

Foresight as a tool for creating and managing a company’s ecosystem
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2022-3-52-76
Abstract
Over the past thirty years, the company and its environment have been the subject of lively academic discussion by several major global schools: the study of national innovation systems, and of the emergence, development and diffusion of innovation; research that analyzes value chains; institutional theory; ecosystem approach; strategic management; forecasting; planning; and foresight to assess current corporate processes and future transformations. The research landscape is still highly fragmented and characterized by several extensive gaps related to an integrated approach to the study of the company, taking into account the global trends, incentives and patterns of behavior of the key stakeholders. The paper presents the results of the research uniting different theoretical approaches on the platform of foresight: a two-loop integral ecosystem model is proposed which takes into account the influence of global trends on internal and external stakeholders of a company, including the empirical survey of more than 260 Russian companies in 2021. A set of practical recommendations for using modern foresight instruments to form, manage and transform the company ecosystem is given. A forecast of possible directions of development is made.
References
1. Bobylev S. N., Grigoryev L. M. (eds.) (2018). Human individual and innovation: Report on human development in the Russian Federation. Moscow: Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation. (In Russian).
2. Doroshenko S. V., Shelomentsev A. G. (2017). Entrepreneurial ecosystem in modern economic research. Journal of Economic Theory, No. 4, pp. 212—221. (In Russian).
3. Zemtsov S. (2017). Robots and potential technological unemployment in the Russian regions: Review and preliminary results. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 7, pp. 142—157. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2017-7-142-157
4. Zemtsov S. P., Baburin V. L. (2019). Entrepreneurship ecosystems in Russian regions. Regional Research, No. 2, pp. 4—14. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.5922/10.5922/1994-5280-2019-2-1
5. Zemtsov S. P., Chepurenko A. Y., Barinova V. A., Krasnoselskikh A. N. (2020). New entrepreneurship policy in Russia after the 2020 crisis. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 10, pp. 44—67. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2020-10-44-67
6. Kleiner G. B. (2017). From the economy of individuals to systemic economy. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 8, pp. 56—74. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2017-8-56-74
7. Kleiner G. B. (2019). Ecosystem economy: Step into the future. Economic Revival of Russia, No. 1, pp. 40—45. (In Russian).
8. Kleiner G. B. (2021). Spiral dynamics, system cycles and new organizational models: Pearlescent enterprises. Russian Management Journal, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 471—496. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu18.2020.401
9. Cordeiro J. L., Wood D. (2021). Death must die. Moscow: Alpina Publishers. (In Russian).
10. Popper R. (2012). Mapping futures studies. Foresight-Russia, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 56—74. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.17323/1995-459X.2012.2.56.74
11. Smorodinskaya N. V., Katukov D. D. (2020). Global value chains: How to enhance resilience under sudden shocks? Outlines of Global Transformations: Politics, Economics, Law, Vol. 13, No. 6, pp. 30—50. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.23932/2542-0240-2020-13-6-2
12. Sokolov A., Chulok A. (2012). Russian science and technology foresight — 2030: Key features and first results. Foresight-Russia, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp. 12—25. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.17323/1995-459X.2012.1.12.25
13. Tambovtsev V. L. (2020). Narrative analysis in economics as climbing complexity. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 4, pp. 5—30. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2020-4-5-30
14. Chepurenko A. (2019). Entrepreneurship ecosystems in post-socialist economies. Foresight and STI Governance, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 6—8. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.17323/2500-2597.2019.4.6.8
15. Chulok A. А. (2009). Forecast of S&T development prospects of the key economy sectors in Russia: Future tasks. Foresight-Russia, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 30—36. (In Russian). https://doi.org/10.17323/1995-459X.2009.3.30.36
16. Chulok A. A. (2021). Method for dealing with the future in the era of uncertainty. Harvard Business Review Russia, February 4. (In Russian). https://hbr-russia.ru/biznes-i-obshchestvo/nauka/854793
17. Chulok A., Milshina Y., Radomirova Y., Pavlova D. (2021). Trump up the sleeve: The jokers’ foresight radar and the possibilities of the decade. RBC Trends, June 10. (In Russian). https://trends.rbc.ru/trends/futurology/60c0c7a89a79476f17f67437
18. Acs Z. J., Audretsch D. B., Lehmann E. E., Licht G. (2017a). National systems of innovation. Journal of Technology Transfer, Vol. 42, No. 5, pp. 997—1008. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10961-016-9481-8
19. Acs Z., Stam E., Audretsch D., O’Connor A. (2017b). The lineages of the entrepreneurial ecosystem approach. Small Business Economics, Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 1—10. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-017-9864-8
20. Ambos B., Brandl K., Perri A., Scalera V. G., Assche A. V. (2021). The nature of innovation in global value chains. Journal of World Business, Vol. 56, No. 4, article 101221, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jwb.2021.101221
21. Amnon F., Shlomo M., Eran L., Emil I. (2015). Demand-driven innovation: An integrative systems-based review of the literature. International Journal of Innovation & Technology Management, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 1—31.
