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«Дефицитфляция» 3.0: экономика военного времени — государственный социализм — кризис на фоне пандемии
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-10-5-26
Аннотация
Кризис, вызванный пандемией коронавируса, вынудил правительства и центральные банки разных стран принять чрезвычайные меры для сохранения уровня жизни населения и поддержания производственной и сервисной деятельности компаний. Политика агрессивного увеличения денежной массы повлекла за собой значительный рост бюджетного дефицита и государственного долга. Важно понять масштабы ее влияния на обострение инфляционных процессов и сформулировать предложения для экономической политики. Реальная инфляция уже выше, чем можно предположить, исходя из официальных показателей. Общий рост цен не полностью отражает фактический уровень инфляции. Налицо «дефицитфляция» — одновременное возникновение инфляции цен и подавленной инфляции, сопровождаемой дефицитом. Методологически интересно сравнить текущий феномен (3.0) с подавлением инфляции в экономике военного времени (1.0) и в период государственного социализма (2.0). Такие сравнения помогают оценить не только сходство между этими процессами, но и их различия, обусловленные спецификой реакции населения и предприятий. В статье рассматриваются пять каналов сокращения избыточных сбережений и указаны наиболее выгодные из них с точки зрения обеспечения устойчивого экономического роста в постпандемическом будущем. Особенно важно стимулировать превращение вынужденных сбережений в добровольные одновременно с трансформацией инфляционных денежных резервов в платежеспособный спрос, что позволит расширить использование существующих производственных мощностей и инвестирование в создание новых.
Ключевые слова
открытая инфляция,
подавленная инфляция,
дефицитфляция,
денежная масса,
вынужденные сбережения,
пандемия
JEL: C20, D14, E21, G40, P22, P51
Об авторе
Гж. В. Колодко
Университет Козьминского
Польша
Польша
Колодко Гжегож Витольд - профессор, иностранный член Российской академии наук, директор TIGER — Transformation, Integration and Globalization Economic Research.
Варшава
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Рецензия
Для цитирования:
Колодко Г.В. «Дефицитфляция» 3.0: экономика военного времени — государственный социализм — кризис на фоне пандемии. Вопросы экономики. 2021;(10):5-26. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-10-5-26
For citation:
Kolodko G.W. Shortageflation 3.0: War economy — state socialism—pandemic crisis. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2021;(10):5-26. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-10-5-26
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