Generate QR code
Open Access
Subscription Access
Reasons for the slowdown in the global transition to a sustainable development model
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2026-4-44-66
Abstract
The article analyzes the deceleration of the global transition toward a sustainable development model — a process that, in Russian academic and public discourse, is often addressed in a rather superficial or speculative manner. The study seeks to provide a scientifically grounded assessment of two key questions: (1) what is the current state of this transition, and does it exhibit signs of deceleration or stagnation, as evidenced by quantitative indicators; and (2) what are the principal causes and factors underlying this slowdown? To address the first question, the paper examines the dynamics of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Index and trends in responsible investment. The results indicate that since 2019, the global transition to a sustainable development model has indeed slowed, although there is no empirical basis to suggest its complete cessation. In response to the second question, the article identifies and classifies global factors contributing to the slowdown into three major groups: (1) short- and mediumterm global processes; (2) the emergence of new “growth problems” replacing the earlier “formation problems” without corresponding policy adaptation; and (3) inherent contradictions within the sustainable development paradigm itself. The findings provide a foundation for forecasting the future trajectory of the sustainable development model at both global and national levels. Further progress will depend on comparing current inhibitory factors with those that previously spurred the expansion of sustainable finance — a key mechanism in advancing the new model — and on assessing emerging economic, technological, and behavioral drivers capable of reinvigorating the global transition toward sustainability.
Keywords
sustainable development model,
sustainable development goals,
SDG Index,
ESG,
responsible investment,
ESG regulatory expansion,
competitiveness
JEL: D21, D62, O30, O44, Q01, Q42, Q58
About the Author
Yu. A. Danilov
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Yuri A. Danilov
Moscow
References
1. Arslan A., Yener S., Akturan A. (2025). The dark side of ESG ratings: Future challenges for corporate strategies. Foresight and STI Governance, Vol. 19, No. 3, pp. 78—85. https://doi.org/10.17323/fstig.2025.26712
2. Bobylev S. N., Solovyeva S. V., Kiryushin P. A. (2022). The collapse of the global consumption model: In search of sustainability. World Economy and International Relations, Vol. 66, No. 11, pp. 92—100. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2022-66-11-92-100
3. Danilov Y. A. (2019). The present state of global scientific debate in the field of financial development. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 3, pp. 29—47. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2019-3-29-47
4. Danilov Y. A. (2021). The concept of sustainable finance and the prospects for its implementation in Russia. Voprosy Еkonomiki, No. 5, pp. 5—25. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-5-5-25
5. Danilov Y. A. (2023). Building long-term trust in sustainable finance. Ekonomicheskaya Politika, Vol. 18, No. 5, pp. 122—147. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2023-5-122-147
6. Danilov Y. A. (2025a). Sustainable finance: Challenges in creating master’s degree programs and textbooks. Voprosy Еkonomiki, No. 2, pp. 126—142. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-2-126-142
7. Danilov Y. A. (2025b). The concept of sustainable development: Origins, criticism, prospects. ECO, No. 6, pp. 158—175. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.30680/ECO0131-7652-2025-6-158-175
8. Danilov Y. A. (2026). Will Donald Trump stop the transition to sustainability? World Economy and International Relations, [forthcoming]. (In Russian).
9. Perez C. (2011). Technological revolutions and financial capital. The dynamics of bubbles and golden ages. Moscow: Delo. (In Russian).
10. Polterovich V. M. (2018). Towards a general theory of socio-economic development. Part 2. Evolution of coordination mechanisms. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 12, pp. 77—102. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2018-12-77-102
11. Sechin I. I. (2024). The costs and threats of the “green” energy transition. MGIMO Review of International Relations, Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 7—40. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2024-3-96-7-40
12. Acemoglu D., Robinson J. (2013). Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity, and poverty. New York: Crown Publishing Group.
13. Bain & Company (2024). The visionary CEO’s guide to sustainability 2024: How leaders can meet the moment with pragmatism.
