|Generate QR code
Open Access
Subscription Access
Is U.S. Economic Growth Over?faltering innovation Confronts the Six headwinds
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2013-4-49-67
Abstract
This paper raises basic questions about the process of economic growth. It questions the assumption, nearly universal since Solow’s seminal contributions of the 1950s, that economic growth is a continuous process that will persist forever. There was virtually no growth before 1750, and thus there is no guarantee that growth will continue indefinitely. Rather, the paper suggests that the rapid progress made over the past 250 years could well turn out to be a unique episode in human history. The paper views the future from 2007 while pretending that the financial crisis did not happen.
About the Author
R. J. Gordon
Department of Economics, Northwestern University (Evanston, USA)
United States
United States
References
1. Acemoglu D., Autor D. (2012). What Does Human Capital Do? A Review of Goldin and Katz’s “The Race between Education and Technology” // Journal of Economic Literature. Vol. 50, No 2. P. 426—463.
2. Autor D. H., Katz L. F., Kearney M. S. (2008). Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists // Review of Economics and Statistics. Vol. 90, No 2. P. 300—323.
3. Balke N. S., Gordon R. J. (1989). The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Results // Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 97, No 1. P. 38—92.
4. Broadberry S. N., Campbell B., Klein A., Overton M., Leeuwen B. van (2010). British Economic Growth, 1270—1870 // University of Warwick Working Paper. July 14 http://eh.net/eha/system/files/Broadberry.pdf.
5. Field A. J. (2011). A Great Leap Forward: 1930s Depression and U.S. Economic Growth. New Haven; L.: Yale University Press.
6. Flink J. J. (1970). America Adopts the Automobile, 1895—1910. Cambridge: MIT Press. Goldin C., Katz L. F. (2008). The Race Between Education and Technology. Cambridge; L.: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
7. Gordon R. J. (2000). Does the “New Economy” Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past? // Journal of Economic Perspectives. Vol. 14, No 4. P. 49—74.
8. Gordon R. J. (2010). Century with a View of the Future // NBER Working Paper. No 15834.
9. Greene A. N. (2008). Horses at Work: Harnessing Power in Industrial America. Cambridge; L.: Harvard University Press.
10. Kendrick J. W. (1961). Productivity Trends in the United States. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
11. Kremer M. (1993). Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990 // Quarterly Journal of Economics. Vol. 108, No 3. P. 681—716.
12. Sichel D. E. (1997). The Computer Revolution: An Economic Perspective. Washington, DC: Brookings.
13. Strasser S. (1982). Never Done: A History of American Housework. N. Y.: Pantheon, 1982.
Review
For citations:
Gordon R.J. Is U.S. Economic Growth Over?faltering innovation Confronts the Six headwinds. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2013;(4):49-67. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2013-4-49-67
Views:
837
Email this article 
