ISSUES OF THEORY
The processes that have taken place in the world economy in recent years clearly demonstrate that the ideological convictions that prevail in different countries have a tangible impact on the economic policies they pursue, while the provisions of economic science sometimes prove to have no significant impact on them. Although the influence of political ideologies on the economy has been repeatedly addressed at both the macro and micro levels of economic processes, ideologies themselves, as types of subjective information, have rarely become objects of analysis from the point of view of economics, including cognitive one. The purpose of this article is to analyze the existing approaches to the economic analysis of political ideologies and to propose, on this basis, some clarifications of the developed concepts. The task of these clarifications is to outline the opportunities and limitations that exist on the path of the purposeful creation of such ideologies that, having become widely supported by voters, would ensure a more successful achievement of the goals of the economic policy pursued by the state. The analysis carried out is interdisciplinary in nature, drawing on results obtained within the framework of economic, political and biological sciences, as well as social and political psychology and neuroscience.
PUBLIC ECONOMICS
The paper justifies the need to address sustainable characteristics of both individual and collective participants in the processes of economic development strategic planning (EDSP), while existing research mostly focuses on structural and organizational issues. Our study shows the relevance of applying the concept of strategic culture with regard to EDSP, although currently it is used by experts in military affairs and international politics. The concept of strategic culture covers in-depth attitudes of individuals rooted in their values and manifested in the stereotypes of strategic thinking, the choice of ways to respond to key challenges, and exploration of significant opportunities. We propose a conceptual framework for EDSP culture research and an approach to empirical validation of EDSP diversity. Owing to a lack of information about in-depth attitudes of EDSP direct participants, the potential of this approach is shown based on the data on the attitude of academic economists to the problem of strategic planning. The results of a survey conducted by the New Economic Association were used for this purpose.
The striking contrast between Russian territories in terms of fiscal capacity led more than 30 years ago to the creation of a special federal methodology for allocating transfers to equalize fiscal capacity, designed to bring the level of budget services in outsider regions closer to the Russian average. This task remains relevant in present. At the same time, in official documents and most literary sources the fundamental question of what is meant by equalizing fiscal capacity is either not directly discussed or obscured. This work is devoted to the study of the following questions: what is the main content of the fiscal equalization policy, what criteria of convergence (differentiation) does it rely on, what are its actual results in the current and long-term retrospective? Based on data from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, it is possible to correctly calculate the level of fiscal capacity after providing transfers to a particular region relative to the national average. In order to present a more complete picture of regional fiscal capacity, both before and after the allocation of subsidies, along with its systemic characteristics, private indicators were used that characterize the ratio of fiscal capacity to 5, 10, 20, 40 leading regions and the same number of outsiders. Calculations show that the potential for convergence of fiscal capacity indicators inherent in the Methodology was almost exhausted by about the middle of the 2010s. It can be assumed that the fundamental reasons for the convergence and stratification of fiscal capacity indicators are related not so much to the policy of equalization as to the circumstances beyond it.
MACROECONOMICS
This paper develops a system for assessing the tightness of monetary conditions in Russia using monetary-conditions indices. These indices make it possible to study the pass-through of the monetary policy impulse across key channels of the transmission mechanism and to identify shocks to monetary conditions. Short-term money market rates, which are most sensitive to changes in the central bank’s policy rate, affect mediumand long-term rates to varying degrees. This heterogeneity is driven, among other factors, by expectations and sentiment of participants in financial and money markets, market volatility, fiscal policy, and external shocks. To trace the operation of the transmission mechanism, we construct indices based on a broad set of economic variables that characterize monetary conditions. The information set includes indicators reflecting price and non-price conditions, as well as survey-based measures—market participants’ assessments of current conditions. We build a system of indices to account for structural changes and to identify shocks to monetary conditions. The results align well with empirical patterns in historical data, indicating the feasibility of real-time monitoring of the tightness of monetary conditions and the impact of external shocks on their dynamics.
LABOR AND SOCIAL ECONOMICS
This article evaluates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies on changes in the number of employed workers in Russian enterprises. For the analysis, data from the enterprise survey for the years 2022—2023 were used. The data is representative of Russia. The estimates were obtained using econometric methods. The endogeneity of the regressor (AI) was taken into account in the estimation equations. The results showed that Russia belongs to the group of leading countries in the application of AI technologies by enterprises. At the same time, enterprises that implement AI technologies observed a reduction in the number of employed workers this year compared to the previous year. However, the effects of AI technologies on employment are heterogeneous and vary by the size of the enterprises. The reduction in the number of employed workers was present in large and small enterprises. At the same time, there was an increase in the number of employed workers at medium-sized enterprises. To overcome the problem of workforce reduction and staff shortages, enterprises are recommended to implement continuous training of employees in digital technologies.
FINANCIAL ECONOMICS
The events of 2022—2023 created a setting for a quasi-natural experiment that makes it possible to assess how the Bank of Russia’s support measures influenced the stock-market valuation of banks. While the general external environment affected all participants in the equity market, banks experienced an additional influence not faced by other companies—namely, the support measures introduced by the Bank of Russia in 2022. A quantitative assessment of the effects of Russia’s macroprudential-easing policy shows that these measures acted as an extra factor supporting banks’ market value. Specifically, the share prices of banks covered by the supportive macroprudential policy changed less than those of other firms.
DEBATING SOCIETY
The article presents some of the author’s reflections on the role played by economic narratives in the formation of economic policy in Russia in the first quarter of the 21st century. In the author’s opinion, by now Russian economic policy has found itself in the “trap of narratives” that have dominated the intellectual economic environment for at least 20 years. The author notes a shift in the semantics of scientific research, which is expressed in the gradual decline in the popularity of economic growth and increased attention to monetary factors of development, inflation and financial stability. At the same time, the article shows that the Bank of Russia assumed the role of the main macroeconomic ideologist and regulator, and the key rate became the most important instrument of its monetary policy. The author defines the focus of the regulator’s efforts on monetary instruments of economic policy and, above all, the interest rate as a “narrative trap”. The author presents his view on how and why this economy found itself in this trap, hoping that his conclusions will help in the search for new approaches to the management of complex economic processes in a difficult period of global economic transformation.
The article examines the impact of the monopolization of the digital scientometric platform services market in Russia. Special attention is given to the analysis of methodological and technological limitations of Russia’s leading provider of scientometric data — eLIBRARY (RSCI) platform, including slow and partial innovations, limited integration into the international scientific community, and insufficient instrumental support for the methodological aspect of scientometric evaluation. The relationship between industrial and competition policy tools is considered for overcoming existing barriers for alternative scientometric solutions. The design of mechanisms for these two economic policy directions becomes particularly significant in light of structural alternatives for scientometric and bibliographic support of research activities. The article proposes ways to eliminate coordination flaws resulting from the monopolization of the digital infrastructure of scientific communication. Competitive pressure can be increased through agile technology companies capable of correctly integrating modern artificial intelligence and machine learning solutions with the methodological specifics of the scientific context.