Preview

Voprosy Ekonomiki

Advanced search
Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription Access

The impact of the embargo and sanctions on the agri-food markets in Russia: Analysis of consequences

https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2016-4-124-143

Abstract

The paper examines the impact of the embargo and sanctions on the agri-food markets in Russia. The analysis has shown that markets of milk and beef are experiencing serious problems. One of the main reasons for market volatility is a relatively low share of large enterprises with better adaptability in conditions of the embargo and sanctions and underdeveloped market infrastructure. The method that allows to quantify the consequences of the embargo and sanctions impact for the commodity markets is developed on the basis of a partial equilibrium model. The method has been tested on the meat markets (beef, pork, poultry). The estimates of changes in foreign trade, prices of producers and consumers, the dynamics of production, losses of budget, producers and consumers are provided. The results show that the budget suffers losses in all cases, and the markets with higher dependence on imports under the impact of the embargo and sanctions lose more in the welfare than those with less dependence. Poultry market has shown good stability and welfare under the embargo and sanctions due to high competition, mainly among large enterprises.

About the Author

K. Borodin
All-Russian Institute of Agrarian Problems and Informatics n/a A. A. Nikonov
Russian Federation


References

1. Akhmetov R. G., Stratonovich Yu. R. (2015). Beef production in Russia — the current state and prospects of development. Ekonomika Selskokhozyaistvennykh i Pererabatyvayushchikh Predpriyatiy, No. 5, pp. 19—22. (In Russian).

2. Borodin K. G. (2016). Forecasting model of commodity markets development in the conditions of changing measures of state policy. Ekonomika i Matematicheskie Metody, No. 1, pp. 95—111. (In Russian).

3. Gataulina E. (2012). A comparative analysis of agrarian structures of Russia and the United States. Otechestvennye Zapiski, No. 6, pp. 134—161. (In Russian).

4. Grudkin A. A., Babenkova S. N. (2014). Directions of perfection of dairy farming state support. Ekonomika Selskokhozyaistvennykh i Pererabatyvayushchikh Predpriyatiy, No. 4, pp. 33—37. (In Russian).

5. Knobel A., Chokaev B. (2014). Possible economic effects of CU—EU trade agreement. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 2, pp. 68—87. (In Russian).

6. Lesnyak T. (2012). Taxes in agriculture. Agriculture in Russia: [online serial], April 18. (In Russian).

7. Mau V. et al. (2015). The Russian economy in 2014. Trends and Prospects (Vol. 36). Moscow: Gaidar Institute Publ. (In Russian).

8. Siptitz S. O. et al. (2009). Long-term forecasts of agri-food markets development in Russia. Moscow: VIAPI; ERD. (In Russian).

9. Radchenko T. et al. (2015). Food embargoes: Import substitution and changes in foreign trade structure. Bulletin of the Development of Competition. Iss. 11. Moscow: Analytical Center under the Government of Russian Federation. (In Russian).

10. Antonova M., Zeller M. (2007). A time series analysis of the beef supply response in Russia: Implications for agricultural sector development policies. European Association of Agricultural Economists, 104th Seminar, September 5-8, Budapest, Hungary.

11. Aris B. (2014). Impact of sanctions on Russia: An assessment. European Leadership Network. Policy Brief. June 25.

12. Berman N. (2009). Financial crises and international trade: The long way to recovery. European University Institute Economics Working Papers, No. MWP 2009/04.

13. Caruso R. (2003). The impact of international economic sanctions on trade. An empirical analysis. Paper prepared for the European Peace Science Conference, June 1-3, Amsterdam.

14. Chung C., Zhang T., Peel D. S. (2009). Effects of country of origin labeling in the U.S. meat industry with imperfectly competitive processors. Agricultural and Resource Economic Review, Vol. 38, No. 3, pp. 406-417.

15. Elsner K. (1999). Analyzing Russian food expenditure using micro-data. IAMO discussion paper, No. 23.

16. FAO (2014). Russia’s restrictions on imports of agricultural and food products: An initial assessment. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN.

17. Hufbauer G., Oegg B. (2003). The impact of economic sanctions on US trade: Andrew Rose’s gravity model. International Economics Policy Briefs, No. PB03-4.

18. Hupkova D., Bielik P. (2009). Estimating demand elasticities of meat demand in Slovakia. Paper prepared for the 113th EAAE Seminar, September 3-6, Crete, Greece.

19. Kraatz S. (2014). The Russian embargo: Impact on the economic and employment situation in the EU. European Parliament. October. PE 536.291.

20. Kutlina-Dimitrova Z. (2015). The economic impact of the Russian import ban: A CGE analysis. European Commission. Trade. Chief Economist Note, Iss. 3.

21. Rajan R., Singales L. (1998). Financial dependence and growth. The American Economic Review, Vol. 88, No. 3, pp. 559-586.

22. Rose A. K. (2002). Do we really know that the WTO increases trade? NBER Working Paper, No. 9273.

23. Rose A. K., Glick R. (2001). Does a currency union affect trade? The time series evidence. NBER Working Paper, No. 8396.

24. Shiptsova R., Thomsen M. R., Goodwin H. L. (2002). Producer welfare changes from meat and poultry recalls. Journal of Food Distribution Research, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 25-33.

25. Song W. (2006). Import demand elasticities for agricultural products in Korea. Unpublished manuscript, Asia-Pacific Economic Association.

26. Szczepański M. (2015). EPRS economic impact on the EU of sanctions over Ukraine conflict. European Parliament. October. PE 569.020.

27. Wang D., Parton K. A., Deblitz C. (2008). Impact of potential dairy-beef production on China’s beef supply, demand and international trade. Australasian Agribusiness Review, Vol. 16, Paper 4.


Review

For citations:


Borodin K. The impact of the embargo and sanctions on the agri-food markets in Russia: Analysis of consequences. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2016;(4):124-143. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2016-4-124-143

Views: 1160


ISSN 0042-8736 (Print)