

With a team and without debt: Factors affecting small business survival in Russia, 2021—2023
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-5-83-110
Abstract
In the present study, we investigate which parameters of small businesses and characteristics of their owners are associated with a higher likelihood of continued operation. Our analysis employs data from ten waves of a longitudinal survey conducted on the SMBiz FOM small business panel from July 2021 through the end of 2023. Using survival analysis, we demonstrate that the strongest predictor of business closure is the fact of borrowing funds. During this period, firms employing hired staff exhibited greater resilience. For businesses without hired employees, closures occurred less frequently when the firm was managed by a man, when the services were provided in the trading sector, when they were promoted online.
References
1. Barinova V., Zemtsov S., Demidova K., Levakov P. (2023). Small and medium entrepreneurship in Russia during crisis periods. Moscow: Gaidar Institute Publ. (In Russian).
2. Golikova V. V., Mukovnin S. K., Kazun A. P., Ershova N. V. (2025). Shortage of skilled workforce in manufacturing: A consequence of firms ineffectiveness or an obstacle for the growth of effective firms? Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 2, pp. 39—65. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-2-39-65
3. Egorova A. I., Chepurenko A. Y. (2022). Factors of resilience of small entrepreneurship under external shocks in Russia (based on longitudinal survey data). Russian Management Journal, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 172—197. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu18.2022.202
4. Zemtsov S. P. (2022). Technological entrepreneurship as a factor in Russia’s development. Journal of the New Economic Association, No. 1, pp. 212—223. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-53-1-11
5. Zemtsov S. P., Tsareva Y. V. (2023. Long-term effects of extractive and inclusive institutions on entrepreneurship persistence in Russian regions. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 7, pp. 115—141. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-115-141
6. Zemtsov S. P., Tsareva Y. V., Salimov D. R., Barinova V. A. (2021). Small and medium-sized enterprises in Russia: In search of the employment growth factors. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 12, pp. 66—93. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-12-66-93
7. Kapeliushnikov R. I. (2023). The Russian labor market: A statistical portrait on the crises background. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 8, pp. 5—37. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-7-81-111
8. Morozenkova O. V. (2021). New opportunities for the development of Russian export-oriented small and medium-sized businesses. Russian Foreign Economic Journal, No. 6, pp. 7—22. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.24412.2072-8042-2021-6-7-22
9. Chepurenko A. Y. (2022). Russian small business in the first half of 2022: Between Scylla and Charybdis. Sociological Research, No. 9, pp. 132—138. (In Russian).
10. Chepurenko A. Y., Galitsky E. B., Dukhon A. B., Oslon A. A. (2021). Government policy towards small entrepreneurship during the pandemic: Evaluations by beneficiaries. Public Administration Issues, No. 4, pp. 66—89. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.17323/1999-5431-2021-0-4-66-89
11. Chepurenko A. Y., Galitsky E. B., Oslon A. A. (2023). Adaptation of Russian small business to the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic: Initial data from a longitudinal survey. Public Sciences and Modernity, No. 2, pp. 90—110. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869049923020065
12. Ahlstrom D., Bruton G. D. (2006). Venture capital in emerging economies: Networks and institutional change. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, Vol. 30, pp. 299—320. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6520.2006.00122.x
13. Altman E. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, Vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 589—609. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978933
14. Altman E., Sabato G. (2007). Modelling credit risk for SMEs: Evidence from the U.S. market. Abacus, Vol. 43, No. 3, pp. 332—357. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6281.2007.00234.x
15. Arauzo-Carod J.-M., Segarra-Blasco A. (2005). The determinants of entry are not independent of start-up size: Some evidence from Spanish manufacturing. Review of Industrial Organization, Vol. 27, No. 2, pp. 147—165. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-005-8321-z
16. Armstrong C. E. (2013). Competence or flexibility? Survival and growth implications of competitive strategy preferences among small US businesses. Journal of Strategy and Management, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 377—398. https://doi.org/10.1108/JSMA06-2012-0034
17. Audretsch D. B., Mahmood T. (1995). New firm survival: New results using a hazard function. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 77, No. 1, pp. 97—103. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109995
18. Barinova V., Gvozdeva M., Zemtsov S. (2024). Small and medium-sized enterprises in Russia in the context of sanctions. In: Russian economy in 2023. Trends and outlooks. Iss. 45, pp. 194—202. Moscow: Gaidar Institute Publ.
