Preview

Вопросы экономики

Расширенный поиск
Доступ открыт Открытый доступ  Доступ закрыт Только для подписчиков

Кто кем управляет? Экономико-социологический взгляд на связь численности инвесторов и динамики фондового рынка

https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-4-94-111

Аннотация

Развитие и распространение цифровых технологий в сфере инвестиций приводит к росту популярности фондового рынка у населения. По мере выхода все большего числа обычных людей на биржу следует ожидать увеличения их влияния на рынок. Проверяется связь между численностью розничных инвесторов и динамикой основных фондовых индексов. В теоретическом плане исследование опирается на сетевой подход и социальные исследования финансов. Анализ, проведенный с помощью тестов Грейнджера и ARDL‑моделей на данных Московской биржи за период с января 2012 по декабрь 2023 г., свидетельствует о том, что динамика рынка влияет на численность инвесторов, а не наоборот. Выявленная зависимость объясняется поведением розничных инвесторов (для периода 2018—2023 гг.), влиянием цифровых технологий как рыночных устройств и контекстом соответствующего временного периода.

Об авторе

И. Б. Юдин
Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»
Россия

Юдин Иван Борисович, м. н. с. Центра статистики и мониторинга науки и инноваций Института статистических исследований и экономики знаний, аспирант кафедры экономической социологии

Москва



Список литературы

1. Аликперова Н. В. (2016). Социологические исследования инвестиционного поведения населения России // Гуманитарные науки. Вестник Финансового университета. Т. 6, № 2. С. 29–35. https://doi.org/10.12737/18148

2. Банк России (2023). Портрет розничного инвестора. https://www.cbr.ru/analytics/rcb/port_inv/

3. Банк России, MARCS (2021). Инвестиционное поведение и инвестиционные ожидания российских начинающих инвесторов в крупных городах. http://www.cbr.ru/StaticHtml/File/41186/info_2021-10-06.pdf

4. Подгорный Б. Б. (2013). Спрос и предложение на российском фондовом рынке: cоциально-экономический анализ // Современные исследования социальных проблем: [электронный журнал]. № 3 https://doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-3-23

5. Стребков Д. О. (2007). Фондовый рынок как объект социологического исследования: Возможности и перспективы (Препринт № WP4/2007/01). М.: ГУ ВШЭ.

6. Юдин И. Б. (2024). Социально-демографический портрет и ценностные установки пользователей инвестиционных приложений в России // Экономическая социология. Т. 25, № 2. С. 58–87. https://doi.org/10.17323/1726-3247-2024-2-58-87

7. Abolafia M. Y. (1998). Markets as cultures: An ethnographic approach. Sociological Review, Vol. 46, No. 1_suppl, pp. 69–85. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-954X.1998.tb03470.x

8. Abudy M. M. (2020). Retail investors’ trading and stock market liquidity. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 54, No. 101281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2020.101281

9. Andersson M., Hedesström M., Gärling T. (2014). A social-psychological perspective on herding in stock markets. Journal of Behavioral Finance, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 226–234. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2014.941062

10. Baddeley M. (2010). Herding, social influence and economic decision-making: Sociopsychological and neuroscientific analyses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 365, No. 1538, pp. 281–290. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2009.0169

11. Bogan V. (2008). Stock market participation and the Internet. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 191–211. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109000002799

12. Changwony F. K., Campbell K., Tabner I. T. (2015). Social engagement and stock market participation. Review of Finance, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 317–366. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rft059

13. Chaudhry S., Kulkarni C. (2021). Design patterns of investing apps and their effects on investing behaviors. In: Proceedings of the 2021 ACM Designing Interactive Systems Conference. New York: Association for Computing Machinery, pp. 777–788. https://doi.org/10.1145/3461778.3462008

14. Chen H.-L., Chow E. H., Shiu C.-Y. (2015). The informational role of individual investors in stock pricing: Evidence from large individual and small retail investors. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Vol. 31, pp. 36–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2014.12.001

15. Chong L.-L., Ong H.-B., Tan S.-H. (2021). Acceptability of mobile stock trading application: A study of young investors in Malaysia. Technology in Society, Vol. 64, No. 101497. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2020.101497

