Generate QR code
Open Access
Subscription Access
Decomposition of Russian GDP growth rates in 2007—2017 and forecast for 2018—2020
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2018-9-5-31
Abstract
The paper provides further development of the methodology of GDP growth rates decomposition, adapted for the case of Russia. It proposes the calculation of indicators of structural unemployment NAWRU and total factor productivity for the Russian economy. The paper offers estimates of structural, foreign trade and market components of GDP growth rates for various macroeconomic scenarios for 2018—2020. The sum of the components of the business cycle and random shocks is expected to be the main source of Russian GDP growth in 2018—2020, which together with the renewal of investment in 2017 may indicate the beginning of a new cycle of economic growth in Russia. Within the framework of the considered macroeconomic scenarios an expected contribution of the terms of trade component will be of an order of –1 p. p. of the yearly GDP growth rates in 2018—2020. In all major macroeconomic scenarios the structural component of GDP growth rates is expected to continue to decelerate in 2018—2020. The results suggest that the delay of structural reforms is inadvisable in order to create the prerequisites to achieve economic growth rates equal to or more than the world average.
Keywords
economic growth,
total factor productivity,
macroeconomic scenarios,
structural unemployment,
terms of trade,
state of market
JEL: E32; O47
About the Authors
S. M. Drobyshevsky
Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
Russian Federation
Moscow.
Russian Federation
Moscow.
G. I. Idrisov
Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
Russian Federation
Moscow.
Russian Federation
Moscow.
A. S. Kaukin
Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
Russian Federation
Moscow.
Russian Federation
Moscow.
P. N. Pavlov
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
Russian Federation
Moscow.
Russian Federation
Moscow.
S. G. Sinelnikov‑Murylev
Russian Foreign Trade Academy of the Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation.
Russian Federation
Moscow.
Russian Federation
Moscow.
References
1. Bessonov V. (2003). Introduction to the analy‑ sis of the Russian macroeconomic dynamics of the transition period. Moscow: IEPP. (In Russian).
2. Buklemishev O. V. (2016). Overcoming investment pause in the Russian economy. Journal of the New Economic Association, No. 1, pp. 160—167. (In Russian).
3. Guriev S., Sonin K. (2008). Economics of the “resource curse”. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 4, pp. 61—74. (In Russian).
4. Zamaraev B., Nazarova A., Sukhanov E. (2014). Financial restrictions follow the investment pause. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 4, pp. 4—43. (In Russian).
5. Idrisov G., Kaukin A., Ponomarev Yu. (2016). Dynamics of production in selected industries. In: S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev , A. D. Radygin (eds.). Russian economy in 2015. Trends and outlooks (Issue 37). Moscow: Gaidar Institute, pp. 221—232. (In Russian).
6. Knobel A. Yu. (2013). The risks of fiscal policy in countries rich in natural resources. Ekonomicheskaya Politika, No. 5, pp. 29—38. (In Russian).
7. Mau V. (2010). Lessons of the Spanish empire, or Traps of resource abundance. In: N. G. Glavatskaya (ed.). The economy in transition. Collection of selected articles. 2003—2009. Moscow: Delo, pp. 68—82. (In Russian).
8. Pavlov P., Kaukin A. (2017). Import substitution of investment goods in Russia. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 8, pp. 92—103. (In Russian).
9. Sinelnikov-Murylev S., Drobyshevsky S., Kazakova M. (2014). Decomposition of Russian GDP growth rates in 1999—2014. Ekonomicheskaya Politika, No. 5, pp. 7—37. (In Russian).
10. Auty R. (1993). Sustaining development in mineral economies: The resource curse thesis. London and New York: Routledge. Blanchard O., Johnson D. R. (2013). Macroeconomics. 6th ed. Pearson Education.
11. Elmeskov J. (1993). High and persistent unemployment: Assessment of the problem and its causes. OECD Economics Department Working Paper, No. 132.
12. Elmeskov J., MacFarlan M. (1993). Unemployment persistence. OECD Economic Studies , No. 21.
13. European Central Bank (2005). The (un)reliability of output gap estimates in real time. ECB Monthly Bulletin. February, pp. 43—45.
14. Giorno C., Richardson P., Roseveare D., van den Noord P. (1995). Estimating potential output, output gaps and structural budget balances. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 152.
15. Grigoli F., Herman A., Swiston A., Di Bella G. (2015). Output gap uncertainty and real-time monetary policy. IMF Working Paper, No. 15/14.
16. Humphreys M., Sachs J., Stiglitz J. E. (eds.) (2007). Escaping the resource curse. New York: Columbia University Press.
17. Razin A. (2004). Aggregate supply and potential output. NBER Working Paper, No. 10294.
18. Romer D. (1996). Advanced macroeconomics. New York: McGraw-Hill.
19. Solow R. M. (1962). A policy for full employment. Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 1—14.
20. Turner D., Cavalleri M., Guillemette Y., Kopoin A., Ollivaud P., Rusticelli E. (2016). An investigation into improving the real-time reliability of OECD output gap estimates. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1294.
Review
For citations:
Drobyshevsky S.M., Idrisov G.I., Kaukin A.S., Pavlov P.N., Sinelnikov‑Murylev S.G. Decomposition of Russian GDP growth rates in 2007—2017 and forecast for 2018—2020. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2018;(9):5-31. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2018-9-5-31
Views:
1798
Email this article 
