Generate QR code
Open Access
Subscription Access
Fiscal maneuver and restructuring the Russian economy
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2017-9-5-27
Abstract
The paper discusses fiscal policy parameters for the period through 2024. The suggested way to ensure long-term fiscal stability is stabilization of both the general government revenues and expenditure in percent of GDP at levels differing by the public debt service payments, and then applying a new version of the fiscal rule. Redistribution of fiscal spending from “unproductive” to “productive” areas (primarily investment in human and physical capital) is considered as a way to boost economic growth. Possible use of additional spending on education, public health, and transport system is presented, as well as optimization of expenditures in “nonproductive” areas.
Keywords
fiscal policy,
fiscal maneuver,
state budget,
productive expenditures,
budget expenditures structure,
structural reforms,
economic growth
JEL: B22; H21; H30; H41; H51; H52; H54; H55; H56; H61; H62
About the Authors
A. Kudrin
St. Petersburg State University; Fund “Center for Strategic Research”
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
I. Sokolov
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
1. Goryunov E., Kotlikoff L., Sinelnikov-Murylev S. (2015). Fiscal gap: An estimate for Russia. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 7, pp. 5—25. (In Russian).
2. Gurvich E., Sonina Yu. (2012). Microanalysis of the Russia’s pension system. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 2, pp. 27—51. (In Russian).
3. Ivanova M., Balaev A., Gurvich E. (2017). Implications of higher retirement age for the labor market. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 3, pp. 22—39. (In Russian).
4. Idrisov G., Sinelnikov-Murylev S. (2013). Budget policy and economic growth. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 8, pp. 33—59. (In Russian).
5. Kudrin A., Gurvich E. (2012). Population aging and risks of budget crisis. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 3, pp. 52—79. (In Russian).
6. Mau V. A., Kouzminov Ya. I. (eds.) (2013). Strategy 2020: A new growth model — new social policy. Moscow: Delo. (In Russian).
7. IMF (2014). World economic outlook: Legacies, clouds, uncertainties. Wash., October.
8. Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation (2015). Main guidelines of increasing efficiency of the federal budget expenditures. Мoscow. (In Russian).
9. Acosta-Ormaechea S., Morozumi A. (2013). Can a government enhance long-run growth by changing the composition of public expenditure? IMF Working Paper, No. WP/13/162.
10. Adam C., Bevan L. (2005). Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries. Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 89, No. 4, pp. 571-597.
11. Afonso A., Jalles T. (2013). Fiscal composition and long-term growth. ECB Working Paper Series, No. 1518. Frankfurt am Main: European Central Bank.
12. Aghion P., Howitt P., Murtin F. (2010). The relationship between health and growth: When Lucas meets Nelson-Phelps. NBER Working Paper, No. 15813.
13. Baldacci E., Clements B., Gupta S., Cui Q. (2008). Social spending, human capital, and growth in developing countries. World Development, Vol. 36, No. 8, pp. 1317-1341.
14. Barbiero O., Cournède B.(2013). New econometric estimates of long-term growth effects of different areas of public spending. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1100.
15. Barro R. (1990). Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, No. 5, pp. 103-125.
16. Bayrak M., Esen Ö. (2014). Examining the validity of Wagner’s law in the OECD economies. Research in Applied Economics, Vol. 6, No. 3, p. 1-16.
17. Catão L., Terrones M. (2005). Fiscal deficits and inflation. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 52, No. 3, pp. 529-554.
18. Fournier J., Johansson A. (2016). The effect of the size and the mix of public spending on growth and inequality. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1344. Paris: OECD Publishing.
19. Gemmell N., Kneller R., Sanz I. (2011). The timing and persistence of fiscal policy impacts on growth: Evidence from OECD countries. Economic Journal, Vol. 121, No. 550, pp. F33-F58.
20. Goryunov E., Kazakova M., Kotlikoff L., Mamedov A., Nazarov V., Nesterova K., Trunin P., Shpenev A. (2013). Russia’s fiscal gap. NBER Working Paper, No. 19608.
21. IMF (2014). Is it time for an infrastructure push? The macroeconomic effects of public investment. In: World economic outlook: Legacies, clouds, uncertainties. Washington, DC, Ch. 3, pp. 75-114.
22. IMF (2015a). Fiscal Monitor. Now is the time: Fiscal policies for sustainable growth. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
23. IMF (2015b). Fiscal policy and long-term growth (IMF Policy Paper). Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
24. IMF (2017). Fiscal Monitor. Achieving more with less. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
25. Lamartina S., Zaghin A. (2011). Increasing public expenditure: Wagner’s law in OECD countries. German Economic Review, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 149-164.
26. Lin H.-Y., Chu H.-P. (2013). Are fiscal deficits inflationary? Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 32, No. 1, pp. 214-233.
27. Mourougane A., Botev J., Fournier J.-M., Pain N., Rusticelli E. (2016). Can an increase in public investment sustainably lift economic growth? OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1351. Paris: OECD Publishing.
28. OECD (2001). Competition policy in subsidies and state aid. Paris: OECD Publishing.
29. Wagner A. (1883). Three extracts on public finance. In: R. A. Musgrave, A. T. Peacock (eds.) (1958). Classics in the theory of public finance. London: Macmillan, pp. 1-15.
Review
For citations:
Kudrin A., Sokolov I. Fiscal maneuver and restructuring the Russian economy. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2017;(9):5-27. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2017-9-5-27
Views:
1417
Email this article 
