voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2026-10-45-67voprecotest-6259Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICSРазвитие агропродовольственного экспорта России в условиях санкций: тенденции, факторы, перспективыDevelopment of Russian agri-food exports under sanctions: Trends, factors, and prospectshttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6100-8848БородинК. Г.BorodinK. G.

Бородин Константин Григорьевич, д. э. н., доцент, завотделом регулирования аграрных рынков 

Москва

Konstantin G. Borodin 

Moscow 

borkg_cd@mail.ruВсероссийский институт аграрных проблем и информатики имени А. А. НиконоваРоссияNikonov All-Russian Institute of Agrarian Problems and InformaticsRussian Federation2026141020260104567Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20262026Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/6259

С использованием структурной гравитационной модели, учитывающей внутренние торговые потоки, проанализированы факторы развития агропродовольственного экспорта России в условиях структурных изменений, вызванных санкциями и последующим переключением торговых потоков на дружественные и нейтральные страны. Результаты оценки подтвердили, что общая граница, межправительственная организация БРИКС, а также санкции, в том числе в сочетании с политическими событиями, послужившими поводом для их введения, оказывают положительное и статистически значимое влияние на сельскохозяйственный экспорт, причем торговая политика стран-импортеров не относится к ключевым факторам. Оценка пограничного эффекта показала, что фактор российской границы сокращает торговый поток сельскохозяйственного сырья и продовольствия в 1,99 раза, то есть для России этот эффект сопоставим с другими странами, и растущие объемы произведенной в стране продукции относительно свободно поступают международным партнерам. Представлены прогнозная модель развития экспорта продукции АПК России, а также полученные на ее основе оценки.

This paper focuses on analyzing the factors which determine the development of Russia’s agricultural exports in the context of structural changes resulting from sanctions and the subsequent shift in trade flows to friendly and neutral countries. This analysis utilizes a structural gravity model that takes into account internal trade flows. The assessment confirmed that the shared border, the BRICS intergovernmental organization, and sanctions, including those combined with the political events that prompted their introduction, have a positive and statistically significant impact on agricultural exports, while trade policies of importing countries are not a key factor. An assessment of the border effect showed that the Russian border reduces the trade flow of agricultural raw materials and food products by 1.99 times, meaning that for Russia, this effect is comparable in scale to other countries, and growing volumes of domestically produced goods are relatively freely redirected from domestic producers to international partners. The paper presents a forecast model, as well as estimates of the development of exports of Russian agricultural products in the future, obtained on its basis.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.