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Determinants of the inflation expectations’ uncertainty based on the all-Russian survey
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-6-63-93
Abstract
The study is based on a unique survey conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation (inFOM) as part of the Bank of Russia’s inflation expectations (IE) monitoring in May 2024. The survey is representative of the Russian population. Uncertainty of inflation expectations (IEU) is approximately 10 percentage points and increases with both higher inflation expectations and the respondent’s age. IEU is higher among those who believe the time is suitable for purchases, lower among men, and decreases with higher levels of education. To measure IEU, the survey introduced new questions in addition to the traditional one that asked respondents to choose a single interval for expected inflation in 12 months. These new questions asked about the relative likelihood of inflation falling within each proposed interval. The estimates of inflation expectations based on these new questions were lower than those based on the traditional single-question method.
Keywords
inflation,
inflation expectations,
inflation expectations’ uncertainty,
inFOM,
monetary policy,
key rate,
financial culture
JEL: C81, D12, E52
Supporting agencies: The study was prepared within the Bank of Russia (BoR) working group No. OD-187 devoted to the study of financial literacy impact on the economic indicators.
About the Authors
I. N. Gurov
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Ilya N. Gurov
Moscow
D. A. Elitsur
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Darya A. Elitsur
Moscow
V. E. Zuev
Bank of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vasily E. Zuev
Moscow
Ju. I. Krotova
Bank of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Julia I. Krotova
Saint Petersburg
E. A. Ostrovskaya
Bank of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Elena A. Ostrovskaya
Saratov
H. I. Penikas
Bank of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Henry I. Penikas
Moscow
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For citations:
Gurov I.N., Elitsur D.A., Zuev V.E., Krotova J.I., Ostrovskaya E.A., Penikas H.I. Determinants of the inflation expectations’ uncertainty based on the all-Russian survey. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2025;(6):63-93. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-6-63-93
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