Professor Tinbergen’s Method

Abstract

The article written by the classic of economic science in 1939, which is published in Russian for the first time, contains a critique of the application of econometric methods in economics. The object of criticism is one of the first large-scale econometric studies - the book by J. Tinbergen on business cycles. Keynes points at the arbitrariness of many econometric judgments, at the problems of causality and forecast in econometrics. He also mentions that a lot of economic problems cannot be analyzed by means of econometric technique.