14. Basseches J. A. (2024). Who pays for environmental policy? Business power and the design of state-level climate policies. Politics & Society, Vol. 52, No. 3, pp. 409—451. https://doi.org/10.1177/00323292231195184
15. Bauer M. D., Offner E. A., Rudebusch G. D. (2024). Green stocks and monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Europe. CESifo Working Paper Series, No. 11552. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5068004
16. Berg F., Kolbel J., Rigobon R. (2022). Aggregate confusion: The divergence of ESG ratings. Review of Finance, Vol. 26, No. 6, pp. 1315—1344. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfac033
17. Bobylev S., Grigoryev L. (2020). In search of the contours of the post-COVID Sustainable Development Goals: The case of BRICS. BRICS Journal of Economics, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 4—24. https://doi.org/10.38050/2712-7508-2020-7
18. Brand U., Wissen M. (2021). The imperial mode of living: Everyday life and ecological crisis of capitalism. London: Verso.
19. Brown P. (2012). Through the eye of a needle: Wealth, the fall of Rome, and the making of Christianity in the West, 350—550 AD. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
20. Buklemishev O. V., Danilov Y. A. (2025). Is profit important in the era of ESG? Journal of the New Economic Association, No. 1, pp. 177—194. https://doi.org/10.31737/22212264_2025_1_177-194
21. Carnevale C., Drago D. (2024). Do banks price ESG risks? A critical review of empirical research. Research in International Business and Finance, Vol. 69, article 102227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102227
22. Curtis Q. (2025). The ESG backlash and the demand for ESG mutual funds. Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 690—706. https://doi.org/10.1111/jels.70010
23. de Oliveira U. R., Menezes R. P., Fernandes V. A. (2024). A systematic literature review on corporate sustainability: Contributions, barriers, innovations and future possibilities. Environment, Development and Sustainability, Vol. 26, pp. 3045—3079. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-02933-7
24. Dyck A., Lins K. V., Roth L., Wagner H. F. (2019). Do institutional investors drive corporate social responsibility? International evidence. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 131, No. 3, pp. 693—714. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.08.013
25. EBA (2023). In response to the Call for Advice from the European Commission on Green Loans and Mortgages. EBA Report. Paris: European Banking Authority.
26. ESMA (2023). Progress report on greenwashing. Paris: European Securities and Markets Authority.
27. ESMA (2025). Fund names: ESG-related changes and their impact on investment flows. Paris: European Securities and Markets Authority.
28. European Commission (2020). Study on directors’ duties and sustainable corporate governance. Final report. Brussels: Directorate-General for Justice and Consumers.
29. Fornaro L., Guerrieri V., Reichlin L. (2025). Monetary policy for the green transition. BIS Papers, No. 160.
30. Frankel R., Kothari S. P., Raghunandan A. (2025). The economics of ESG disclosure regulation. Review of Accounting Studies, Vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 3218—3253. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-025-09900-9
31. Garicano L., Rohner D., Weder di Mauro B. (eds.) (2022). Global economic consequences of the war in Ukraine: Sanctions, supply chains and sustainability. Paris: CEPR Press.
32. Ghitti M., Gianfrate G., Palma L. (2024). The agency of greenwashing. Journal of Management and Governance, Vol. 28, pp. 905—941. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10997-023-09683-8
33. Gratcheva E., Gurhy B. (2024). Sovereign environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing: Chasing elusive sustainability. IMF Working Paper, No. WP/24/102. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400277054.001
34. Grigoryev L., Medzhidova D. (2020). Global energy trilemma. Russian Journal of Economics, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 437—462. https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.6.58683
35. GSIA (2023). Global sustainable investment review 2022. Global Sustainable Investment Alliance.
36. Henderson R. (2020). Reimagining capitalism in a world on fire. New York: Public Affairs.
37. Hickel J., Kallis G. (2020). Is green growth possible? New Political Economy, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp. 469—486. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2019.1598964
38. Hughes B. B. (2025). Analysis of integrated global SDG pursuit: Challenges and progress. Sustainability, Vol. 17, No. 15, article 6672. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17156672
39. ICMA (2021). Overview and recommendations for sustainable finance taxonomies. Zurich: International Capital Market Association.
