The world  economy  has recently experienced a strong inflationary shock, which  the leading research  institutions and central banks  were unable to predict. In advanced economies  inflation rates spiked  up to levels  had  not been seen for decades. Inflation also hit emerging  economies albeit the shocks of such magnitude are more common for the countries of this group. What was the reason of the inflationary wave of 2021-2002  and why was it unexpected? In the paper  we propose that the main driver  of inflation was the rapid  recovery  of aggregate demand  while aggregate supply  lagged  behind  since it was negatively affected by quarantine restrictions and  supply  chain  disruptions. A sharp  increase  in the  prices  of food and  energy  contributed to inflation significantly. Unprecedented fiscal  stimulus supported by liquidity injections from central banks  was also an important factor in boosting demand  and  accelerating inflation. Sharp  turn towards ultra­loose monetary and fiscal  policy  can be largely attributed to the  experience of the  previous decade  which  showed  that inflation in advanced economies  remained below the  target level, despite constant stimulus. We discuss  arguments considered by central banks when they kept monetary policy soft even after inflation significantly exceeded  the  target levels. Finally, we briefly  discuss scenarios  of possible  future inflation, including a stagflation scenario, and  analyze  their  underlying factors.

The regular economic crisis prompts macroeconomists to revise their  models. The monetary policy is no exception. As a result of the  “Great Recession” in 2007-2009 and  the  COVID-­19 pandemic in 2020-2021, they  were  forced  to refresh a look at the  monetary policy models that define central bank’s short­term interest rate decisions. The principles of the  New Keynesian economics  lie behind  most modern  models of monetary policy. A set of equations based on several  theoretical assumptions and simplifications leads to certain model conclusions. An active work to review the New Keynesian models in the 2020s is under  way. Key improvements include financial sector modeling; replacing rational expectations with  their alternatives, as well  as representative economic  agents with  heterogeneous ones; finding microeconomic foundations for assumptions; and  fiscal  policy  modeling.

In 2022 political issues made significant adjustments to individual economic plans of hundreds of millions of people around the  world. Against this background, the idea  of  industrial regulation is gaining popularity again  as  a  means  to overcome the  shocks that have arisen. However, how effective is such a mechanism for coordinating efforts to adapt to changes? In our article, we propose  to look at the  problem through the  analysis  of two models  of man:  the  entrepreneur in Austrian economics  and  the  limited rational person  in the  transaction costs economics. Based  on the  results of the  analysis  we reconstruct the  process  of adapting the  market  (or industry) to the shock  using  a formalized model  of the  game  theory. The model  allows  us to demonstrate two key informational problems of adaptation to changes:  individuals’ limited rationality and  their heterogeneity in terms of “entrepreneurial alertness”. For  industrial policy, this means  the  expediency of comparing the  regulatory intervention’s benefits and costs during the  shock period, taking into account the  entrepreneurs’ advantage over the  regulator in the  collection and  use of dispersed knowledge.

The  purpose  of  the  article is to provide   theoretical and  empirical evidence  that narrative analysis  in economics  is not an integral part of qualitative research  and  is quite compatible with  the  methodology of quantitative research. The development of methods for collecting and  processing data is one of the significant directions in the development of both  empirical and theoretical research  in economics. Of  particular importance to this  direction is the  consistent expansion of the  consideration of social  factors in the  study of decision-making  processes, both  at the micro  and  macro  levels. Narrative economics, which  has  emerged  and  developed in  the  last decade, is an  integral part of this  trend. The article proposes  and  substantiates a methodology for empirical analysis  of narratives considered as sources  of quantitative information used in decision  making. This  distinguishes it from  the  methods of narrative analysis used in qualitative research  in the  social  sciences, although they  are not always distinguished in the literature. The technique combines  the search  for the frequency  of occurrence of various  phrases  on the Internet with  interview analysis, which  significantly reduces  the  time and  effort required to search  and  analyze the necessary  information about social  factors. The  effectiveness of the  proposed  methodology is tested on the  example  of the  analysis  of narratives that characterize personal entrepreneurial networks, no statistical information about which  is collected, although the  networks  themselves play  an important role in the  formation of new small  businesses. The presented results of the  analysis show that the  technique makes it possible  to obtain useful  quantitative data on such objects of economic  research.

The  paper   assesses  some  of  the consequences of  Russia’s   accession  to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Whereas much discussion  about its costs and  benefits  happened during the WTO negotiations  and  in  the first years after the  accession, there  was little said  on the  real  consequences afterwards. The aim of the  research  is to assess the  degree  of fulfillment of the  accession expectations after a decade. The research  method is the  analysis  of panel  data on the world  trade for 2000-2019  (an econometric model based on the  gravity model of foreign  trade). It has been  established that the  WTO accession  ultimately benefited for  Russian  foreign  trade. However, this  effect has  been  offset by increased political tensions since 2014. The objections to the  WTO also turned out to be predominantly justified. The most positive economic  consequences of the  WTO exist for exporters of low value added  goods. The criticism of the  WTO participation by machine  builders is understandable: although they  are among the  beneficiaries, the  effects on exports and  imports are comparable.

Some institutions can restrict or stimulate the  business activity, which affects long­term economic  growth. To assess this  influence on regional level, we have collected and processed  historical data on the  distribution of serfs, the  creation of universities, and  business  activity over  more  than a century. By business activity, we mean various  direct and  indirect assessments of the  involvement of the  population in entrepreneurial activity: merchants, NEPmen, cooperatives, small businesses, etc. Although the  geography of business  activity has constantly changed, we can  identify  relatively stable centers  (Moscow,  St. Petersburg, the  south  of the  Far Eastern Russia) and the  periphery (some regions of the  North Caucasus, the Central  Black   Earth  and   the Volga   regions).  Econometric calculations confirm  the  existence of a relationship between the  current density of small businesses  in the  Russian  regions and the  density of cooperatives in the  late Soviet period; the  relationship with  the  density of retail enterprises disappears by the 1970s as the planned economy  strengthens. But the relationship  with the  merchant class is ambiguous: only  in some regions  did  the  entrepreneurial culture manage  to survive  the  Soviet period. We distinguish three  main channels of  influence of  the historical level  of  business  activity on  the  modern  one: geographical, functional, and  socio­cultural.  According to the calculations, the  earlier  emergence  of universities in the  regions  contributed to the  spread  of business  culture and could stimulate the  emergence  of more inclusive institutions, but serfdom, as an extractive institution, on the  contrary, could  limit incentives for entrepreneurship. Even  after a radical change  in the  political and  economic regime, the  influence of extractive institutions on business  activity may persist, and  inclusive institutions take a significant amount of time to take root.

Among  the large-scale processes   that  caused   the greatest  damage   to the  Russian  economy and population in the  1990s and significantly undermined the prestige of the reformers, non-payments occupied  a special  place. To minimize their negative  impact, long-time  efforts  were  made  by the government, the  presidential administration and  business  (the author of this  article had  to actively participate in this). The article describes  the  scale, depth and  duration of this phenomenon, analyzes  the  descriptions of its causes and ways to overcome it presented in the scientific literature, proposes  the author’s understanding of the  causes and real mechanisms of solution, formulates additions to the  original concept of reform  developed by a group  of Moscow  and  Leningrad scientists in the  second  half  of the  1980-x.