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Business uncertainty analysis using LC-curves
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-11-143-157
Abstract
The LC-curve method, a novel approach to time-series analysis, was applied to a composite Business Uncertainty Index (BUI) constructed from regular Rosstat business surveys. This approach made it possible to trace uncertainty trajectories across Russia’s major industries and sub-sectors using two index specifications: ex ante (expected) and ex post (realized). The empirical analysis for 2020—2024 demonstrates the high sensitivity of LC-curves to economic shocks and their relevance for identifying the stages of business activity across industries. Both crisis periods within the study horizon — 2020 and 2022 — were clearly captured by the curves, with the pandemic showing a more pronounced negative impact. The forecast dynamics suggest that industrial activity will enter a phase of slower growth in 2025. Particular attention is given to medium-highand high-technology industries, highlighting those that exhibit the greatest resilience and are likely to play a key role in the structural transformation of the Russian economy.
About the Authors
F. T. Aleskerov
HSE University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Fuad T. Aleskerov
Moscow
I. S. Lola
HSE University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Inna S. Lola
Moscow
D. G. Asoskov
HSE University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Dmitriy G. Asoskov
Moscow
D. A. Zabelina
HSE University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Daria A. Zabelina
Moscow
R. D. Nazarova
HSE University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Rita D. Nazarova
Moscow
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For citations:
Aleskerov F.T., Lola I.S., Asoskov D.G., Zabelina D.A., Nazarova R.D. Business uncertainty analysis using LC-curves. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2025;(11):143-157. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-11-143-157
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