22. Audretsch D., Mason C., Miles M. P., O’Connor A. (2021). Time and the dynamics of entrepreneurial ecosystems. Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, Vol. 33, No. 1—2, pp. 1—14. https://doi.org/10.1080/08985626.2020.1734257
23. Battistella C., Pillon R. (2016). Foresight for regional policy: Тechnological and regional fit. Foresight, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 93—116. https://doi-org.proxylibrary.hse.ru/10.1108/FS-09-2014-0058
24. Botev J. et al. (2019). A new macroeconomic measure of human capital with strong empirical links to productivity. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1575. https://doi.org/10.1787/d12d7305-en
25. Burda Y. D., Volkova I. O., Gavrikova E. V. (2020). Meaningful analysis of innovation, business and entrepreneurial ecosystem concepts. Russian Management Journal, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 73—102. https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu18.2020.104
26. Calof J., Richards G., Smith J. (2015). Foresight, competitive intelligence and business analytics — tools for making industrial programmes more efficient. Foresight-Russia, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 68—81. https://doi.org/10.17323/1995-459X.2015.1.68.81
27. Calof J., Rubén A., Sewdass N. (2020). Competitive intelligence practices of European firms. In: D. Sarpong, D. Meissner (eds.). Corporate foresight and innovation management. Routledge, pp. 45—61.
28. Carayannis E. G., Campbell D. F. (2009). “Mode 3” and “Quadruple Helix”: Toward a 21st century fractal innovation ecosystem. International Journal of Technology Management, Vol. 46, No. 3—4, pp. 201—234. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJTM.2009.023374
29. Carayannis E. G., Grigoroudis E., Campbell D. F., Meissner D., Stamati D. (2018). The ecosystem as helix: An exploratory theory-building study of regional co-opetitive entrepreneurial ecosystems as Quadruple/Quintuple Helix Innovation Models. R&D Management, Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 148—162. https://doi.org/10.1111/radm.12300
30. Cha H. (2020). A paradigm shift in the global strategy of MNEs towards business ecosystems: A research agenda for new theory development. Journal of International Management, Vol. 26, No. 3, article 100755. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intman.2020.100755
31. Chen H., Wang S., Song M. (2021). Global environmental value chain embeddedness and enterprise production efficiency improvement. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Vol. 58, pp. 278—290. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.06.004
32. Cunningham J. A., Menter M., O’Kane C. (2018). Value creation in the quadruple helix: A micro level conceptual model of principal investigators as value creators. R&D Management, Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 136—147. https://doi.org/10.1111/radm.12310
33. Daheim C., Uerz G. (2008). Corporate foresight in Europe: From trend based logics to open foresight. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, Vol. 20, No. 3, pp. 321—336. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320802000047
34. Datta S., Saad M., Sarpong D. (2019). National systems of innovation, innovation niches, and diversity in university systems. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 143, pp. 27—36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.02.005
35. De Silva M., Gokhberg L., Meissner D., Russo M. (2021). Addressing societal challenges through the simultaneous generation of social and business values: A conceptual framework for science-based co-creation. Technovation, Vol. 104, article 102268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.technovation.2021.102268
36. DeVasconcelos Gomes L. A., Flechas X. A., Facin A. L. F., Borini F. M. (2021). Ecosystem management: Past achievements and future promises. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 171, article 120950. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120950
37. Dedehayir O., Mäkinen S. J., Ortt J. R. (2018). Roles during innovation ecosystem genesis: A literature review. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 136, pp. 18—29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.11.028
38. Edquist C. (еd.) (1997). Systems of innovation: Technologies, institutions and organizations. London: Pinter Publishers/Cassell Academic.
