Preview

Voprosy Ekonomiki

Advanced search
Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription Access
No 6 (2023)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)

ISSUES OF THEORY

5-35 999
Abstract

The paper explores a curious phenomenon in the modern economic science — the intellectual confrontation between proponents of new development economics (“randomistas”) and its opponents. The general message of the new approach is that the technique of randomized controlled trials/experiments (RCT) must be considered the only truly scientific method, and only this technique should be used in studying the problems of developing countries. RCTs have been recognized as the “gold standard” in evaluating the effectiveness of anti-poverty programs; today this approach absolutely dominates in development economics. The paper discusses the main features of the RCT economics: an inclination to imitate biomedical research; atheoretical character; the idea of a hierarchy of methods; reorientation from large-scale macroeconomic and institutional reforms to targeted social and humanitarian interventions. The problems of internal and external validity of RCT are highlighted. A general conclusion is that conceptually counter-arguments of critics look more convincing: the idea of a hierarchy of methods is unscientific; no methodological “gold standard” exists in economic analysis; estimates obtained on the basis of RCT cannot be considered unbiased; RCTs are almost powerless in the face of the problem of external validity; policy recommendations derived from RCTs are of very limited practical value. However, the logic of critics has been trumped by the rhetoric of randomistas: most likely, randomized experiments will escalate, and their intellectual and political influence will grow.

FINANCIAL ECONOMICS

36-61 651
Abstract

The research relies on the uniquely extracted dataset of loan offered rates at the start of 2022. We justify that the larger banks are more prone to disclose such offers. Content-wise we are able to disentangle the loan-specific credit risk factors and the bank risk-appetite drivers. We show that banks using own data and models to compute prudential ratios (IRB-banks) tend to evaluate the credit risk more conservatively than the rest of the banks.

62-75 702
Abstract

The capital structure is determined by the ratio of the company’s own and borrowed funds. It has a direct impact on the financial stability of the company, profit and return on equity. Thus a reasonable calculation of the value of the specified ratio is an urgent problem for any large enterprise. The correct ratio of borrowed and own capital in the structure of the aggregate corporate capital will allow to provide the specified return from the use of own capital in changing market conditions. The methodology of optimizing the structure of capital proposed by the authors is based on a formula for increasing return on equity (ROE) as a function of three variables — return on sales (ROS), resource productivity (Y) and equity multiplier M. The interpretation of the DuPont model as a model with lagged variables is original, which allows to predict the change in the equity multiplier at the expense of possible increase in other variables: resource productivity and return on sales, provided that the return on equity will reach the target level. There have been obtained formulas which allow modeling the structure of capital that guarantees a given profitability. The heuristic principle based on the three-factor model of DuPont ROE = ROS×Y×M, was that keeping the return on equity at the same level (as compared with the reference period) should entail compensation for the multidirectional dynamics of return on sales, resource productivity and equity multiplier. The paper considers three variants of the dependence of changes in the ratio of equity and borrowed capital of the company: when resource productivity is unchanged (ΔY = 0), when return on sales is unchanged (ΔROS = 0) and when both indicators change simultaneously (ΔY ≠ 0 and ΔROS ≠ 0). The methodology presented by the authors also allows to calculate the structure of capital which would provide a given level of return on equity ROE based on the forecast of return on assets ROS and return on sales Y with reference to the values of ROS and Y calculated in the reference period. We present the testing of this algorithm (in all three variants) on the basis of the reporting data of one of the metallurgical companies of Russia for the period 2017—2019.