40. IMF (2019). Global financial stability report: Lower for longer. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
41. IMF (2021). Global financial stability report. COVID-19, crypto, and climate: Navigating challenge transitions. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
42. Instituto Juan de Mariana (2025). Brecha generacional. Cómo el sistema de pensiones y el modelo fiscal penalizan a los jóvenes españoles. Madrid.
43. Kar A. K., Choudhary S. K., Singh V. K. (2022). How can artificial intelligence impact sustainability: A systematic literature review. Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 376, article 134120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.134120
44. Keynes J. M. (1972). Essays in persuasion. In: D. E. Moggridge (ed.). Collected writings of J. M. Keynes, Vol. 9. London: Macmillan for the Royal Economic Society.
45. KPMG (2024). The move to mandatory reporting: Survey of sustainability reporting 2024. KPMG International.
46. Kumar A. N. P., Bogner J., Funke M., Lago P. (2024). Balancing progress and responsibility: A synthesis of sustainability trade-offs of AI-based systems. In: 2024 IEEE 21st International Conference on Software Architecture Companion (ICSA-C), pp. 207—214. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSA-C63560.2024.00045
47. Krueger P., Pasche C. (2025). What drives sustainable finance fatigue? SFI Public Discussion Note, September.
48. Mazzucato M. (2013). The entrepreneurial state: Debunking public vs private sector myths. London: Anthem Press.
49. Morgan Stanley (2025). Sustainable reality: Sustainable funds underperformed in H2 2024, but flows regained some ground. Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing.
50. Morningstar (2025). Global sustainable fund flows: Q4 2024 in review. Despite headwinds, inflows increase, driven by Europe. Morningstar Sustainalytics.
51. Murphy En., Murphy Et., Sachs J. D., Walsh P. P. (2025). How does the USA perform in the Sustainable Development Goals: A Northern Hemisphere Peer-Based Index. Sustainable Development, Vol. 33, pp. 5919—5928. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.3445
52. Newig J., Jager N. W., Challies E., Kochskämper E. (2023). Does stakeholder participation improve environmental governance? Evidence from a meta-analysis of 305 case studies. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 82, article 102705. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10565671
53. OECD/UNDP (2025). Investing in climate for growth and development: The case for enhanced NDCs. Paris: OECD Publ. https://doi.org/10.1787/16b7cbc7-en
54. Okun A. M. (1975). Equality and efficiency: The big tradeoff. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
55. Orbons K., van Vuuren D. P., Ambrosio G., Kulkarni S., Weber E., Zapata V., Daioglou V., Hof A. F., Zimm G. (2024). A review of existing model-based scenarios achieving SDGs: Progress and challenges. Global Sustainability, Vol. 7, article e3. https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2023.20
56. Posadas S. C., Ruiz-Blanco S., Fernández-Feijoo B., Tarquinio L. (2023). Institutional isomorphism under the test of the Non-financial Reporting Directive. Evidence from Italy and Spain. Meditari Accountancy Research, Vol. 31, No. 7, pp. 26—48. https://doi.org/10.1108/MEDAR-02-2022-1606
57. Perez C. (2016). Capitalism, technology and a green global golden age: The role of history in helping to shape the future. In: M. Jacobs, M. Mazzucato (eds.). Rethinking capitalism. Economics and policy for sustainable and inclusive growth. London: Wiley Blackwell.
58. PRI (2024). Annual report 2024. London: Principles for Responsible Investment.
59. PRI (2025). Global responsible investment trends: Inside PRI reporting data. London: Principles for Responsible Investment.
60. Rockström J., Gupta J., Qin D. et al. (2023). Safe and just Earth system boundaries. Nature, Vol. 619, pp. 102—111. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8
61. Rodrik D. (2011). The globalization paradox: Democracy and the future of the world economy. New York and London: W.W. Norton.
