Generate QR code
Open Access
Subscription Access
Macroeconomic conditions of Russia’s transition to high growth rates: China’s experience
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-10-98-123
Abstract
Taking China’s economy as an example, some macroeconomic characteristics of the new economic world order, which ensure GDP growth rate ahead of the US, acceleration of innovation activity and growing influence on the structure of global finances are considered. Attention is drawn to the little-studied effect generated by the difference in financing fixed capital investment: while in China the direct use of budgetary resources for that purpose plays a major role, in the United States the indirect use of similar resources dominates. As a result, there is a lag effect, which allows China (given equal rates of the issue of money) generate a higher growth rate and lower inflation. It is shown that in Russia in 2023—2025 no changes towards China’s macroeconomic characteristics are expected. One reason lies in selective attitude of monetary authorities to the economic theory. First, the hypothesis of the neutrality of money in the long term still prevails. With the help of the shifting mode of reproduction model it is shown that this hypothesis is incorrect: in the long run, money can be both neutral and non-neutral, what matters is how a single cash flow is distributed between investment activities and the production and consumption of non-productive goods. Therefore, the possibility of switching to a policy of monetary stimulation of economic growth is ignored. Second, the macroeconomic theory of managing the transitional processes arising from a sharp acceleration in the rate of GDP is insufficiently developed. Calculations of nonstationary trajectories of GDP rates and inflation have been made, as well as ways to minimize the duration of the transition process and to mitigate inflationary fluctuations have been developed. This largely removes the problem of uncertainty in the transition process, and also makes it possible to control it. As a result, it is possible to transit to accelerated economic growth in Russia.
Keywords
economic world order,
investments in fixed assets,
shifting mode of reproduction model,
strategic planning
JEL: B52, C02, C54, E19, E21, E22, E23
About the Authors
V. I. Mayevsky
Institute of Economics, RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vladimir I. Mayevsky
Moscow
S. Y. Malkov
Institute of Economics, RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Sergey Y. Malkov
Moscow
A. A. Rubinstein
Institute of Economics, RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Alexander A. Rubinstein
Moscow
References
1. Arrighi G. (2009). Afterword to the 2nd edition of “The long twentieth century: Money, power and the origins of our times”. Prognosis, No. 1, pp. 34—50. (In Russian).]
2. Balatsky E. (2018). The Arrighi’s concept of capital accumulation cycles and its applications. Terra Economicus, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 37—55. (In Russian).
3. Bank of Russia (2022). Annual report 2021. Moscow. (In Russian).
4. Blaug M. (1994). Economic theory in retrospect. 4th ed. Moscow: Delo. (In Russian).
5. Glazyev S. Y. (2022). Global transformations from the perspective of technological and economic world orders change. AlterEconomics, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 93—115. (In Russian).https://doi.org/10.31063/AlterEconomics/2022.19-1.6
6. Grigoryev L. M., Makarova E. A. (2019). Capital accumulation and economicgrowth after the Great Recession. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 12, pp. 24—46. (In Russian).https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2019-12-24-46
7. Davidson P. (2006). The Post Keynesian school. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 8, pp. 82—101. (In Russian).https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2006-8-82-101
8. Ershov M. V. (2022). Russian economy in the face of new sanctions challenges. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 12, pp. 5—23. (In Russian).https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-5-23
9. Keynes J. M. (1978). The general theory of employment, interest and money. Moscow: Progress. (In Russian).
10. Kirdina S. (2014). Institutional matricesand the development of Russia: An introduction to X—Y theory. Moscow; St. Petersburg: Nestor-Istoriya. (In Russian).
11. Klein L. (1996). On transition to a market economy. Dengi i Kredit, No. 5, pp. 36—37. (In Russian).
12. Kleiner G. B., Rybachuk M. A., Karpinskaya V. A., Zhdanov D. A. (2022). Mesoeconomics of socio-economic ecosystems. In: G. B. Kleiner (ed.). Mesoeconomics of Russia: Take-off strategy. Moscow: Nauchnaya Biblioteka, pp. 314—356. (In Russian).
13. Kolemaev V. A. (2005). Economic and mathematical modeling. Modeling of macroeconomic processes and systems. Moscow: YUNITI-DANA. (In Russian).
14. Kudrin A., Goryunov E., Trunin P. (2017). Stimulating monetary policy: Myths and reality. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 5, pp. 5—28. (In Russian).https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2017-5-5-28
15. Livshits V. N., Livshits S. V. (2011). System analysis of the non-stationary economy of Russia (1992—2010): Market reforms, crisis, investment policy. Moscow: Maroseika. (In Russian).]
16. Mayevsky V., Malkov S., Rubinstein A. (2016). A theory of overlapping generations of fixed capital. Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vol. 86, No. 1, pp. 39—47.https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331616010019
17. Mayevsky V. I., Malkov S. Y., Rubinstein A. A. (2019a). Analysis of the relationship between issuing money, inflation and economic growth with the help of the SMR-model. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 8, pp. 45—66. (In Russian).https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2019-8-45-66
18. Mayevsky V., Malkov S., Rubinstein A., Krasilnikova E. (2019b). On one direction of development of the mesoeconomics. Journal of Institutional Studies, Vol. 11, No. 3, pp. 21—38. (In Russian).https://doi.org/10.17835/2076-6297.2019.11.3.021-038
19. RF Ministry of Economic Development (2022). Forecast of the socioeconomic development of the Russian Federation for 2023 and for the planned period of 2024 and 2025. Moscow, September 28. (In Russian).
20. Romer D. (2015). Advanced macroeconomics. Moscow: HSE Publ. (In Russian).
21. Rubinstein A. (2022). Non-neutrality of money in the context of the synthesis of institutional and reproduction theory. Vestnik Instituta Ekonomiki RAN, No. 5, pp. 7—22. (In Russian).
22. Fischer S., Dornbusch R., Schmalensee R. (1995). Economics. Moscow: Delo. (In Russian).
23. Shirov A. A. (ed.) (2022). Potential growth opportunities for the Russian economy: Analysis and forecast (IEF Scientific report). Moscow: Artic Print. (In Russian).
24. Schumpeter J. (2001). History of economic analysis, Vol. 3. St. Petersburg: Ekonomicheskaya Shkola. (In Russian).
25. Baumol W. J., Blinder A. S. (2011). Economics: Principles and policy. Mason, OH: South-Western Cengage Learning.
26. Mankiw N. (2016). Macroeconomics. New York: Worth Publishers.
27. World Bank (2023). Global economic prospects, January. Washington, DC.
Supplementary files
Review
For citations:
Mayevsky V.I., Malkov S.Y., Rubinstein A.A. Macroeconomic conditions of Russia’s transition to high growth rates: China’s experience. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2023;(10):98-123. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-10-98-123
Views:
723
Email this article 
