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China’s economy: Dipping into “New Normal”
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2015-5-134-158
Abstract
The article deals with the peculiarities of the current stage of China’s economic development. Economic growth has slowed down in recent years because of weakening of all its drivers, e.g. domestic consumption and investment demand as well as exports. China’s entry into ‘new normal’ is caused both by structural and macroeconomic factors. The former include an exhaustion of labor surplus in traditional agriculture, waning of “demographic dividend”, rebalancing towards services in industrial structure, and diminishing returns of economic resources used. But all of these are aggravated with the chronic overcapacity and huge debts of the corporate and public sectors, not least because of the expanding shadow banking. Economic growth cannot be reaccelerated with a new flooding of cheap finance, and responding to new challenges the authorities have put forward a new program of institutional reforms in 2013-2014. Risks of а hard landing do exist, but, by and large, China is equipped with a good potential to cope with the negative trends and sustain a course of steady development.
Keywords
economic growth,
inflation,
real estate market,
revaluation,
demo- graphic dividend,
financing platforms,
shadow banking,
bad debts,
mini-stimulus
JEL: E2, E6, F5, O3, O4, O5
About the Author
P. Mozias
National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow, Russia)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
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Review
For citations:
Mozias P. China’s economy: Dipping into “New Normal”. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2015;(5):134-158. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2015-5-134-158
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