voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2013-9-4-39voprecotest-570Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИКАMACROECONOMICSКак обеспечить внешнюю устойчивость российской экономикиHow to secure external sustainability of the Russian economyГурвичЕ. Т.GurvichE.

к. ф.-м. н., руководитель Экономической экспертной группы

egurvich@eeg.ruПрилепскийИ. В.PrilepskiyI.

к.  ф.‑м.  н., эксперт Экономической экспертной группы (Москва)

iprilepskiy@eeg.ruЭкономическая экспертная группа (Москва)Россияegurvich@eeg.ruRussian FederationЭкономическая экспертная группа (Москва)РоссияEconomic Expert Group (Moscow, Russia)Russian Federation20132009201309439Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20132013Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/570

В работе рассматриваются механизмы формирования внешних дисбалансов и адаптации к ним. Показано, что внешняя адаптация российской экономики в основном обеспечивается за счет расширения или сжатия внутреннего спроса, со значительными рисками и потерями для экономики, а механизмы адаптации за счет изменения обменного курса очень слабы. Другой вывод состоит в том, что в России средний рост ВВП, при котором сохранится устойчивость платежного баланса, возможен на уровне лишь 2,2% в год. Попытки добиться темпов роста выше этого уровня, не подкрепленные серьезными структурными и институциональными реформами, будут приводить к регулярно повторяющимся болезненным кризисам, с возвратом на траекторию двухпроцентного роста экономики.

The paper looks into emergence of external imbalances and economy’s adjustment to them. We find that Russian economy adjusts mainly via increase or decrease of domestic demand (resulting in substantial risks and losses of production), while capacity of adjustment via exchange rate channel is very limited. Another conclusion is that long-term growth rate compatible with external sustainability amounts to just 2,2%. Any attempts to boost growth above this level, not supported with profound structural reforms, would entail regular painful crises, reverting economy to the two-percentage growth trajectory.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.