19. Bartlett III R. P., Morse A. (2021). Small-business survival capabilities and fiscal programs: Evidence from Oakland. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 56, No. 7, pp. 2500—2544. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109021000478
20. Bates T. (1990). Entrepreneur human capital inputs and small business longevity. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 72, No. 4, pp. 551—559. https://doi.org/10.2307/2109594
21. Belitski M., Tsareva Y., Zemtsov S. (2024). Geography and persistence of entrepreneurship in Russia. Regional Studies, Vol. 58, No. 5, pp. 1076—1095. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2023.2224382
22. Biron D., St-Jean E. (2023). Senior entrepreneurs: The impact of temporal perception on the entrepreneurial process. Journal of Organizational Change Management, Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 389—410. https://doi.org/10.1108/JOCM-09-2022-0269
23. Cader H. A., Leatherman J. C. (2009). Small business survival and sample selection bias. Small Business Economics, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 155—165. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-009-9240-4
24. Colombo M. G., Grilli L. (2005). Founders’ human capital and the growth of new technology-based firms: A competence-based view. Research Policy, Vol. 34, No. 6, pp. 795—816. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2005.03.010
25. Colombo M. G., Grilli L. (2010). On growth drivers of high-tech start-ups: Exploring the role of founders’ human capital and venture capital. Journal of Business Venturing, Vol. 25, No. 6, pp. 610—626. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2009.01.005
26. Cook M. C., Karau S. J. (2023). Opportunity in uncertainty: Small business response to COVID-19. Innovation & Management Review, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 162—178. https://doi.org/10.1108/INMR-11-2021-0226
27. Davidson N., Mariev O., Pushkarev A. (2018). The impact of externalities on the innovation activity of Russian firms. Foresight and STI Governance, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 62—72. https://doi.org/10.17323/2500-2597.2018.3.62.72
28. DeTienne D. R., Cardon M. S. (2012). Impact of founder experience on exit intentions. Small Business Economics, Vol. 38, No. 4, pp. 351—374. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-010-9284-5
29. Dunne P., Hughes A. (1994). Age, size, growth and survival: UK companies in the 1980s. Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 42, No. 2, pp. 115—140. https://doi.org/10.2307/2950485
30. Edmister R. (1972). An empirical test of financial ratio analysis for small business failure prediction. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 1477—1493. https://doi.org/10.2307/2329929
31. Gimeno J., Folta T. B., Cooper A. C., Woo C. Y. (1997). Survival of the fittest? Entrepreneurial human capital and the persistence of underperforming firms. Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol. 42, No. 4, pp. 750—783. https://doi.org/10.2307/2393656
32. Haynes G. W., Danes S. M., Schrank H. L., Lee Y. (2019). Survival and success of family-owned small businesses after hurricane Katrina: Impact of disaster assistance and adaptive capacity. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, Vol. 27, No. 2, pp. 130—144. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5973.12245
33. Hussain J., Salia S., Karim A. (2018). Is knowledge that powerful? Financial literacy and access to finance: An analysis of enterprises in the UK. Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, Vol. 25, No. 6, pp. 985—1003. https://doi.org/10.1108/JSBED-01-2018-0021
34. Iwasaki I., Kim B.-Y. (2020). Legal forms, organizational architecture, and firm failure: A large survival analysis of Russian corporations. European Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 49, No. 2, pp. 227—275. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10657-020-09644-8
35. Justo R., DeTienne D. R., Sieger P. (2015). Failure or voluntary exit? Reassessing the female underperformance hypothesis. Journal of Business Venturing, Vol. 30, No. 6, pp. 775—792. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2015.04.004
36. Kohv K., Lukason O. (2021). What best predicts corporate bank loan defaults? An analysis of three different variable domains. Risks, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 1—19. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9020029
37. Korunka C., Kessler A., Frank H., Lueger M. (2010). Personal characteristics, resources, and environment as predictors of business survival. Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology, Vol. 83, No. 4, pp. 1025—1051. https://doi.org/10.1348/096317909X485135
