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Asymmetry of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy: Effects on macroeconomic indicators
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-10-44-61
Abstract
This study tests for asymmetric effects of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy on inflation and output. To distinguish the economy’s responses to monetary tightening versus easing, we employ a SVAR model with a non‑linear transmission of monetary shocks. Using monthly data for 2014—2024, we show a marked sign asymmetry in price dynamics: a negative monetary policy shock (a cut in the key policy rate) accelerates inflation more than a comparably sized positive shock (a rate increase) slows it. This effect may reflect nominal wage rigidity (especially in downward adjustments), household behavioral factors, and an asymmetry in the exchange‑rate channel, which we also document. We further find an asymmetric response of the credit impulse — capturing the operation of the credit channel of the transmission mechanism, i.e., banks’ ability to pass the monetary shock to the real economy — as it reacts only to monetary tightening. By contrast, the output response is close to symmetric. These results underscore the need for a cautious approach to easing monetary conditions in the Russian economy.
Supporting agencies: The article was written on the basis of the RANEPA state assignment research programme
About the Authors
S. I. Kolesnik
Lomonosov Moscow State University; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Sofya I. Kolesnik
Moscow
P. S. Kartaev
Lomonosov Moscow State University; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Philipp S. Kartaev
Moscow
A. V. Zubarev
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Andrey V. Zubarev
Moscow
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For citations:
Kolesnik S.I., Kartaev P.S., Zubarev A.V. Asymmetry of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy: Effects on macroeconomic indicators. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2025;(10):44-61. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-10-44-61
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