The perfect storm of personal consumption

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic forced the governments of almost all countries to introduce lockdowns in 2020, which sharply reduced the supply in a number of large service sectors: transport, recreation, catering, tourism. The recession began without a crisis, and the unique supply of cheap money and fiscal incentives prevented the development of a “liquidity crunch”. On the contrary, it led to an increase in stock prices, real estate prices, and a reduction in bankruptcies. There was no drop in the value of pension and investment funds. The working population has faced a reduction in employment in labor-intensive service industries, a violation of traditional lifestyle models. The course of the recession in these conditions has changed the structure of personal consumption in developed countries, with its severe adaptation in medium-developed and less developed countries. The pandemic and the recession have caused an uneven compression of activity and consumption across social strata that leads to an increase in social disparities on exiting the recession. The drivers of the demand-side recovery in developed countries are the growth of investments in housing and durable goods, and developing countries are gradually restoring normal consumption of non-durable goods and exports.