Alternative strategies of overcoming stagnationand a “new growth model” of the Russian economy

Abstract

The export-raw materials model of the Russian economy has exhausted its potential to induce economic growth and has become one of the main reasons for prolonged stagnation. The profit of oil and gas complex concentrates a significant part of the value added created in other activities. The mechanism ensuring such concentration is lowed ruble exchange rate and monopoly pricing. From 40 to 60% of foreign exchange earnings from oil and gas exports is used for the export of capital and payment of net income of non-residents. The reduction of net exports to the minimum will bring the rate of accumulation to the saving rate. Reallocation of investment in favor of infrastructure and processing industries will increase their effectiveness. Thus the tasks of creating new centers of income, forming a new mechanism of economic growth will be solved. Monetary and fiscal policy will be effective not only in the short run but also in the long-term period.