The 2025 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt, and Joel Mokyr for their research on innovationdriven economic growth. One half of prize was devoted to Joel Mokyr for having identified the prerequisites for sustained growth through technological progress and the other half jointly to Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt for the model of sustained growth through creative destruction. The paper discusses theoretical contribution of the laureates in understanding the deep sources of modern economic growth. It also provides the short survey of the results of their research in areas of endogenous growth theory, understanding the Great Enrichment phenomenon, technological, institutional and cultural change. 

The paper traces the long history of debates on the reliability of knowledge in the social sciences. The discussion was most intense among philosophers (materialists, various strands of positivism, and proponents of linguistic philosophy), yet its outcomes also shaped the work of economists, sociologists, and political scientists. Logical positivism, which dominated in the 1920s and 1930s, conflicted with the agenda of the “econometric revolution”. Popper’s critique of induction as a basis for reliable knowledge resonates with Friedman’s instrumentalism and his acceptance of unrealistic assumptions. The ideas of Kuhn, Lakatos, and Feyerabend were reflected in the growing fragmentation of economics and the coexistence of multiple, often competing research  programmes. Because economists cannot directly “relive” political and economic history, attention increasingly shifted to rhetoric, as McCloskey argued. Earlier, Wittgenstein had stressed the relative autonomy of language, while Austin and Searle developed speech act theory. Performativity—understood as a constitutive element of utterances—has become central to contemporary analyses of the attention economy. The tensions between scholastic traditions and emerging discursive shifts accompanying new research programmes can be usefully described through Fuller’s concept of post-truth. As a result, many contemporary economists pay little attention to methodological debates, relying on “econometric faith” and constructing “plausible worlds”.

This article is devoted to the analysis of one of the key principles of optimal law enforcement in the economic theory of crime and punishment — the principle of marginal deterrence. Despite its importance of for organizing an effective fight against crime, there is no consensus understanding of it even at the theoretical level, which makes it difficult to empirically test the effectiveness of marginal deterrence. Here we consider in detail alternative approaches of researchers to understanding this principle, as well as the impact that different understandings have on the optimal policy of public law enforcement and crime deterrence. In this article, we also propose an original model of marginal deterrence that fills a noticeable theoretical gap: the crimes between which a potential offender chooses in our model differ from each other not in the income they can bring him, but in the probability for him to avoid punishment. The main conclusion: the severity of punishment for a crime with a higher probability of detection, in general law enforcement, not only has an internal optimum, but most likely this optimum will be lower than the traditional solution for cases where it exists, in which the optimal severity of punishment is equal to the amount of damage caused to society by the offense, divided by the probability of punishment. This result also holds for cases where the social damage from a crime with a lower probability of detection and punishment of the offender does not exceed the similar damage for an alternative crime characterized by a higher probability of detection.

The paper examines how diagnostic expectations — that is, agents’ excessive reaction to recent information — affect the effectiveness of monetary policy in the Russian economy. To investigate this, we rely on a DSGE model that allows for an alternative mechanism of expectation formation. We calibrate the model to Russian macroeconomic data using Bayesian parameter estimation methods. Our results are as follows: (1) the model incorporating diagnostic expectations fits Russian data better than the model based on full rationality of economic agents; (2) diagnostic expectations alter the operation of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, amplifying inflationary pressures when the key policy rate is reduced; (3) if this change is ignored, relying on the (inaccurate) assumption of rational expectations, monetary easing may lead to excessively high inflation. In the paper, we show how the monetary policy rule should be refined to avoid this undesirable effect.

The article shows structural changes in the relationship between the mortgage rate and MIACR (Moscow Interbank Actual Credit Rate), identified in the analysis of the dynamics of weighted average mortgage rates (published on the website of the Bank of Russia) in Russian regions for 2022—2025. The rates of residential mortgage loans and MIACR were multidirectional, and fluctuations in mortgage rates became more frequent. The structural changes are due to the countercyclical policy of the Bank of Russia, the expectations of large banks of a key interest rate reduction, the wide coverage of borrowers with preferential mortgage programs, and refinancing. The spread of mortgage rates among regions has increased due to the heterogeneity of consumers and the uneven presence of regional banks in the regions. The indicated violations of the connection between the mortgage rates and MIACR appeared differently. To account for the heterogeneity, the regions of Russia were divided into 5 main clusters using the K-Means method. A forecast of regional mortgage rates for 2025—2026 has been built for each region separately.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, remote employment demonstrated explosive growth in almost all countries, including Russia. Despite a precipitous decline in its utilization in the post-pandemic period, it persists as a significant emerging form of non-standard employment. The present study is the first to provide quantitative estimates of the wage premium for remote work within the context of the Russian labour market. The different mechаnisms that can impact the earnings of remote workers both positively and negatively are considered in detail. The empirical basis of the analysis is the RLMS HSE microdata for 2020—2023. The findings of the study are consistent with the majority of other research conducted in various countries, which indicates that remote workers are paid more than non—remote ones. As econometric analysis indicates, the premium for distance work can reach 25—35%. It is approximately 1,5 times higher for men than for women. The use of advanced analytical methods (Oster procedure, natural experiment methodology) confirms the existence of a wage effect generated by remote employment. 

The return to power of Donald Trump, a major businessman unencumbered by academic dogma, was based on slogans resonating with traditional America, economic and political superiority. The previous liberal-progressive dogma of Joe Biden’s day did not withstand a direct confrontation with the energy of Trump and his opponents in a two-party system. The broad coverage of trading partners by increased import duties puts the US in a situation of a large and complex experiment with breaking the usual parameters (and dogmas) on issues of competition and impact on consumer welfare in the country. The new old president is keeping several important industrial policy laws in place and continuing his policy of low business taxes and reduced spending on climate programs (which is basically a dogma). At the same time, he is making a dramatic and risky attempt to influence macroeconomic parameters (budget deficit) and trade and economic parameters (reducing the trade deficit, increasing the inflow of direct investment), shifting taxation from income to consumption, and increasing trade tariffs. By the end of 2025, the temporary equilibrium had been reached in the tariff arena in relations with the European Union, while conflict delayed and difficult negotiations continued with China. The key instrument of long-term domestic economic policy — OВВВ — was approved by the country’s Congress. It is this act that will determine the main parameters for breaking the old model of development and the legacy of Donald Trump. The drama of the Republican president’s steps is partly defined by the need to compress the period of radical shifts with the transition to the 2026 and 2028 election campaigns.

The article reviews the book “Institutions of unsustainable success” by Irina Filippova, Ivan Shabalov and Andrei Shastitko. It is devoted to the explanation of the emergence and development of transaction governance in the production of large-diameter pipe (LDP) production in Russia in early 2000s. The specific feature of the sector is the dependence of the return on investments by independent selfish agents on the coordination of individual decision-making along the value chain, from the producers of raw materials and intermediate output to the manufacturing of finished product, construction, transportation, and the industrial customer. Compliance with the quality standards requires explicit coordination as well. One should think about proper transaction governance in complex investment projects of import substitution under sanction pressure. We also return to the debates about the content of university curricula for economists, especially for those who will make decisions on strategic development projects in the future.