Причины и уроки ускорения глобальной инфляции

В последние  годы мировая  экономика  переживает сильный  инфляционный шок, который  не был спрогнозирован ведущими  аналитическими цент­рами  и центральными банками. В результате темпы инфляции в развитых странах  превысили многолетние  максимумы  и значительно выросли  в странах с формирующимся рынком, для которых  инфляционные шоки такой интенсивности  более привычны. Что послужило причиной  инфляционной волны 2021-2022  гг. и почему  она оказалась неожиданной? Анализ  показывает, что основным  фактором инфляции стало  быстрое  восстановление совокупного спроса  в условиях сократившегося совокупного  предложения, на котором негативно  сказались карантинные ограничения и нарушения в цепочках поставок. Значительный вклад  в глобальную инфляцию внесло  удорожание продовольствия и топлива. Беспрецедентные по масштабам  бюджетные стимулы, поддержанные вливанием  ликвидности со стороны  центральных банков, стали важным  фактором расширения спроса и ускорения инфляции. Решительный переход  к ультрамягкой монетарной  и фискальной политике во многом объясняется тем, что на протяжении предыдущего десятилетия инфляция в развитых странах  оставалась ниже  целевого  уровня, несмотря  на  постоянное  стимулирование. В статье  рассмотрены основные  причины, по которым  центральные банки  сохраняли мягкую  политику  даже после  того, как  инфляция значительно превысила таргетируемые уровни. Охарактеризованы сценарии  возможного развития событий, включая стаг­фляционный, а также  факторы их реализации.

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