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The dynamics of tax revenues and the economic cycle in the Russian Federation
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-11-5-20
Abstract
This paper aims to estimate the cyclical behavior of tax revenues of the Russian Federation budget system. Such estimates are necessary to analyze its ability to effectively smooth the economic cycle and to ensure the stability of public expenditures financing. We identified the cyclical component of the main types of taxes with the help of the Hodrick—Prescott filter. Cyclical components of tax revenues were used to calculate correlations with the cyclical component of GDP. The results show that the cyclical component of tax revenues includes corporate income tax, value-added tax on goods imported, and oil and gas revenues. The structural part includes personal income tax, value-added tax on goods sold in the Russian Federation, and excise taxes. According to the VAR modeling, taxes of the cyclical part of budget revenues cannot be characterized as automatic stabilizers.
Supporting agencies: The paper was prepared within the framework of the RANEPA state assignment research program
About the Authors
S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev
Russian Foreign Trade Academy of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Sergey G. Sinelnikov-Murylev - Dr. Sci. (Econ.), professor, General Researcher, Russian Foreign Trade Academy under the RF Ministry of Economic Development, scientific director, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.
Moscow
S. G. Belev
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Sergey G. Belev – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Senior Researcher of the Budget Policy Research Laboratory of the Applied Economic Research Institute.
Moscow
E. O. Matveev
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Evgenii O. Matveev - Researcher of the Budget Policy Research Laboratory of the Applied Economic Research Institute.
Moscow
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For citations:
Sinelnikov-Murylev S.G., Belev S.G., Matveev E.O. The dynamics of tax revenues and the economic cycle in the Russian Federation. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2025;(11):5-20. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-11-5-20
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