Generate QR code
Open Access
Subscription Access
The impact of consumer lending on consumption volume and volatility
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-5-111-129
Abstract
The global trend of accelerated growth of bank lending to households in recent decades has macroeconomic consequences, affecting the economic cycle, consumption, economic structure and prices. The article discusses the impact of consumer lending on consumption in Russia. Using annual and quarterly data on consumption and lending, based on econometric methods we show that consumer bank lending in Russia is not a smoothing factor, but a factor of additional volatility of consumption. With an increase in households’ income, they take out loans more actively. An increase in consumption in the year of borrowing is replaced by a statistically significant decrease in the following two years, which levels out about half of the initial effect. Additional consumption due to loans changes the price structure in favor of services, non-food products and alcohol, and also affects the structure of output in favor of non-tradable goods and services. This is consistent with the findings of researchers for other countries.
Supporting agencies: The article was prepared within the framework of the HSE University Basic Research Program
About the Authors
A. V. Mishura
HSE University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Anna V. Mishura
St. Petersburg
E. A. Sipkina
HSE University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Ekaterina A. Sipkina
St. Petersburg
Ya. A. Stadnikova
HSE University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Yana A. Stadnikova
St. Petersburg
References
1. Bank of Russia (2017). Consumer lending in Russia: Prospects and risks based on household finance survey. Analytical note of the Bank of Russia Research and Forecasting Department.
2. Bank of Russia (2019a). Analysis of consumer lending trends in 2015—2019 based on credit history bureau data. Information and analytical commentary of the Bank of Russia Department of Financial Stability.
3. Bank of Russia (2019b). Accelerated growth of consumer loans in the structure of bank lending: Reasons, risks and measures of the Bank of Russia. A report, June. (In Russian).
4. Bank of Russia (2021). The dynamics of the Russian household debt burden in 2020 Q2—Q3 based on the credit history bureaus’ data. A report. (In Russian).
5. Bessonova E., Tsvetkova A. (2023a). Finances of Russian households in 2022. Analytical Note. Moscow: Bank of Russia. (In Russian).
6. Bessonova E. V., Tsvetkova A. N. (2023b). Russian households’ finances during the pandemic. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 8, pp. 123—146. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-8-123-146
7. Vernikov A. V., Kurysheva A. A. (2022). Household debt: An institutionalist perspective and empirical assessment. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 10, pp. 138—156. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2022-10-138-156
8. World Bank (2019). Household over-indebtedness in Russia. Washington, DC.
9. Kolesnik D. P., Pestova A. A., Mamonov M. E. (2021). Credit supply shocks and household consumption in Russia. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 9, pp. 24—50. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-9-24-50
10. Kuzina O. E., Krupenskiy N. A. (2018). Over-indebtedness of Russians: Myth or reality? Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 11, pp. 85—104. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2018-11-85-104
11. Mamedli M. O. (2015). Permanent income hypothesis, myopia and liquidity constraints in Russia. Zhurnal Ekonomicheskoi Teorii, No. 4, pp. 49—57. (In Russian).
12. Mamedli M. O., Sinyakov A. A. (2018). Consumer finance in Russia: Income shocks and consumption smoothing. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 5, pp. 69—91. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2018-5-69-91
13. Nivorozhkina L. I. (2014). The impact of consumer credit on inequality and household poverty. Izvestiya Vuzov. Severo-Kavkazskii Region. Social Science, No. 4, pp. 76—83. (In Russian).
14. Nivorozhkina L. I. (2015). The impact of consumer lending on the conditions of formation of low-income families’ children human capital. Uchet i Statistika, No. 1, pp. 88—94. (In Russian).
15. Nivorozhkina L. I. (2016). Impact of consumer crediting on household consumption: Economic and statistical study. Voprosy Statistiki, No. 1, pp. 47—53. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2016-0-1-47-53
16. Petaykina A. D. (2023). Analysis of the impact of positive and negative income shocks on household consumption. Ekonomicheskoe Razvitie Rossii, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 39—46. (In Russian).
17. Churbanov S. G., Rozmainsky I. V. (2022). Empirical analysis of the permanent income hypothesis based on post-Soviet Russia data. Journal of the New Economic Association, No. 2, pp. 76—93. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-54-2-4
18. Bahadir B., De K., Lastrapes W. D. (2020). Household debt, consumption and inequality. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 109, article 102240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102240
19. Garber G., Mian A., Ponticelli J., Sufi A. (2024). Consumption smoothing or consumption binging? The effects of government-led consumer credit expansion in Brazil. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 156, article 103834. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103834
20. Mian A., Sufi A. (2018). Finance and business cycles: The credit-driven household demand channel. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 31—58. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.3.31
21. Mian A., Sufi A., Verner E. (2017). Household debt and business cycles worldwide. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 132, No. 4, pp. 1755—1817. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx017
22. Mian A., Sufi A., Verner E. (2020). How does credit supply expansion affect the real economy? The productive capacity and household demand channels. Journal of Finance, Vol. 75, pp. 949—994. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12869
23. Roodman D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. Stata Journal, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 86—136.
Supplementary files
Review
For citations:
Mishura A.V., Sipkina E.A., Stadnikova Ya.A. The impact of consumer lending on consumption volume and volatility. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2025;(5):111-129. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-5-111-129
Views:
242
Email this article 
