voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2026-4-44-66voprecotest-5695Research ArticleМЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКАINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICSПричины торможения глобального перехода к модели устойчивого развитияReasons for the slowdown in the global transition to a sustainable development modelhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0005-651XДаниловЮ. А.DanilovYu. A.

Данилов Юрий Алексеевич, к. э. н., вед. н. с. кафедры макроэкономической политики и стратегического управления экономического факультета МГУ

Москва

Yuri A. Danilov

Moscow

ydanilov@rambler.ruМосковский государственный университет имени М.В. ЛомоносоваРоссияLomonosov Moscow State UniversityRussian Federation202607042026044466Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20262026Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/5695

Рассматриваются вопросы торможения глобального перехода к модели устойчивого развития. Предпринята попытка ответить на два вопроса: каково текущее состояние данного перехода, можно ли говорить о его замедлении либо об остановке и каковы причины (факторы) такого замедления? Для ответа на первый вопрос проанализирована динамика Индекса ЦУР и ответственных инвестиций. Сделан вывод, что после 2019 г. наблюдается замедление глобального перехода к модели устойчивого развития, при этом нет оснований говорить о его остановке. Для ответа на второй вопрос выделены глобальные факторы торможения данного перехода; они подразделены на три группы: кратко- и среднесрочные глобальные процессы; появление новых «проблем роста», заменяющих «проблемы становления» без адекватного изменения в политиках; фундаментальные противоречия модели устойчивого развития. Исходя из полученных результатов, можно приступить к прогнозированию развития модели устойчивого развития на глобальном уровне и на уровне отдельных стран и регионов. Здесь требуется сопоставить действующие факторы торможения с факторами, предопределившими долгосрочный импульс для опережающего развития устойчивых финансов и выступающими важнейшим инструментом формирования новой модели, а также вновь возникающими мощными экономическими, технологическими и поведенческими факторами, которые могут ускорить переход к модели устойчивого развития. 

The article analyzes the deceleration of the global transition toward a sustainable development model — a process that, in Russian academic and public discourse, is often addressed in a rather superficial or speculative manner. The study seeks to provide a scientifically grounded assessment of two key questions: (1) what is the current state of this transition, and does it exhibit signs of deceleration or stagnation, as evidenced by quantitative indicators; and (2) what are the principal causes and factors underlying this slowdown? To address the first question, the paper examines the dynamics of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) Index and trends in responsible investment. The results indicate that since 2019, the global transition to a sustainable development model has indeed slowed, although there is no empirical basis to suggest its complete cessation. In response to the second question, the article identifies and classifies global factors contributing to the slowdown into three major groups: (1) short- and mediumterm global processes; (2) the emergence of new “growth problems” replacing the earlier “formation problems” without corresponding policy adaptation; and (3) inherent contradictions within the sustainable development paradigm itself. The findings provide a foundation for forecasting the future trajectory of the sustainable development model at both global and national levels. Further progress will depend on comparing current inhibitory factors with those that previously spurred the expansion of sustainable finance — a key mechanism in advancing the new model — and on assessing emerging economic, technological, and behavioral drivers capable of reinvigorating the global transition toward sustainability. 

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.