39. Etzkowitz H., Dzisah J. (2008). Rethinking development: Сirculation in the triple helix. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, Vol. 20, No. 6, pp. 653—666. https://doi.org/10.1080/09537320802426309
40. Etzkowitz H., Leydesdorff L. (2000). The dynamics of innovation: From national systems and ‘Mode 2’ to a Triple Helix of university—industry—government relations. Research Policy, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 109—123. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0048-7333(99)00055-4
41. Freeman C. (1995). The “National System of Innovation” in historical perspective. Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 5—24.
42. Fuller J., Jacobides M. G., Reeves M. (2019). The myths and realities of business ecosystems. MIT Sloan Management Review, February 25. https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-myths-and-realities-of-business-ecosystems/
43. Georghiou L., Harper C. J., Keenan M., Miles I., Popper R. (eds.) (2008). The handbook of technology foresight: Сoncepts and practice. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
44. Gereffi G., Humphrey J., Kaplinsky R., Sturgeon T. J. (2001). Introduction: Globalisation, value chains and development. IDS Bulletin, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 1—8. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1759-5436.2001.mp32003001.x
45. Gheorghiu R., Andreescu L., Curaj A. (2016). A foresight toolkit for smart specialization and entrepreneurial discovery. Futures, Vol. 80, pp. 33—44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2016.04.001
46. Godin B. (2007). National innovation system: The system approach in historical perspective. Project on the History and Sociology of STI Statistics Working Paper, No. 36.
47. Godin B. (2017). Models of innovation: The history of an idea. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
48. Gokhberg L., Sokolov A., Chulok A. (2017). Russian S&T foresight 2030: Identifying new drivers оf growth. Foresight, Vol. 19, No. 5, pp. 441—456. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-07-2017-0029
49. Grant R. M. (2003). Strategic planning in a turbulent environment: Evidence from the oil majors. Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 24, No. 6, pp. 491—518. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.314
50. Greve H. R. (2008). A behavioral theory of firm growth: Sequential attention to size and performance goals. Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 51, No. 3, pp. 476—494. https://doi.org/10.5465/amj.2008.32625975
51. Greve H., Teh D. (2018). Goal selection internally and externally: A behavioural theory of institutionalization. International Journal of Management Reviews, Vol. 20, No. S1, pp. S19—S38. https://doi.org/10.1111/ijmr.12138
52. Halbert M. H., Ackoff R. L. (1959). An operations research study of the dissemination of scientific information. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Scientific Information, Vol. 1. Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences, pp. 97—130.
53. Higdem U. (2014). The co-creation of regional futures: Facilitating action research in regional foresight. Futures, Vol. 57, pp. 41—50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2014.01.006
54. Isenberg D. (2010). How to start an entrepreneurial revolution. Harvard Business Review, June. https://hbr.org/2010/06/the-big-idea-how-to-start-an-entrepreneurial-revolution
55. Isenberg D. (2011). The entrepreneurship ecosystem strategy as a new paradigm for economy policy: Principles for cultivating entrepreneurship. Babson Park: MA: Babson College.
56. Ivanova I., Smorodinskaya N., Leydesdorff L. (2020). On measuring complexity in a post-industrial economy: The ecosystem’s approach. Quality and Quantity, Vol. 54, pp. 197—212. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-019-00844-2
57. Jacobides M. G., Cennamo C., Gawer A. (2018). Towards a theory of ecosystems. Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 39, No. 8, pp. 2255—2276. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.2904
58. Jucevičius G., Grumadaitė K. (2014). Smart development of innovation ecosystem. Procedia — Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 156, pр. 125—129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.11.133
59. Kaplinsky R. (2000). Spreading the gains from globalisation: What can be learned from value chain analysis? Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 117—146. https://doi.org/10.1080/713600071
60. Kaplinsky R. (2004). Spreading the gains from globalization: What can be learned from value-chain analysis? Problems of Economic Transition, Vol. 47, No. 2, pp. 74—115.
