On establishing a Russian LNG price benchmark in the Asia-Pacific market

This article examines the conditions under which a Russian price reference for liquefied natural gas (LNG) for buyers in Northeast Asia may be formed amid the fragmentation of global energy markets. The relevance of the issue stems from rising gas competition in pricing, the declining representativeness of Western price benchmarks for Russian supplies, and the expansion of sanctions restrictions on Russian LNG. The authors distinguish four elements of pricing infrastructure: a price indicator, a benchmark, a spot hub and an exchangetraded instrument. Based on the analysis of Sakhalin-2, Yamal LNG, Arctic LNG 2 and the Russian export and transshipment bases, the article shows that Russia has a physical export base for a national price assessment, but it is not sufficient for the immediate creation of a full market benchmark. The main constraints are low spot liquidity, oligopolistic supply, heterogeneous delivery bases, limited transaction transparency and sanctions-related isolation from international clearing infrastructure. The paper proposes a four-stage model: first, a calculated netback indicator for taxation and customs administration; second, an independent FOB assessment for specific Russian export bases; third, limited contractual use with a subsequent transition to benchmark status; and fourth, exchange linkage and the development of a derivatives framework. Such an indicator should compare the actual export price with the calculated yield of a premium export destination net of costs, thus serving a fiscal and applied function but not acting as an administratively assigned contractual reference. The realistic medium-term objective is to develop a Russian FOB price assessment in which customs statistics serves as a control rather than a primary pricing source.

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