|Generate QR code
Open Access
Subscription Access
Impending recession and how to fight it: Empirical analysis of Russian reality and global experience
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2014-1-78-107
Abstract
The paper considers the problem of autonomous recessions in the Russian economy, which are explained as a drop of the output caused by endogenous shocks of the supply and/or demand. In order to determine possible factors of the autonomous recession we consider the stylized facts and other characteristics of such recessions in OECD economies in 2000—2012. Using these findings we study the current state of the Russian economy in terms of factors of a possible recession. We also examine the countercyclical policy of the government. The latter is done using different approaches of calculation of the output gap, including the determination of the levels of factor utilization that don’t accelerate the inflation rate. These results are used to make a conclusion about the optimal design of the countercyclical policy that reflects the characteristics of the recession and the output gap as well as the key features of Russia as a resource-based economy.
About the Authors
V. Mironov
Institute “Center of Development”, National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow, Russia)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
V. Kanofyev
Institute “Center of Development”, National Research University Higher School of Economics (Moscow, Russia)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
1. Institute “Center of Development”, SU–HSE (2009). The Role of Economic Cycles in the Development of the Russian Economy. Research Report within the Program of Fundamental Research (Final). Moscow.
2. Institute “Center of Development”, NRU HSE (2013). Development of a Risk Management System of Predicting and Preventing Crises. CMASF Report on Research for the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation (The Final Report). Theme No 0110-03-12. Section 1.3. Moscow.
3. Kazakova M. V., Sinelnikov-Murylev S. G., Kadochnikov P. A. (2009). Analysis of Structural and Business Components of the Tax Burden in the Russian Economy. Moscow: IEP Publ.
4. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation (2012). Main Variants of the Sovereign Debt Policy of the Russian Federation for 2013—2015. Moscow.
5. The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation (2013). The Forecast of Social and Economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2014 and the Planning Period 2015—2016. Moscow.
6. Mironov V. (2009). Influence of the World Economic Crisis on the Real Sector of the Russian Economy // Journal of the New Economic Association. No 3—4. P. 214—223.
7. Center of Development (2009). Scenario Forecast of the Global Cycle and the Effect of the Global Recession on the Russian Economy in the Medium Term. Research report on the state contract No 0101-03-09, 07.09.09 for the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation (The Final Report). Moscow.
8. Borio C., Disyatat P., Juselius M. (2013). Rethinking Potential Output: Embedding Information about the Financial Cycle // BIS Working Papers. No 404.
9. Bussiere M., Imbs J., Kollmann R. (2013). The Financial Crisis: Lessons for International Macroeconomics // American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. Vol. 5, No 3. P. 75—84.
10. Claessens S., Kose A. M., Terrones M. E. (2011). How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact? // IMF Working Paper. No 11/88.
11. Dell’Ariccia G., Igan D., Laeven L., Tong H. (with Bakker B., Vandenbussche J.) (2012). Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: How to Deal with Credit Booms // IMF Staff Discussion Note. No SDN/12/06.
12. Drehmann M., Borio C., Tsatsaronis K. (2012). Characterising the Financial Cycle: Don’t Lose Sight of the Medium-term! // BIS Working Papers. No 380.
13. Fagerberg J. (1988). International Competitiveness // The Economic Journal. Vol. 98, June. P. 355—374.
14. Felipe J., Kumar U. (2011). Unit Labor Costs in the Eurozone: The Competitiveness Debate Again // Asian Development Bank Working Paper. No 651.
15. Manila, Philippines. Gianella C., Chanteloup C. (2006). How Is Russian Trade Affected by Exchange Rate Developments? // OECD Working Paper.
16. Greenspan A. (2011). Europe’s Crisis Is All about the North-South Split // The Financial Times. October 6.
17. IMF (2012). World Economic Outlook. Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth. Washington. October.
18. Kocherlakova N. (2010). Modern Macroeconomic Models as Tools for Economic Policy / The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. May.
19. Komuki T. (2008). Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in Slovakia // IMF Working Paper. No WP/08/274.
20. Kose A. M., Otrok С., Prasad E. S. (2012). Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling? // International Economic Review. Vol. 53. P. 511—538.
21. Lo A. W. (2012). Reading about the Financial Crisis: A Twenty-One-Book Review // Journal of Economic Literature. Vol. 50, No 1. P. 151—178.
22. Mankiw G. N. (1985). Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly // Quarterly Journal of Economics. Vol. 100, No 2. P. 529—539.
23. Matheson T. (2013). The Global Financial Crisis: An Anatomy of Global Growth // IMF Working Paper. No WP/13/76. May.
24. McElhattan R. (1978). Estimating a Stable Inflation Rate of Capacity Utilization // Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review. Fall. P. 20—30.
25. Metzler L. A. (1941). The Nature and Stability of Inventory Cycles // Review of Economics and Statistics. Vol. 23, No 3. P. 113—129.
26. OECD (2010). Counter-Cyclical Economic Policy // OECD Economic Outlook Preliminary Edition. May. Ch. 6.
27. Oomes N., Dynnikova O. (2006). The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating? // IMF Working Paper. No 06/68.
28. Thirlwall A. P. (1979). The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences // Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review. Vol. 32, No 128. P. 45—53.
Review
For citations:
Mironov V., Kanofyev V. Impending recession and how to fight it: Empirical analysis of Russian reality and global experience. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2014;(1):78-107. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2014-1-78-107
Views:
588
Email this article 
