Generate QR code
Open Access
Subscription Access
Development of Russian agri-food exports under sanctions: Trends, factors, and prospects
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2026-10-45-67
Abstract
This paper focuses on analyzing the factors which determine the development of Russia’s agricultural exports in the context of structural changes resulting from sanctions and the subsequent shift in trade flows to friendly and neutral countries. This analysis utilizes a structural gravity model that takes into account internal trade flows. The assessment confirmed that the shared border, the BRICS intergovernmental organization, and sanctions, including those combined with the political events that prompted their introduction, have a positive and statistically significant impact on agricultural exports, while trade policies of importing countries are not a key factor. An assessment of the border effect showed that the Russian border reduces the trade flow of agricultural raw materials and food products by 1.99 times, meaning that for Russia, this effect is comparable in scale to other countries, and growing volumes of domestically produced goods are relatively freely redirected from domestic producers to international partners. The paper presents a forecast model, as well as estimates of the development of exports of Russian agricultural products in the future, obtained on its basis.
About the Author
K. G. Borodin
Nikonov All-Russian Institute of Agrarian Problems and Informatics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Konstantin G. Borodin
Moscow
References
1. Alexander D. W., Merkert R. (2021). Applications of gravity models to evaluate and forecast US international air freight markets post-GFC. Transport Policy, Vol. 104, No. 2, pp. 52 — 62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.04.004
2. Anderson J. (1979). A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation. American Economic Review, Vol. 69, No. 1, pp. 106 — 116.
3. Anderson J., van Wincoop E. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle. American Economic Review, Vol. 93, No. 1, pp. 170 — 192. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803321455214
4. Atif R. M., Liu H., Mahmood H. (2017). Pakistan’s agricultural exports, determinants and its potential: An application of stochastic frontier gravity model. Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 257—276. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2016.1243724
5. Ayuda M.-I., Belloc I., Pinilla V. (2022). Latin American agri-food exports, 1994—2019: A gravity model approach. Mathematics, Vol. 10, No. 3, article 333. https://doi.org/10.3390/math10030333
6. Baier S. L., Bergstrand J. H. (2007). Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade? Journal of International Economics, Vol. 71, No. 1, pp. 72 — 95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2006.02.005
7. Bergstrand J. H. (1985). The gravity equation in international trade: Some microeconomic foundations and empirical evidence. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 67, No. 3, pp. 474 — 481. https://doi.org/10.2307/1925976
8. Bergstrand J. H. (1989). The generalized gravity equation, monopolistic competition and the factor-proportions theory in international trade. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 71, No. 1, pp. 143 — 153. https://doi.org/10.2307/1928061
9. Campos R. G., Timini J., Vidal E. (2021). Structural gravity and trade agreements: Does the measurement of domestic trade matter? Economics Letters, Vol. 208, No. C, article 110080. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110080
10. Chevassus-Lozza E., Latouche K., Majkovic D., Unguru M. (2008). The importance of EU-15 borders for CEECs agri-food exports: The role of tariffs and non-tariff measures in the pre-accession period. Food Policy, Vol. 33, No. 6, pp. 595 — 606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2008.07.005
11. Countryman A. M., Litvinov V., Kolodiazhnyi I., Bogonos M., Nivievskyi O. (2025). Global economic effects of war-induced agricultural export declines from Ukraine. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Vol. 47, No. 2, pp. 624 — 665. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13468
12. Ghose T. K., Hudson D., Devadoss S. (2026). U.S. agricultural export potential with South Asian, Southeast Asian, and Southern African countries: A stochastic frontier gravity model approach. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Vol. 58, No. 3, pp. 442 — 464. https://doi.org/10.1017/aae.2026.10041
13. IMF (2025). World economic outlook (WEO) database (April edition). www.imf.org
14. Karlsson J., Melin H., Cullinane K. (2018). The impact of potential Brexit scenarios on German car exports to the UK: An application of the gravity model. Journal of Shipping and Trade, Vol. 3, No. 1, article 12. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-018-0038-x
15. Liu X., Whalley J., Xin X. (2010). Non-tradable goods and the border effect puzzle. Economic Modelling, Vol. 27, No. 5, pp. 909 — 914. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.05.016
16. McCallum J. (1995). National borders matter: Canada—U.S. regional trade patterns. American Economic Review, Vol. 85, No. 3, pp. 615 — 623.
17. Mujahid I., Kalkuhl M. (2016). Do trade agreements increase food trade? The World Economy, Vol. 39, No. 11, pp. 1812 — 1833. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12324
18. OECD, FAO (2015). Aglink-Cosimo model: A partial equilibrium model of world agricultural markets. Paris and Rome.
19. Olper A., Raimondi V. (2008). Agricultural market integration in the OECD: A gravity-border effect approach. Food Policy, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 165 — 175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2007.06.003
20. Poyhonen P. (1963). A tentative model for the volume of trade between countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Vol. 90, No. 1, pp. 93 — 100.
21. Santos Silva J. M. C., Tenreyro S. (2006). The log of gravity. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 88, No. 4, pp. 641 — 658. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.88.4.641
22. Santos Silva J. M. C., Tenreyro S. (2011). Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. Economics Letters, Vol. 112, No. 2, pp. 220—222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2011.05.008
23. Tinbergen J. (1962). Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy. New York: The Twentieth Century Fund.
24. Wonnacott P., Lutz M. (1989). Is there a case for free trade areas? In: J. Schott (ed.). Free trade areas and US trade policy. Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics, pp. 59 — 84.
25. Yotov Y. V. (2022). Gravity at sixty: The workhorse model of trade. CESifo Working Paper, No. 9584. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4037001
26. Yotov Y. V., Piermartini R., Monteiro J.-A., Larch M. (2016). An advanced guide to trade policy analysis: The structural gravity model. Geneva: UNCTAD and WTO. https://doi.org/10.30875/abc0167e-en
Review
For citations:
Borodin K.G. Development of Russian agri-food exports under sanctions: Trends, factors, and prospects. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2026;(10):45-67. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2026-10-45-67
Views:
71
JATS XML
Email this article 