61. Kaplinsky R. (2013). Global value chains: Where they came from, where they are going and why this is important. IKD Working Paper, No. 68. Milton Keynes: The Open University.
62. Kapoor K., Bigdeli A. Z., Dwivedi Y. K., Schroeder A., Beltagui A., Baines T. (2021). A socio-technical view of platform ecosystems: Systematic review and research agenda. Journal of Business Research, Vol. 128, pp. 94—108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.01.060
63. Lee K., Lee J., Lee J. (2021). Variety of national innovation systems (NIS) and alternative pathways to growth beyond the middle-income stage: Balanced, imbalanced, catching-up, and trapped NIS. World Development, Vol. 144, article 105472. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105472
64. Lee T.-L., von Tunzelmann N. (2005). A dynamic analytic approach to national innovation systems: The IC industry in Taiwan. Research Policy, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 425—440, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2005.01.009
65. Leydesdorff L. (2012). The knowledge-based economy and the triple helix model. Annual Review of Information Science and Technology, Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 365—417. https://doi.org/10.1002/aris.2010.1440440116
66. Linde L., Sjödin D., Parida V., Wincent J. (2021). Dynamic capabilities for ecosystem orchestration: A capability-based framework for smart city innovation initiatives. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 166, article 120614. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120614
67. Lundvall B. A. (1992). National systems of innovation: Toward a theory of innovation and interactive learning. London: Anthem Press.
68. Mack E., Mayer Р. (2016). The evolutionary dynamics of entrepreneurial ecosystems. Urban Studies, Vol. 53, No. 10, pp. 2118—2133. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098015586547
69. Meshkova T., Moiseichev E. (2016). Foresight applications to the analysis of global value chains. Foresight and STI Governance, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 69—82. https://doi.org/10.17323/1995-459x.2016.1.69.82
70. Miles I., Meissner D., Vonortas N. S., Carayannis E. (2017). Technology foresight in transition. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 119, pp. 211—218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.04.009
71. Mintzberg H. (1994). The rise and fall of strategic planning: Reconceiving roles for planning, plans, planners. New York: Free Press.
72. Möller K., Nenonen S., Storbacka K. (2020). Networks, ecosystems, fields, market systems? Making sense of the business environment. Industrial Marketing Management, Vol. 90, pp. 380—399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2020.07.013
73. Moore J. F. (1993). Predators and prey: A new ecology of competition. Harvard Business Review, May—June. https://hbr.org/1993/05/predators-and-prey-a-new-ecologyof-competition
74. Moore J. F. (1996). The death of competition: Leadership and strategy in the age of business ecosystems. New York: HarperBusiness.
75. Munigala V., Oinonen P., Ekman K. (2018). Envisioning future innovative experimental ecosystems through the foresight approach. Case: Design Factory. European Journal of Futures Research, Vol. 6, article 1. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40309-017-0128-2
76. Naglioni D., Winkler D. (2016). Making global value chains work for development. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0157-0_fm
77. Nelson R. R. (1993). National innovation systems: A comparative analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
78. OECD (1997). National innovation systems. Paris.
79. Palmié M., Wincent J., Parida V., Caglar U. (2020). The evolution of the financial technology ecosystem: An introduction and agenda for future research on disruptive innovations in ecosystems. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 151, article 119779. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119779
80. Paredes-Frigolett H., Pyka A., Leoneti A.B. (2021). On the performance and strategy of innovation systems: A multicriteria group decision analysis approach. Technology in Society, Vol. 67, article 101632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2021.101632
81. Phillips M.A., Ritala P. (2019). A complex adaptive systems agenda for ecosystem research methodology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 148, article 119739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119739
82. Pidun U., Reeves M., Schüssler M. (2019). Do you need a business ecosystem? BCG, September 27. https://www.bcg.com/ru-ru/publications/2019/do-you-need-business-ecosystem
83. Pleticha P. (2021). Who benefits from global value chain participation? Does functional specialization matter? Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Vol. 58, pp. 291—299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.06.005
84. Ravetz J., Miles I. D. (2016). Foresight in cities: Оn the possibility of a “strategic urban intelligence”. Foresight, Vol. 18, No. 5, pp. 469—490. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-06-2015-0037
85. Robertson J., Caruana A., Ferreira C. (2021). Innovation performance: The effect of knowledge-based dynamic capabilities in cross-country innovation ecosystems. International Business Review, [in press], article 101866, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ibusrev.2021.101866
86. Rohrbeck R. (2010). Corporate foresight: Towards a maturity model for the future orientation of a firm. Berlin: Springer.
