The article presents initial findings of a research project aimed at analyzing the impact of the “second wave” of sanctions in 2022 on the behavior of Russian companies, assesses their actions to adapt to the new conditions. This paper is based on survey data collected from managers of 1860 Russian manufacturing companies between August and November 2022. Despite the severity and scope of the sanctions, one third of the companies did not take adaptation measures, particularly local, technologically backward firms without innovative activity. On the whole, firms integrated into the global economy reacted more actively to new threats than those confined to the domestic market. We found significant variability in companies’ responses to the sanctions shock. Four basic quasistrategies of firms’ response are identified. The first one involved reducing current activities, employment, and investments. These actions were most common in industries integrated into global value chains, notably automotive industry and wood processing. The second strategy included simplifying products to reduce dependence on imports, finding new markets, and changing investment directions — typically seen in pharmaceutical firms. The third one consisted of altering supply channels for materials and components, and it was frequently adopted by manufacturers of rubber and plastic products. The fourth strategy focused on digitalization, developing new products, and increasing interaction with authorities. This was characteristic of industries whose markets have carved out niches due to the exits of major foreign players, in particular, manufacture of furniture. We highlight the following recommendations for the state anti-crisis policy: In 2022, the relative success of companies’ adaptation was associated with the implementation of “easy” import substitution. However, in the future there will be a need to prioritize support for the development of domestic technologies and increased access to knowledge. In conditions of high uncertainty, it is crucial to assist companies in building their own value chains, and predictability of government actions appears to be a significant factor in enhancing private initiative.

In 2023, there is an improvement in the trends of economic dynamics in the global economy, but there is a high probability that it will be only temporal. The processes of fragmentation of the world economy are intensifying, previous indicators of the state of the economy are becoming less informative. Regulators face a difficult choice regarding the mechanisms of economic policy. Russia is in no less difficult conditions, given the negative effect of the sanctions that are being implemented against it. Increasing the strength of the domestic economy and forming stable conditions in the financial market are the most important prerequisites for the successful solution of emerging problems.

We examine the division of countries according to their political attitude towards Russia after the launch of a special military operation in Ukraine and the introduction of large-scale sanctions, and illustrate the importance of sanctions and political attitude to Russia for countries’ exports there with the available statistical data. The countries are clustered by their participation in sanctions pressure on Russia and voting on six UN resolutions condemning Russia’s actions. Except for hostile countries, we distinguish three groups of friendly countries — “cautious” (voting for UN resolutions), “wavering” (non-systematic voting), and “sympathetic” (voting against resolutions or ignoring them). According to mirror data on foreign trade with Russia, most countries which increased their exports to Russia in 2022 belong to the “sympathizers” group. Relying on the evidence from the EU and China, we demonstrate that imports of sanctioned goods are redistributed more actively than other imports. We list major products which imports were redistributed successfully or unsuccessfully.

Over the past decades, incoming flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) to developing countries have increased significantly. However, the share of accumulated incoming direct investments of these countries in the global volume of incoming direct investments remains unchanged. This may indicate the shortterm nature of these investments due to the lack of investors’ motivation to make long-term investments in these countries. In our paper, we make an attempt to identify the most significant determinants of flows of inward foreign direct investment to developing countries based on statistics on bilateral flows of such investments for the period of 2009—2021. For this purpose, we have constructed a gravity model of foreign direct investment. In contrast to the previous studies we have focused on the factor of technological proximity between countries. Firstly, the estimation results allow us to conclude that technological proximity between a recipient country and an investor country has a significant impact on the volume of FDI inflows to developing countries. Secondly, this influence is heterogeneous. The proximity of the technological structure of exports between countries contributes to an increase in FDI inflows to a recipient country. At the same time, countries which are close to each other in terms of the level of technological development of exports have a smaller volume of mutual FDI, while a significant excess of the level of technological development of the investor country over that of the recipient one is a factor of additional FDI inflows driven by a resource-seeking motive. Thirdly, based on the obtained results, we have revealed a list of countries that are the most attractive for Russia in terms of increasing the volume of outward FDI.

