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Fiscal policy as a source of economic growth
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2017-10-5-26
Abstract
We investigate mechanisms of budget expenditures structure influence on economic development. General government fiscal multiplier in various functional directions is estimated. We show that productive expenses in general have bigger multiplicative effect on GDP, than unproductive ones. By means of multiplicative effects models estimation for various functional items we calculate potential effect on economic growth of the budget maneuver in favor of productive expenses and the implemented effect of the recent years budget expenditures structure change. We show that resources redistribution from non-productive expenses to productive ones could increase long-term rates of economic growth approximately by 0,8 p. p. per year. On the contrary, the budget expenditures structure change observed during 2011-2017 has a negative impact on average annual rates of economic growth about 0,3 p. p. per year.
Keywords
VAR-модели,
VAR,
time series,
fiscal policy,
budget maneuver,
state budget,
budget expenditures structure,
economic growth,
fiscal multiplier
JEL: C32; H11; H30; H61
About the Authors
A. Kudrin
St. Petersburg State University; Fund “Center for Strategic Research”
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
A. Knobel
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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Review
For citations:
Kudrin A., Knobel A. Fiscal policy as a source of economic growth. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2017;(10):5-26. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2017-10-5-26
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