38. Kozachenko E., Chepurenko A., Shirokova G. (2024). Entrepreneurship in Russia: A systematic overview of domestic publications. Foresight and STI Governance, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 51—65. https://doi.org/10.17323/2500-2597.2024.4.51.65
39. Kozak M. (2018). Determinants of business survivability: Literature review. International Journal of Synergy and Research, Vol. 6, pp. 183—191. https://doi.org/10.17951/ijsr.2017.0.6.183
40. Lee H., Kelley D., Lee J., Lee S. (2012). SME survival: The impact of internationalization, technology resources, and alliances. Journal of Small Business Management, Vol. 50, No. 1, pp. 1—19. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-627X.2011.00341.x
41. Ligthelm R. (2012). The viability of informal micro businesses in South Africa: A longitudinal analysis (2007 to 2011). African Journal of Business Management, Vol. 46, No. 6, pp. 11416—11425. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJBM12.438
42. McGuinness G., Hogan T., Powell R. (2018). European trade credit use and SME survival. Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol. 49, pp. 81—103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.12.005
43. Ndiege J. R. A., Mwaura L. M., Christopher F. (2023). Technology for resilience amid COVID-19 pandemic: Narratives from small business owners in Kenya. Electronic Journal of Information Systems in Developing Countries, Vol. 89, No. 5, article e12272. https://doi.org/10.1002/isd2.12272
44. Nunn N. (2009). The importance of history for economic development. Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 65—92. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.economics.050708.143336
45. Omolekan O. J., Alli B. (2020). Relevance of innovation on survival of women-owned business in Nigeria. JWEE, No. 3—4, pp. 146—164. https://doi.org/10.28934/jwee20.34.pp146-164
46. Özalpay G, Taşkın N. (2024). Effective churn prediction in the online payment sector: A survival analysis. In: CONF-IRM 2024 Proceedings, Vol. 13, pp. 1—12. International Conference on Information Resources Management (CONFIRM) at AIS Electronic Library (AISeL).
47. Simmons S. A., Wiklund J., Levie J., Bradley S. W., Sunny S. A. (2018). Gender gaps and reentry into entrepreneurial ecosystems after business failure. Small Business Economics, Vol. 53, No. 2, pp. 517—531. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-018-9998-3
48. Sjögrén H., Syrjä P., Puumalainen K., Kraus S. (2014). What does the owner-manager want and get out of a business? Are family firms different? International Journal of Entrepreneurial Venturing, Vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 348—366. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEV.2014.066838
49. Taffler R. J. (1982). Forecasting company failure in the UK using discriminant analysis and financial ratio data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), Vol. 145, No. 3, pp. 342—358. https://doi.org/10.2307/2981867
50. Wennberg K., DeTienne D. R. (2014). What do we really mean when we talk about “exit”? A critical review of research on entrepreneurial exit. International Small Business Journal, Vol. 32, No. 1, pp. 4—16. https://doi.org/10.1177/0266242613517126
51. Wennberg K., Wiklund J., DeTienne D. R., Cardon M. S. (2010). Reconceptualizing entrepreneurial exit: Divergent exit routes and their drivers. Journal of Business Venturing, Vol. 25, No. 4, pp. 361—375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2009.01.001
52. Woldehanna T., Amha W., Yonis M. B. (2018). Correlates of business survival: Empirical evidence on youth-owned micro and small enterprises in urban Ethiopia. IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 1—26. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40176-018-0122-x
53. Zemtsov S., Barinova V., Semenova R., Mikhailov A. (2022). Entrepreneurship policy and SME development during pandemic crisis in Russia. Regional Research of Russia, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 321—334. https://doi.org/10.1134/S2079970522700071
54. Zhao H., O’Connor G. C., Wu J., Lumpkin G. T. (2021). Age and entrepreneurial career success: A review and a meta-analysis. Journal of Business Venturing, Vol. 36, No. 1, article 106007. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2020.106007
Supplementary files
Review
For citations:
Kazun A.P. With a team and without debt: Factors affecting small business survival in Russia, 2021—2023. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2025;(5):83-110. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-5-83-110