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Some Findings of the Empirical Analysis of the 2008—2009 Global Crisis Determinants
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2012-4-32-45
Abstract
The paper synthesizes the results of the empirical research of the 2008—2009 global economic crisis determinants. Some of them are additionally tested and specified. In particular, the so called decoupling hypothesis is suggested to be split into weak and strong forms: the developing economies appear to have been vulnerable to the global crisis, but in a lesser degree than the OECD countries. Trade determinants of the crisis haven't proved their dominant significance over financial channel factors. Public debt relative to GDP is a new variable on the crisis determinants list, as it limited the scale of stabilizing policies during the crisis due to growing risks of violating public finance resilience. The paper also shows that the probability of a new crisis comparable to the 2008—2009 global recession has not reduced and poses a serious challenge to the world economy now.
Keywords
global economic crisis,
decoupling hypothesis,
financial channel of the crisis,
trade channel of the crisis,
international reserves,
terms of trade
JEL: C51; E44; E66; F40; G01
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Review
For citations:
Stolbov M. Some Findings of the Empirical Analysis of the 2008—2009 Global Crisis Determinants. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2012;(4):32-45. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2012-4-32-45
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