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Costs and Benefits of the Transition to Low-carbon Economyin Russia: Perspectives up to 2050
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2014-8-70-91
Abstract
This paper investigates costs and benefits associated with low-carbon economic development pathways realization to the mid XXI century. 30 scenarios covering practically all “visions of the future” were developed by several research groups based on scenario assumptions agreed upon in advance. It is shown that with a very high probability Russian energy-related GHG emissions will reach the peak before 2050, which will be at least 11% below the 1990 emission level. The height of the peak depends on portfolio of GHG emissions mitigation measures. Efforts to keep 2050 GHG emissions 25-30% below the 1990 level bring no GDP losses. GDP impact of deep GHG emission reduction - by 50% of the 1990 level - varies from plus 4% to minus 9%. Finally, very deep GHG emission reduction - by 80% - may bring GDP losses of over 10%.
Keywords
long-term projections,
energy systems development,
GHG emission mitigation policies,
low carbon economic development strategies,
costs and benefits of climate mitigation
JEL: C31, D24, D58, E17, O44, Q43, Q47, Q48, Q52, Q58
About the Authors
I. Bashmakov
Center for Energy Efficiency, CENEf (Moscow, Russia)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
A. Myshak
Center for Energy Efficiency, CENEf (Moscow, Russia)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
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Review
For citations:
Bashmakov I., Myshak A. Costs and Benefits of the Transition to Low-carbon Economyin Russia: Perspectives up to 2050. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2014;(8):70-91. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2014-8-70-91
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