Systemic risks in the framework of central banks’ unconventional monetary policy (UMP) have so far received little attention in the modern economic literature. Based on evidence from the UMP of the European Central Bank (ECB), we contribute to this research area by differentiating systemic risks between materialized systemic risks (financial stress) and their potential level (expected capital shortfall in the banking system during crises). Besides, our paper assesses the asymmetric effects of expansionary and contractionary UMP. The empirical analysis covers the period from 2009 to 2022 and applies structural vector autoregressions with zero and sign constraints on the model parameters. We have found that materialized systemic risks decline in response to expansionary UMP and increase after the ECB’s contractionary measures. Potential systemic risks demonstrate a backlash, and their increase after the expansionary shock outweighs the decrease in response to the contractionary measures in modulus. The research results show the need to combine a long-lasting stimulating UMP together with the tightening measures in ensuring financial stability.

Modern specifications of the Phillips curve are actively used in the study of inflation dynamics, but many of them do not consider the influence of external variables. In this paper, we use a non-linear GMM to estimate the Phillips curve equation for a small open economy which includes the expected change in the exchange rate on Russian data. Estimates show that the assignment of the new head of the Bank of Russia in 2013 and the subsequent transition to the inflation targeting regime significantly reduced the impact of expectations of a change in the ruble exchange rate on inflation which confirms the efficiency of the modification of the monetary policy regime. Another interesting result is that the outbreak of the pandemic has again led to an increase in the impact of the expected change in the exchange rate on inflation which may be a result of increased uncertainty in import prices. The empirical results also show that the pandemic caused a decrease in price rigidity in the Russian economy while the transition to an inflation targeting regime did not affect price rigidity.

The theory of switching modes of reproduction (SMR) is a relatively new branch of heterodox macroeconomic theory. The SMR-models have two distinctive properties: they allow endogenous economic cycles and posess non-neutrality of money in the long term. The latter property means that in the SMR-models monetary expansion can effectively stimulate economic growth. The original form of the SMR-models (a complicated system of differential equations) makes them difficult for general theoretical analysis. In this article I propose a simpler version of the SMR-model in discrete time, for which, under certain assumptions, an explicit closed-form solution is derived. I use a formalism that is close to that accepted in the macroeconomic mainstream. All key structural features of the original SMR-model were retained, and the constructed model has the two properties mentioned. The model is used to identify particular assumptions that lead to existence of fluctuations and non-neutrality of money. It is shown that endogenous fluctuations are associated with very specific and not entirely realistic assumptions about the process of formation and depreciation of fixed capital. It is also revealed that the non-neutrality of money in the SMR-theory arises from the assumption that financial constraints are the only constraints of the investment process. Equivalently, this assumption can be re-formulated as a postulate of the unlimited labor supply with the exceptional ability of monetary expansion to employ it. If we adjust the model by adding the condition of limited labor supply, then money becomes neutral, and monetary stimulus loses its effectiveness. Based on the findings, the recommendation to rely on monetary easing in order to accelerate economic growth which is advocated by the authors of the original SRM-theory is called into question.

In modern conditions, the issues of choosing a reasonable balance between antitrust and economic regulation, instruments of antimonopoly and industrial policy — vertical and horizontal — have become actualized. This is due to the fact that several factors have intertwined: digitalization that transforms the usual business models and ideas about acceptable conditions for the functioning of markets; the search for solutions to the problems of sustainable development (low-carbon economy); a dramatic change in geopolitical conditions of doing business in Russia. In 2023, the Chair of Competition and Industrial Policy of the Faculty of Economics of Lomonosov Moscow State University turned 10 years old. On June 14, 2023 an anniversary conference was held to discuss a wide range of issues that the school of institutional studies of competition, industrial and competition policy, which has been formed in Russia, touches upon in its research. Within the framework of the conference, a round table was held on applied issues of antimonopoly and industrial policies in new conditions. Researchers, practicing consultants, and business representatives were invited to the discussion.