Финансовое развитие и экономический рост: актуальные вопросы теории и практики исследований

Проанализирован массив теоретических и эмпирических исследований взаимосвязи финансового и экономического развития с начала XX в. Разнообразие теоретических концепций в отсутствие однозначно признанной теории экономического роста, быстрая эволюция финансового рынка делают этот вопрос по-прежнему актуальным. Эмпирические изыскания строятся на теориях, разработанных как минимум 30 лет назад и не учитывающих ряд современных тенденций (кратное увеличение финансовых инноваций, доминирование глобальных рынков, поляризация отраслевых структур экономик и сокращение реального сектора в ряде стран). Это оставляет пробелы в понимании механизмов влияния финансового рынка на экономический рост, увеличивает разнонаправленность результатов исследований. Систематизированы сложившиеся в теории и практике представления о влиянии финансового рынка на экономический рост для формирования объективной картины происходящего, выявлены актуальные направления обновления теоретических концепций. С применением методов аналитической группировки, содержательного и эволюционного анализа сформированы базы данных теоретических (25 за 1911—2000-е годы) и эмпирических (71 за 1993—2023 гг.) работ (по группам влияния финансового рынка); рассмотрена эволюция теоретических концепций и эндогенных экономико-математических моделей экономического роста с участием финансового рынка; проведен факторный анализ результатов эмпирических работ по существенным параметрам. Установлено, что влияние финансового рынка на экономический рост не универсально и различается по странам. Рост разнообразия результатов исследований связан со снижением их точности ввиду появления новых механизмов влияния финансового рынка на рост; игнорирования различий в отраслевых структурах экономик; влияния на результаты внешних факторов, не связанных с проверяемой гипотезой.

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