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Как обеспечить внешнюю устойчивость российской экономики

https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2013-9-4-39

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Аннотация

В работе рассматриваются механизмы формирования внешних дисбалансов и адаптации к ним. Показано, что внешняя адаптация российской экономики в основном обеспечивается за счет расширения или сжатия внутреннего спроса, со значительными рисками и потерями для экономики, а механизмы адаптации за счет изменения обменного курса очень слабы. Другой вывод состоит в том, что в России средний рост ВВП, при котором сохранится устойчивость платежного баланса, возможен на уровне лишь 2,2% в год. Попытки добиться темпов роста выше этого уровня, не подкрепленные серьезными структурными и институциональными реформами, будут приводить к регулярно повторяющимся болезненным кризисам, с возвратом на траекторию двухпроцентного роста экономики.

Об авторах

Е. Т. Гурвич
Экономическая экспертная группа (Москва)
Россия
к. ф.-м. н., руководитель Экономической экспертной группы


И. В. Прилепский
Экономическая экспертная группа (Москва)
Россия
к.  ф.‑м.  н., эксперт Экономической экспертной группы (Москва)


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Для цитирования:


Гурвич Е.Т., Прилепский И.В. Как обеспечить внешнюю устойчивость российской экономики. Вопросы экономики. 2013;(9):4-39. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2013-9-4-39

For citation:


Gurvich E., Prilepskiy I. How to secure external sustainability of the Russian economy. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2013;(9):4-39. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2013-9-4-39

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ISSN 0042-8736 (Print)