76-93 763
Abstract

The paper presents the results of an analysis of the relationship between financial and economic development In Russian regions. The authors focus on one of the transmission channels of this relationship — the channel of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The issue of the SMEs’ dependence on the access to credit in the literature is generally considered separately from the issue of the impact of small business on economic dynamics. In this study, both issues are combined in one chain of the theoretical analysis and are examined with the help of an econometric model using credit depth measures as instrumental variables. To track the SMEs’ development, three variables were defined to characterize the size of the SME sector, the share of SMEs in the structure of the private sector, and the operational efficiency of small enterprises. Our data refer to the subjects of RF and cover the period from 2008 to 2019. The results confirm the Russian SMEs sector’s ability to act as a transmission channel from financial deepening to output growth. The most reliable variables are those characterizing the size of the SMEs sector in the region and the revenue of small firms per employee. Our findings support the conclusions made in a large number of works that provide evidence of the crucial importance of the conditions for access to external finance to raise the SMEs’ performance. The results we obtained also confirm that it would be reasonable to put special emphasis on overcoming obstacles in the access of SMEs to external financing when they take initiatives to develop SMEs in the regions.

LABOR AND SOCIAL ECONOMICS

94-116 836
Abstract

We study the dependence of wages on ages of individuals based on RLMS-HSE microdata for individuals aged 25—55 years for the period 2000— 2019 in Russia. A quadratic dependence of wages on the age of an individual is assumed for cross-sectional models, while shifts of cross-sectional wage profiles over time are described by the dynamics of the gross regional product. The model parameters are estimated for different social groups, separated by gender and educational level, based on a model with random effects, which allows us to obtain the most effective parameter estimates based on both within-group and between-group variation in the data. The estimates obtained can be used in calibration of general equilibrium models with overlapping generations. We touch upon the problem of reducing wages in ages close to retirement and discuss possible reasons for this decrease. We also estimate minimal economic growth rates, forcing the wage rates to increase until the individual reaches the ages of 55, 60 and 65.

117-137 634
Abstract

The problems of financial regulation of poverty and income inequality in Russia are widely discussed in the scientific literature. One of the important aspects in this area is efficiency assessment, which should be the basis for developing solutions that contribute to the growth of the Russian population welfare. This article develops a comprehensive methodology for assessing the effectiveness of the system of state financial regulation of poverty and income inequality In Russian regions on the basis of the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method and regression analysis. The information base contains the indicators of socioeconomic development of Russian regions for the period from 2017 to 2021. The analysis algorithm of the technical efficiency of budget expenditures on social policy has been developed and tested. The research novelty is the application of the DEA method taking into account the theory of regulation of income inequality by F. Bourguignon. The paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the regions’ efficiency and identifies the determinants of the efficiency indicators: the size of the regional economy and the level of income per capita; the share of poor citizens in the region; indicators of regional demographic development (fertility, mortality), etc.

DEBATING SOCIETY

138-158 690
Abstract

The article is devoted to the problem of improving the governance of publication systems, within which their actors interact in producing scientific publications, supplying them to readers, as well as in funding and coordinating corresponding processes. It is emphasized that the ownership of a scientific text includes two components: the right to a monetary reward for the use of the article by the consumer and authorship. The first component can be passed to another person, but the second cannot. Authorship is the basis for building up an individual intangible asset, which we call authorship capital. The desire to increase it determines the dual role of the author in the publication system: he is not only a producer of the knowledge embodied in the article, but also, along with the reader, its ultimate consumer. The dual role of the journal is also noted, which, organizing the review process, turns out to be not only a supplier of articles, but also a producer of knowledge. These two features give rise to a variety of possible financing schemes for publishing systems. The specific features of knowledge as a private and public good are analyzed. One of them is the high cost of knowledge consumption. Due to this and a number of other circumstances, the market model for financing publication systems is inefficient; the most important task is the transition to open access. Such a transition should be accompanied by improved methods for evaluating the performance of researchers and the quality of journals. The comparison of large groups of objects (e. g., journals or research institutions) is inevitably based on citation indicators, while expertise can play only a supporting role. On the contrary, when it comes to making decisions within a small group, e. g., when allocating given funds among laboratory members, expert evaluations must play a decisive role. The directions of reform of the Russian publication system are discussed, ensuring the reduction of rent-seeking activity and increasing the adequacy of the indicators used.



ISSN 0042-8736 (Print)