62. Rodrik D. (2024). A new trilemma haunts the world economy. Project Syndicate. September 9. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/new-trilemma-ofclimate-change-global-poverty-rich-countries-middle-classes-by-dani-rodrik-2024-09
63. Roe M. J. (2022). What is stock market shorttermism? Law Working Paper, No. 658/2022. European Corporate Governance Institute. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4194910
64. Roe M. J. (2024). Corporate purpose and corporate competition. Washington University Law Review, Vol. 99, No. 1, pp. 233—270.
65. Roncalli T. (2025). Handbook of sustainable finance. Unpublished manuscript. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4277875
66. Sachs J. D. et al. (2022). The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Lancet, Vol. 400, No. 10359, pp. 1224—1280.
67. Sachs J., Lafortune G., Fuller G., Drumm E. (2023). Sustainable Development Report 2023: Implementing the SDG stimulus. Dublin: Dublin University Press.
68. Sachs J., Lafortune G., Fuller G. (2024). Sustainable Development Report 2024: The SDGs and the UN summit of the future. Dublin: Dublin University Press. https://doi.org/10.25546/108572
69. Sachs J. D., Lafortune G., Fuller G., Iablonovski G. (2025). Sustainable Development Report 2025: Financing sustainable development to 2030 and mid-century. Dublin: Dublin University Press. https://doi.org/10.25546/111909
70. Scheitza L., Busch T. (2024). SFDR Article 9: Is it all about impact? Finance Research Letters, Vol. 62, Part A, article 105179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105179
71. Schoenmaker D., Schramade W. (2019). Principles of sustainable finance. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
72. Schoenmaker D., Schramade W. (2023). Corporate finance for long-term value. Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-35009-2
73. Schramade W., Schoenmaker D., Toorop R. (2022). Decision rules for integrated value. Erasmus Platform for Sustainable Value Creation Working paper. Rotterdam: Erasmus University.
74. Sen A. (1999). Development as freedom. New York: Alfred Knopf.
75. Singh P. K., Maheswaran R. (2024). Analysis of social barriers to sustainable innovation and digitisation in supply chain. Environment, Development and Sustainability, Vol. 26, pp. 5223—5248. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-02931-9
76. Sipiczki A. (2022). A critical look at the ESG market. CEPS Policy Insights, No. 2022-15.
77. Stavytskyy A., Dligach A. (2025). The global economic model in crisis: An analysis of the obstacles to the Sustainable Development Goals. Sustainability, Vol. 17, article 8537. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17198537
78. The Global Compact (2004). Who cares wins: Connecting financial markets to a changing world. New York: United Nations.
79. Vinuesa R., Azizpour H., Leite I., Balaam M., Dignum V., Domisch S., Felländer A., Langhans S. D., Tegmark M., Nerini F. F. (2020). The role of artificial intelligence in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Nature Communications, Vol. 11, article 233. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14108-y
80. UN (2015). Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development. New York: United Nations Publications.
81. UNCTAD (2020). Transforming trade and development in a fractured, post-pandemic world. New York: United Nations Publications.
82. UNCTAD (2024). World investment report 2024. Investment facilitation and digital government. New York: United Nations Publications.
83. Wang J., Herwartz H. (2025). Central Bank green policy, financial stability, and the environment. Unpublished manuscript. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5327732
84. Wang Q., Huang R. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on sustainable development goals — A survey. Environmental Research, Vol. 202, article 111637. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.111637
85. WCED (1987). Our common future. World Commission on Environment and Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
86. WEF (2025). The global risks report 2025. Cologny and Geneva: World Economic Forum.
87. Yuan H., Wang X., Gao L., Wang T., Liu B., Fang D., Gao Y. (2023). Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals has been slowed by indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Communications Earth & Environment, Vol. 4, article 184. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00846-x
88. Zhao W., Yin C., Hua T., Meadows M., Li Y., Liu Y., Cherubini F., Pereira P., Fu B. (2022). Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in the post-pandemic era. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Vol. 9, No. 1, article 258. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01283-5
Review
For citations:
Danilov Yu.A. Reasons for the slowdown in the global transition to a sustainable development model. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2026;(4):44-66. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2026-4-44-66
Views:
418
JATS XML
Email this article 