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Assessment of climate risks impact on sustainability of Russian insurance market to 2030
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2026-6-97-117
Abstract
The article presents the methodology and results of the assessment of the impact of climate risks on the loss ratio of Russian insurance companies on the 2030 horizon based on the analysis and mathematical modeling of the expert opinions and statistical data published by scientific institutes of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia. It is expected that in the worst-case scenario, loss ratio of insurance operations for basic types of insurance may increase by 18.15 p. p. only due to the influence of climate risks. The diversity of the expected increase of the loss ratio is not the same for different classes of insurance: in agricultural insurance it may increase by 44.6 p. p.; in motor casco insurance — by 23.3 p. p.; in householders insurance — by 20.8 p. p.; in life insurance, accident insurance and voluntary medical insurance — from 11.0 to 19.4 p. p.
Keywords
climate risks,
climate policy,
insurance market,
Bank of Russia,
sustainable insurance,
classes of insurance,
frequency and impact of insurance events
JEL: C51, C82, G22
About the Authors
C. E. Tourbina
MGIMO University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Capitolina E. Tourbina
Moscow
A. P. Arkhipov
MGIMO University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alexander P. Arkhipov
Moscow
V. V. Lesnykh
Gazprom Gaznadzor LLC
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Valery V. Lesnykh
Moscow
O. A. Morozova
All-Russian Research Institute for Civil Defense and Emergencies of the EMERCOM of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Oksana A. Morozova
Moscow
I. A. Skvortsov
MGIMO University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Igor A. Skvortsov
Moscow
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Review
For citations:
Tourbina C.E., Arkhipov A.P., Lesnykh V.V., Morozova O.A., Skvortsov I.A. Assessment of climate risks impact on sustainability of Russian insurance market to 2030. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2026;(6):97-117. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2026-6-97-117
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