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«Рандомисты»: новая экономика развития
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-5-35
Аннотация
Работа посвящена необычному явлению в современной экономической науке — интеллектуальному противостоянию между сторонниками «новой экономики развития» («рандомистами») и ее противниками. Общий посыл нового подхода в том, что единственным научным методом следует считать технику рандомизированных контролируемых испытаний (randomized controlled trials, RCT) и при изучении проблем развивающихся стран использовать только ее. RCT были признаны «золотым стандартом» при оценке эффективности программ борьбы с бедностью; сегодня это направление абсолютно доминирует в экономике развития. В работе рассматриваются главные отличительные черты экономики RCT: стремление подражать медико-биологическим исследованиям; атеоретический характер; идея иерархии методов; переориентация от масштабных макроэкономических и институциональных реформ на точечные социальные и гуманитарные интервенции. Обсуждаются проблемы внутренней и внешней валидности RCT. Анализ позволяет сделать вывод, что с концептуальной точки зрения убедительнее позиция критиков: идея иерархии методов ненаучна; методологического «золотого стандарта» в экономическом анализе не существует; получаемые с помощью RCT оценки нельзя считать несмещенными; RCT бессильны перед проблемой внешней валидности; политические рекомендации, вырабатываемые на их основе, имеют ограниченную практическую ценность. Однако логика критиков оказалась слабее риторики рандомистов: скорее всего, поток рандомистских исследований будет становиться все шире, а их интеллектуальное и политическое влияние — все сильнее.
Об авторе
Р. И. Капелюшников
Национальный исследовательский институт мировой экономики и международных Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»
Россия
Россия
Капелюшников Ростислав Исаакович, член-корреспондинт РАН, доктор экономических наук., главный научный сотрудник . ИМЭМО РАН; замдиректора Центра трудовых исследований НИУ ВШЭ
Москва
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Для цитирования:
Капелюшников Р.И. «Рандомисты»: новая экономика развития. Вопросы экономики. 2023;(6):5-35. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-5-35
For citation:
Kapeliushnikov R.I. “Randomistas”: A new development economics. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2023;(6):5-35. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-5-35
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