16. Davis G. F., Kim S. (2015). Financialization of the economy. Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 203–221. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-073014-112402

17. Escobar L., Pedraza A. (2023). Active trading and (poor) performance: The social transmission channel. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 150, No. 1, pp. 139–165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.103706

18. Fama E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. Journal of Finance, Vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 383–417. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486

19. Foucault T., Sraer D., Thesmar D. J. (2011). Individual investors and volatility. The Journal of Finance, Vol. 66, No. 4, pp. 1369–1406. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01668.x

20. Giannetti M., Koskinen Y. (2010). Investor protection, equity returns, and financial globalization. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 135–168. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109009990524

21. Granovetter M. (1983). The strength of weak ties: A network theory revisited. Sociological Theory, Vol. 1, pp. 201–233. https://doi.org/10.2307/202051

22. Guddati A., Bhat D. (2021). Analysis of pre-existing investment behavior and influence of trading apps. Journal of Student Research, Vol. 10, No. 4. https://doi.org/10.47611/jsrhs.v10i4.2212

23. Guiso L., Haliassos M., Jappelli T. (2003). Household stockholding in Europe: Where do we stand and where do we go? Economic Policy, Vol. 18, No. 36, pp. 123–170. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0327.00104

24. Hafeez B., Kabir M. H., Wongchoti U. (2022). Are retail investors really passive? Shareholder activism in the digital age. Journal of Business Finance Accounting, Vol. 49, No. 3–4, pp. 423–460. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbfa.12583

25. Han C., Shi Y. (2022). Chinese stock anomalies and investor sentiment. PacificBasin Finance Journal, Vol. 73, No. 101739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2022.101739

26. Harrington B. (2012). Scenes from a power struggle: The rise of retail investors in the US stock market. In: D. Courpasson, D. Golsorkhi, J. J. Sallaz (еds.). Research in the sociology of organizations, Vol. 34. Leeds: Emerald, pp. 233–260. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0733-558X(2012)0000034011

27. Henker J., Henker T. (2010). Are retail investors the culprits? Evidence from Australian individual stock price bubbles. European Journal of Finance, Vol. 16, No. 4, pp. 281–304. https://doi.org/10.1080/13518470902872335

28. Hong H., Kubik J. D., Stein J. C. (2004). Social interaction and stock-market participation. Journal of Finance, Vol. 59, No. 1, pp. 137–163. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2004.00629.x

29. Huang Q., Wang X., Zhang S. (2021). The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the stock market and the affecting mechanisms: Evidence from BRICS countries. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 56, article 101340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2020.101340

30. Kaniel R., Saar G., Titman S. (2008). Individual investor trading and stock returns. Journal of Finance, Vol. 63, No. 1, pp. 273–310. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.15406261.2008.01316.x

31. Kaustia M., Conlin A., Luotonen N. (2023). What drives stock market participation? The role of institutional, traditional, and behavioral factors. Journal of Banking Finance, Vol. 147, article 106743. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106743

32. Kaymaz V., Akdağ A. (2022). Rapid change in the number of investments in stock markets: The case of Turkey. Iğdır University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, No. 7, pp. 15–24. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/igdiriibf/issue/70314/1130649

33. Knorr-Cetina K. (2003). From pipes to scopes: The flow architecture of financial markets. Distinktion: Journal of Social Theory, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 7–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/1600910X.2003.9672857

34. Knorr-Cetina K. (2015). What is a financial market? Global markets as media-institutional forms. In: P. Aspers, N. Dodd (еds.). Re-imagining economic sociology, 1st ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 103–124. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198748465.003.0005

35. Knorr-Cetina K., Bruegger U. (2002). Global microstructures: The virtual societies of financial markets. American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 107, No. 4, pp. 905–950. https://doi.org/10.1086/341045

36. Knorr-Cetina K., Preda A. (2007). The temporalization of financial markets: From network to flow. Theory, Culture & Society, Vol. 24, No. 7–8, pp. 116–138. https://doi.org/10.1177/0263276407084700

37. Kumbure M. M., Lohrmann C., Luukka P., Porras J. (2022). Machine learning techniques and data for stock market forecasting: A literature review. Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 197, article 116659. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2022.116659

