The article examines the US trade policy reversal during the second term of Donald Trump’s presidency towards neo-protectionism, which contradicts the principles of the multilateral trading system and undermines transatlantic relations. The new Republican administration imposes tariffs and restricts trade flows, following a policy that weakens established global economic practices. This policy, aimed at reducing the trade deficit, national debt, and taxes, as well as revitalizing production in the US, may harm the American economy itself and trigger a global recession. Despite the deep economic interdependence between the US and the EU, the institutions of the Union, along with the leaders of individual member states, are determined to retaliate to safeguard their domestic industries. In this confrontation, compromises cannot be ruled out. The article provides an assessment of the economic impact of the duties imposed by Trump and examines the possibilities and limitations of the EU’s retaliatory measures.

The article examines a global economic system in which a single country acts as the dominant issuer of the reserve currency. Employing game-theoretic modelling, it investigates the strategic interaction among the dominant issuer, independent states, and states allied with the issuer. The model reveals pronounced power asymmetries, incentives for excessive monetary issuance, and heightened risks of systemic instability. Equilibrium strategies are derived, and the conditions under which alliances may reconfigure are characterized. The analysis identifies the parameter ranges that sustain alternative equilibria within the international monetary regime and discusses the forces driving de-dollarization and possible transition to a multipolar currency order. The findings illuminate salient features of the contemporary global financial architecture, furnish theoretical rationales for policies that underpin globalization and single-currency domination, and expose the attendant systemic risks. The framework admits two equilibrium configurations, one of which is inherently unstable. Attaining this unstable equilibrium — possible only through the materialisation of major geopolitical shocks — could culminate in the collapse of the existing international monetary system.

The social need to transform the global monetary and financial system, which is at the stage of rapid self-destruction against the background of growing economic and digital inequality, global challenges, structural shifts and polycrisis revealed the stability of the cryptocurrency industry, which manifested itself in the public acceptance of cryptocurrency assets both as a financial product and as a new ideological doctrine, in accordance with the theory of diffusion of innovation. The impact of the cryptocurrency ecosystem modification on the configuration of the global monetary and financial system has become the subject of this study. The authors analyzed panel data, which is based on 79 socio-cultural, political, demographic and economic indicators in dynamics for 2014—2024. As a result, individual factors have been identified that stimulate the smart society to recognize cryptocurrency realities not from a technological basis, but from the perspective of unique consumer and functional properties. Emphasis is placed on the specificity of the formation of the cryptocurrency landscape: the bidirectional world movement “retail users ↔ institutional players”; the paradoxical effect of tight regulation; conflict between economic reality and “beliefs”, etc. It has been established that the speed and depth of the cryptocurrency assets adoption by society is variable to a greater extent not from objective factors, but from subjective characteristics that affect decision-making and express the need for a new configuration of the global monetary and financial system. A breakthrough direction of socio-economic development is the ideology and design adaptation of the cryptocurrency channel of cross-border money transfers, which ensures the transition to a human-centered ecosystem of a multipolar order with a unique currency transfer standard.

The study is based on a unique survey conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation (inFOM) as part of the Bank of Russia’s inflation expectations (IE) monitoring in May 2024. The survey is representative of the Russian population. Uncertainty of inflation expectations (IEU) is approximately 10 percentage points and increases with both higher inflation expectations and the respondent’s age. IEU is higher among those who believe the time is suitable for purchases, lower among men, and decreases with higher levels of education. To measure IEU, the survey introduced new questions in addition to the traditional one that asked respondents to choose a single interval for expected inflation in 12 months. These new questions asked about the relative likelihood of inflation falling within each proposed interval. The estimates of inflation expectations based on these new questions were lower than those based on the traditional single-question method.

In this paper we construct monthly hedonic price indices for the cost per square meter of secondary housing within the administrative boundaries of Moscow (including New Moscow Administrative District). The data is collected from the most popular platforms, such as Cian, Avito, Yandex, and others. The analysis covers a particularly interesting period from July 2023 to December 2024, during which there was a continuous tightening of monetary policy, which inevitably impacted the secondary housing market. Due to the absence of subsidized programs in this market, mortgage rates are closely aligned with the key interest rate. We analyze the impact of key rate dynamics on real (deflated by the Moscow CPI) hedonic indices, as well as average and median price indices, and find a statistically significant negative effect from the monetary policy tightening. The results of the analysis show that nominal indices (both hedonic and average/median price indices) exhibited growth up until the first quarter of 2024, after which they began to stagnate. By the end of 2024, nominal indices indicated an approximately 10% increase in the cost per square meter of housing in Moscow compared to July 2023. At the same time, real hedonic, as well as simple average and median prices per square meter of housing in Moscow, were below the levels at the start of the sample period. Over the course of about a year and a half, the hedonic price per square meter in secondary housing, according to our estimates, fell by approximately 4% to 5%. Hedonic and standard indices show quite different dynamics in the first half of the sample, as well as significantly different reactions to monetary policy tightening, highlighting the importance of accounting for property characteristics when analyzing the real estate market.

In this article, we discuss a novel approach to the assessment of the situation (business climate) in the science and technology (S&T) field, as well as the results of its testing within three large-scale surveys of top-managers of R&D organizations and universities conducted in 2017, 2022 and 2024. The methodology is based on the theory and practice of quantitative (including statistical) measurement of this area, business tendency surveys, and evaluation of S&T policy and its instruments. The opportunities and advantages of using the proposed analytical tools for identifying drivers and barriers to the development of this area in Russia, studying the dynamics of ongoing changes, and the demand for government support measures are demonstrated.

This study investigates the relationship between reproductive intentions and mortgage debt among the Russian population. Using data from the “Person, family, society” telephone survey conducted in spring 2020, we estimate binary choice probit models employing instrumental variables (IV) to address potential endogeneity between the variables under consideration. An instrument for mortgage status was constructed using respondents’ attitudes toward mortgage loans. Statistical tests confirmed the validity and relevance of the chosen instrument for the main model and most subgroups. Results modeling the intention to have a child within the next three years indicate a positive correlation between mortgage debt and reproductive intentions, consistent with findings from other countries. Robustness checks were performed on subgroups stratified by number of children, gender, and age. The positive association between mortgage debt and reproductive intentions was found to hold for women, respondents under 36 years of age, and childless respondents; for other groups, mortgage debt proved to be an insignificant factor.