Generate QR code
Open Access
Subscription Access
Russian household expenditures at the macroeconomic level: Structure, inequality, and impact of tax changes
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2026-5-17-33
Abstract
The article examines personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in Russia during 2005—2023. The aim of the study is to identify the dynamic and structural features of Russian PCE. The analysis covers both volume and price changes in total PCE and PCE of specific product groups. The study period is divided into several phases, each characterized by different patterns of household consumption. A paradox of Russian consumption is highlighted: despite the doubling of total volume of per capita PCE over the past 20 years, its structure, including the share of food expenditures, has remained virtually unchanged. The paradox is explained by uneven volume and price changes of different product groups. Using Rosstat statistics, the article examines differences in the structure of consumer expenditures across household deciles since the mid-2000s. The approach to refining Rosstat data on the inequality of household expenditures by decile groups is described; a comparison of adjusted and official data on the structure of household consumption by decile groups in 2023 is presented. Recent tax changes affecting consumer expenditures are also considered. It is shown that the increase in value-added and income tax rates in 2019—2026 has the largest impact on reducing consumption among the top-income households and workers.
Keywords
personal consumption expenditures,
expenditure structure,
food expenditures,
price level,
value-added tax,
income tax
JEL: D12, H22
About the Authors
A. A. Shirov
Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alexander A. Shirov
Moscow
V. V. Potapenko
Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences
Vadim V. Potapenko
Moscow
K. E. Savchishina
Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences
Kseniya E. Savchishina
Moscow
References
1. Zubarevich N. V., Safronov S. G. (2019). The share of food in total consumption of the population of Russian regions as an indicator of the standard of living and consumption modernization. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta. Seriya 5, Geografiya, No. 2, pp. 61—68. (In Russian).
2. Kapeliushnikov R. I. (2019). Is economic inequality a universal evil? Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 4, pp. 91—106. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2019-4-91-106
3. Kapeliushnikov R. I. (2024). The Beveridge curve: What does it tell us about the stance of the Russian labor market? Journal of the New Economic Association, No. 4, pp. 246—258. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.31737/22212264_2024_4_246-258
4. Kuzminov Y. I., Kruchinskaya E. V. (2025). Drivers of consumer choice on marketplaces for the Russian population: Cost savings and product diversity. Problemy Prognozirovaniya, No. 6, pp. 95—107. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.47711/0868-6351-213-95-107
5. Maleva T. M., Lyashok V. Y. (2024). Labor shortage in Russia: Short-term and long-term effects. Ekonomicheskaya Politika, No. 6, pp. 120—153. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2024-6-120-153
6. Mareeva S. V. (2024). Monetary and non-monetary inequalities in modern Russian society: Dynamics of the recent decade. Sociological Research, No. 9, pp. 3—16. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.31857/S0132162524090012
7. Ordynskaya E. V., Cherkovets M. V., Kostina N. A. (2024). Tax reform: On the issue of tax fairness. Scientific Works: Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, No. 2, pp. 143—160. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.47711/2076-3182-2024-2-143-160
8. Savchishina K. E. (2020). The role of the public sector in redistribution of the national income in the 2010-s. ECO, No. 7, pp. 100—110. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.30680/ECO0131-7652-2020-7-100-110
9. Slobodenyuk E. M. (2022). Social mobility of Russians in terms of life chances and risks. Journal of Economic Sociology, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp. 39—59. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.17323/1726-3247-2022-1-39-59
10. Shagaida N. I., Uzun V. Y., Ternovsky D. S., Shishkina E. A. (2024). Assessment of economic accessibility of food in Russia in the context of food security. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 6, pp. 73—95. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-6-73-95
11. Cherkovets M. V., Moiseev A. K. (2021). Methodical approaches to the analysis of income, expenditures and financial behavior of households by decile groups. Scientific Works: Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vol. 2021, pp. 120—137. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.47711/2076-318-2021-120-137
12. Shirov A. A., Potapenko V. V. (2026). Structure of consumption of Russian households: Can we explain the paradox? Problemy Prognozirovaniya, No. 2, pp. 23—39. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.47711/0868-6351-215-23-39
13. Uzyakova E. S., Milyakin S. R. (2025). Platform employment in the context of modern Russian labor market development. Scientific Works: Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, No. 2, pp. 127—144. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.47711/2076-3182-2025-2-127-144
14. Atkinson A. B., Piketty T., Saez E. (2011). Top incomes in the long run of history. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 3—71. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.49.1.3
15. Barthélemy J., Suesse T. (2018). mipfp: An R package for multidimensional array fitting and simulating multivariate Bernoulli distributions. Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 86, No. 2, pp. 1—20. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v086.c02
16. Benzarti Y., Carloni D., Harju J., Kosonen T. (2020). What goes up may not come down: Asymmetric incidence of value-added taxes. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 128, No. 12, pp. 4438—4474. https://doi.org/10.1086/710558
17. Deaton A., Zaidi S. (2002). Guidelines for constructing consumption aggregates for welfare analysis. LSMS Working Paper, No. 135. https://doi.org/10.1596/ 0-8213-4990-2
18. Hirschauer N., Grüner S., Musshoff O., Becker C., Jantsch A. (2020). Can p-values be meaningfully interpreted without random sampling? Statistics Surveys, Vol. 14, pp. 71—91. https://doi.org/10.1214/20-SS129
19. Janoska J. (1996). Modeling personal consumption and government transfers in a long-run macroeconometric forecasting model. PhD Dissertation, University of Maryland.
20. Meade D. S. (2014). Some thoughts about the interindustry macroeconomic model. In: Proceedings of the 22nd International Input—Output Conference, July 14—18. Lisbon, Portugal, pp. 1—20.
21. Melguizo Á., González-Páramo J. M. (2013). Who bears labour taxes and social contributions? A meta-analysis approach. SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 247—271. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13209-012-0091-x
22. Rasche R. H., Gaffney J., Koo A. Y., Obst N. (1980). Functional forms for estimating Lorenz curves. Econometrica, Vol. 48, No. 4, pp. 1061—1062. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912948
23. Wasserstein R. L., Schirm A. L., Lazar N. A. (2019). Moving to a world beyond “p < 0.05”. American Statistician, Vol. 73, No. S1, pp. 1—19. https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2019.1583913
Review
For citations:
Shirov A.A., Potapenko V.V., Savchishina K.E. Russian household expenditures at the macroeconomic level: Structure, inequality, and impact of tax changes. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2026;(5):17-33. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2026-5-17-33
Views:
417
JATS XML
Email this article 