Generate QR code
Open Access
Subscription Access
Debates on monetary policy issues and economic situation: Searching for constructive comments
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2016-5-25-43
Abstract
The article discusses approaches and instruments used in the Bank of Russia public analytical materials for analysis and forecast of macroeconomic conditions and monetary indicators. The authors focus on indicators of business cycle and monetary conditions, as crucial for monetary policy analysis. The attention is paid to issues most frequently discussed in scientific and expert literature, specifically, to new indicators and models presented in the Bank of Russia Monetary Policy Reports in 2015.
About the Authors
A. Mogilat
Bank of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Y. Achkasov
Bank of Russia; National Research University Higher School of Economics
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
A. Egorov
Bank of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
A. Klimovets
Bank of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
S. Donets
Bank of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
1. Altunyan A. G. (2015). Priorities of monetary policy in the context of national interests. Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo Universiteta, Series 5, No. 1, pp. 103—115. (In Russian).
2. Apokin A., Galimov D., Goloshchapova I., Salnikov V., Solntsev O. (2015). Russian monetary policy: Work on the bugs. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 9, pp. 136—151. (In Russian).
3. Achkasov Yu. (2016). Nowcasting of the Russian GDP using the current statistics: Approach modification. Bank of Russia Working Paper Series, No. 8. (In Russian).
4. Badasen P., Isakov A., Khazanov A. (2015). Modern monetary policy: Relevant criticism or misunderstanding in the expert community? Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 6, pp. 128—142. (In Russian).
5. Bank of Russia (2015). Monetary Policy Report, No. 3. (In Russian).
6. Giblova N. M. (2015). Bank of Russia: A shift in monetary policy? Bankovskoe Kreditovanie, No. 3, pp. 15—23. (In Russian).
7. Glazyev S. Yu. (2015). National monetary and financial system: Destabilizing efforts of the West and ways of their neutralization. Rossiyskiy Ekonomicheskiy Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 34—43. (In Russian).
8. Deryugina E., Kovalenko O., Pantina E., Ponomarenko A. (2015). Identifying factors of credit supply and demand in Russia. Bank of Russia Working Paper Series, No. 3. (In Russian).
9. Donets S., Ponomarenko A. (2015). Debt level indicators. Bank of Russia Working Paper Series, No. 5. (In Russian).
10. Mogilat A. N. (2015). Bankruptcy in Russian real sector: Basic tendencies and financial indicators of a typical bankrupt. In: A. G. Korovkin (ed.). Nauchnye trudy: Institut Narodnokhozyaystvennogo Prognozirovaniya RAN. Moscow: MAKS Press, pp. 156—186. (In Russian).
11. Polyakov E. (2013). Reasons for the crisis — internal. Expert, No. 46, pp. 38—44. (In Russian).
12. Salnikov V. A., Mogilat A. N., Maslov I. Yu. (2012). Stress testing for Russian real sector: First approach. Zhurnal Novoy Ekonomicheskoy Assotsiatsii, No. 4, pp. 46—70. (In Russian).
13. Tumanyants K. A., Utuchenkova M. V. (2015). Specifics of credit channel functioning of the monetary transmission mechanism in Russia. Financy i Kredit, No. 33, pp. 31—39. (In Russian).
14. Bartelsman E., Doms M. (2000). Understanding productivity: Lessons from longitudinal microdata. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 38, No. 3, pp. 569-594.
15. Bellovary J., Giacomino D., Akers M. (2007). A review of bankruptcy prediction studies: 1930 to present. Journal of Financial Education, Vol. 33, No. 4, pp. 1-42.
16. Carabenciov I., Ermolaev I., Freedman C., Juillard M., Kamenik O., Korshunov D., Laxton D. (2008). A small quarterly projection model of the US economy. IMF Working Papers, No. 08/278.
17. Corrado C., Mattey J. (1997). Capacity utilization. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 151-167.
18. Drehmann M., Juselius M. (2012). Do debt service costs affect macroeconomic and financial stability? BIS Quarterly Review, September, pp. 21-35.
19. ECB (2011). Monthly Bulletin, No. 01/2011, January.
20. Foster L., Haltiwanger J., Krizan C.J. (2005). Reallocation, firm turnover, and efficiency: Selection on productivity or profitability? NBER Working Paper Series, No. 11555.
21. Gepp A., Kumar K. (2012). Business failure prediction using statistical techniques: A review. Bond Business School Publications. Paper 675.
22. Jakab Z., Kumhof M. (2015). Banks are not intermediaries of loanable funds - and why this matters. Bank of England Working Papers, No. 529.
23. Jardin P. (2010). Predicting bankruptcy using neural networks and other classification methods: The influence of variable selection techniques on model accuracy. Neurocomputing, Vol. 73, No. 10-12, pp. 2047-2060.
24. Karels G., Prakash A. (1987). Multivariate normality and forecasting of business bankruptcy. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Vol. 14, No. 4, pp. 573-593.
25. King G., Zeng L. (2001). Logistic regression in rare events data. Political Analysis, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 137-163.
26. Office for Budget Responsibility (2011). Estimating output gap. Briefing Papers, No. 2.
27. Platt H. D., Platt M. B. (2008). Financial distress comparison across three global regions. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 129-162.
Review
For citations:
Mogilat A., Achkasov Y., Egorov A., Klimovets A., Donets S. Debates on monetary policy issues and economic situation: Searching for constructive comments. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2016;(5):25-43. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2016-5-25-43
Views:
1091
Email this article 