87. Rohrbeck R., Battistella C., Huizingh E. (2015a). Corporate foresight: An emerging field with a rich tradition. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 101, pp. 1—9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.002
88. Rohrbeck R., Thom N., Arnold H. M. (2015b). IT tools for foresight: The integrated insight and response system of Deutsche Telekom innovation laboratories. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 97, pp. 115—126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.015
89. Rong K., Wu J., Shi, Y., Guo L. (2015). Nurturing business ecosystems for growth in a foreign market: Incubating, identifying and integrating stakeholders. Journal of International Management, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 293—308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intman.2015.07.004
90. Roundy P. T., Bradshaw M., Brockman B. K. (2018). The emergence of entrepreneurial ecosystems: A complex adaptive systems approach. Journal of Business Research, Vol. 86, pp. 1—10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2018.01.032
91. Saritas O. (2013). Systemic foresight methodology. In: D. Meissner et al. (eds.). Science, technology and innovation policy for the future. Springer.
92. Sengupta A., Sena V. (2020). Impact of open innovation on industries and firms — A dynamic complex systems view. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 159, article 120199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120199
93. Smorodinskaya N., Russell M., Katukov D., Still K. (2017). Innovation ecosystems vs. innovation systems in terms of collaboration and co-creation of value. Proceedings of the 50th Hawaii international conference on system sciences, pp. 5245—5254. https://doi.org/10.24251/HICSS.2017.636
94. Sokolov A., Chulok A. (2016). Priorities for future innovation: Russian S&T foresight 2030. Futures, Vol. 80, pp. 17—32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2015.12.005
95. SOIF (2021). Features of effective systemic foresight in governments around the world. London: School of International Futures.
96. Stam E. (2015). Entrepreneurial ecosystems and regional policy: А sympathetic critique. European Planning Studies, Vol. 23, No. 9, pp. 1759—1769. https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2015.1061484
97. Stam E., Spigel B. (2017). Entrepreneurial ecosystems. In: R. Blackburn, D. De Clercq, J. Heinonen, Z. Wang (eds.). Handbook for entrepreneurship and small business. London: Sage.
98. Stam E., van de Ven H. (2019). Entrepreneurial ecosystem elements. Small Business Economics, Vol. 56, pp. 809—832. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-019-00270-6
99. Tang T. Y., Zhang S.K., Peng J. (2021). The value of marketing innovation: Market-driven versus market-driving. Journal of Business Research, Vol. 126, pp. 88—98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.12.067
100. Trabskaja J., Mets T. (2019). Ecosystem as the source of entrepreneurial opportunities. Foresight and STI Governance, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 10—22. https://doi.org/10.17323/2500-2597.2019.4.10.22
101. Tsujimoto M., Kajikawa Y., Tomita J., Matsumoto Y. (2018). A review of the ecosystem concept — Towards coherent ecosystem design. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 136, pp. 49—58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.06.032
102. van Dorsser C., Taneja P. (2020). An integrated three-layered foresight framework. Foresight, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 250—272. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-05-2019-0039
103. WEF (2020). The future of jobs report 2020. Geneva: World Economic Forum.
104. Wilson D., Kirman A. P. (eds.) (2016). Complexity and evolution: Toward a new synthesis for economics. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
105. World Bank (2020). World development report 2020: Trading for development in the age of global value chains. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1457-0
106. Yin D., Ming X., Zhang X. (2020). Sustainable and smart product innovation ecosystem: An integrative status review and future perspectives. Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 274, article 123005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123005
Supplementary files
Review
For citations:
Chulok A.A. Foresight as a tool for creating and managing a company’s ecosystem. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2022;(3):52-76. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2022-3-52-76