38. Langley P., Leyshon A. (2021). The platform political economy of FinTech: Reintermediation, consolidation and capitalisation. New Political Economy, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 376–388. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2020.1766432

39. Li W., Wang S. S. (2010). Daily institutional trades and stock price volatility in a retail investor dominated emerging market. Journal of Financial Markets, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 448–474. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.finmar.2010.07.003

40. Muniesa F., Millo Y., Callon M. (2007). An introduction to market devices. The Sociological Review, Vol. 55, No. 2_suppl, pp. 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-954X.2007.00727.x

41. Nair P. S., Shiva A., Yadav N., Tandon P. (2023). Determinants of mobile apps adoption by retail investors for online trading in emerging financial markets. Benchmarking: An International Journal, Vol. 30, No. 5, pp. 1623–1648. https://doi.org/10.1108/BIJ-01-2022-0019

42. Pal A., Indapurkar K., Gupta K. P. (2021). Gamification of financial applications and financial behavior of young investors. Young Consumers, Vol. 22, No. 3, pp. 503–519. https://doi.org/10.1108/YC-10-2020-1240

43. Preda A. (2005). The investor as a cultural figure of global capitalism. In: K. Knorr-Cetina, A. Preda (еds.). The sociology of financial markets. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 141–162. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199275595.003.0008

44. Raafat R. M., Chater N., Frith C. (2009). Herding in humans. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Vol. 13, No. 10, pp. 420–428. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2009.08.002

45. Rahman M. A., Chowdhury S. S. H., Shibley Sadique M. (2015). Herding where retail investors dominate trading: The case of Saudi Arabia. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 57, pp. 46–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2015.01.002

46. Rakovic I., Inal Y. (2023). Dark finance: Exploring deceptive design in investment apps. In: J. Abdelnour Nocera, M. Kristín Lárusdóttir, H. Petrie, A. Piccinno, M. Winckler (еds.). Human–computer interaction – INTERACT 2023. Cham: Springer, pp. 339–348. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-42280-5_20

47. Reiter-Gavish L., Qadan M., Yagil J. (2022). Investors’ personal characteristics and trading decisions under distressed market conditions. Borsa Istanbul Review, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 240–247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2021.04.005

48. Rook L. (2006). An economic psychological approach to herd behavior. Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. 40, No. 1, pp. 75–95. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.2006.11506883

49. Shiller R. J. (2003). From efficient markets theory to behavioral finance. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 83–104. https://doi.org/10.1257/089533003321164967

50. Spyrou S. (2013). Herding in financial markets: A review of the literature. Review of Behavioral Finance, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 175–194. https://doi.org/10.1108/RBF02-2013-0009

51. Stout L. A. (2010). Trust behavior: The essential foundation of financial markets. In: H. K. Baker, J. R. Nofsinger (еds.). Behavioral finance, 1st ed. Hoboken: Wiley, pp. 511–522. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118258415.ch27

52. Tan G. K. S. (2021). Democratizing finance with Robinhood: Financial infrastructure, interface design and platform capitalism. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, Vol. 53, No. 8, pp. 1862–1878. https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X211042378

53. Tong X., Preda A. (2023). Does social communication make investors stay in the market? Socio-Economic Review, Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 1865–1890. https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwad065

54. van der Zwan N. (2014). Making sense of financialization. Socio-Economic Review, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 99–129. https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwt020

55. Wang S. (2021). Consumers beware: How are your favorite “free” investment apps regulated? Duke Law Technology Review, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 43–58. https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/dltr/vol19/iss1/3

56. Wolff E. N. (2021). Household wealth trends in the United States, 1962 to 2019: Median wealth rebounds... but not enough. NBER Working Paper, No. 28383. https://doi.org/10.3386/w28383.


Дополнительные файлы

Рецензия

Для цитирования:


Юдин И.Б. Кто кем управляет? Экономико-социологический взгляд на связь численности инвесторов и динамики фондового рынка. Вопросы экономики. 2025;(4):94-111. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-4-94-111

For citation:


Iudin I.B. Who rules whom? An economic sociological perspective on the relationship between the number of investors and the stock market performance. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2025;(4):94-111. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-4-94-111

Просмотров: 367


ISSN 0042-8736 (Print)