|Generate QR code
Open Access
Subscription Access
Work routines and risks of automation in the Russian labor market
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2022-8-68-94
Abstract
The study explores routine and non-routine content of job tasks across occupations in the Russian labor market. Each occupation contains a bundle of job tasks, which can be routine or non-routine, cognitive or manual. Occupations, in which most job tasks are routine, are under the risk of automation, and therefore their future is of concern. Our empirical analysis uses three main data sources that contain information in the detailed occupational breakdown: on employment, on the extent of routinization, and on annual labor incomes. This data set allows to estimate task indices for disaggregated occupations and different socio-economic groups and also present empirical estimates of wage penalties and premiums for workers with different job content. The calculations suggest that the proportion of jobs in which routine tasks tend to prevail is not large and hardly exceeds 10%. From this follows that a massive substitution of labor by machines or AI in foreseeable future does not look like a plausible option. Content of job tasks is expectedly associated with the level of pay: workers with non-routine cognitive tasks are better rewarded, and non-routine manual tasks are the most penalized. A polarization scenario feared by some observers does not seem a likely option in Russia for years to come.
About the Authors
V. E. Gimpelson
HSE University; Institute of Sociology of Federal Research Sociological Centre, RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vladimir E. Gimpelson
Moscow
R. I. Kapeliushnikov
HSE University; Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Rostislav I. Kapeliushnikov
Moscow
References
1. Acemoglu D., Autor D. (2011). Skills, tasks and technologies: Implications for employment and earnings. In: O. Ashenfelter, D. Card (eds.). Handbook of labor economics , Vol. 4b. Amsterdam: Elsevier—North Holland, pp. 1043—1171. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-7218(11)02410-5
2. Aedo C., Hentschel J., Luque J., Moreno M. (2013). From occupations to embedded skills: A cross-country comparison. World Bank Policy Research Working Papers, No. 6560. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6560
3. Arntz M., Gregory T., Zierahn U. (2016). The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries: A comparative analysis. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 189. https://doi.org/10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en
4. Autor D. (2013). The “task approach” to labor markets: An overview. NBER Working Paper, No. 18711. https://doi.org/10.3386/w18711
5. Autor D., Dorn D. (2013). The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market. American Economic Review, Vol. 103, No. 5, pp. 1553—1597. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.5.1553
6. Autor D., Katz L., Kearney M. (2008). Trends in U.S. wage inequality: Revising the revisionists. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 90, No. 2, pp. 300—323. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.90.2.300
7. Autor D., Levy F., Murnane R. (2003). The skill content of recent technological change: An empirical exploration. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 116, No. 4, pp. 1279—1333. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355303322552801
8. Basso G., Peri G., Rahman A. (2017). Computerization and immigration: Theory and evidence from the United States. NBER Working Paper, No. 23935. https://doi.org/10.3386/w23935
9. Black S. E., Spitz-Oener A. (2010). Explaining women’s success: Technological change and the skill content of women’s work. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 92, No. 1, pp. 187—194. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.2009.11761
10. Blinder A. (2009). How many US jobs might be offshorable? World Economics, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 41—78.
11. De La Rica S., Gortazar L. (2016). Differences in job de-routinization in OECD countries: Evidence from PIAAC. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 9736. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2731999
12. Deming D. J. (2017). The growing importance of social skills in the labor market.
13. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 132, No. 4, pp. 1593—1640. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx022
14. Dengler K., Matthes B., Paulus W. (2014). Occupational tasks in the German labour market. An alternative measurement on the basis of an expert database. FDZ-Methodenreport, No. 12/2014. Nuremberg: Research Data Centre of the German Federal Employment Agency at the Institute for Employment Research.
15. Dwyer R. E. (2013). The care economy? Gender, economic restructuring, and job polarization in the U.S. labor market. American Sociological Review, Vol. 78, No. 3, pp. 390—416. https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122413487197
16. Frey C. B., Osborne M. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 114, No. 2, pp. 254—280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019
17. Goos M., Manning A. (2007). Lousy and lovely jobs: The rising polarization of work in Britain. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 89, No. 1, pp. 118—133. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.89.1.118
18. Goos M., Manning A., Salomons A. (2014). Explaining job polarization: Routine-biased technological change and offshoring. American Economic Review, Vol. 104, No. 8, pp. 2509—2526. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.8.2509
19. Grossman G. M., Rossi-Hansberg E. (2008). Trading tasks: A simple theory of offshoring . American Economic Review, Vol. 98, No. 5, pp. 1978—1997. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.5.1978
20. Haas A., Lucht M., Schanne N. (2013). Why to employ both migrants and natives? A study on task-specific substitutability. Journal for Labour Market Research, Vol. 46, No. 3, pp. 201—214. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12651-013-0145-y
21. Hardy W., Keister R., Lewandowski P. (2018). Educational upgrading, structural change and the task composition of jobs in Europe. Economics of Transition, Vol. 26, No. 2, pp. 201—231. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12145
22. Jaimovich N., Siu H. E. (2012). The trend is the cycle: Job polarization and jobless recoveries. NBER Working Paper, No. 18334. https://doi.org/10.3386/w18334
23. Jensen J., Kletzer L. G. (2010). Measuring tradable services and the task content of offshorable services jobs. In: K. G. Abraham, J. R. Spletzer, M. Harper (eds.). Labor in the new economy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 309—335.
24. Katz L. F., Murphy K. M. (1992). Changes in relative wages 1963—1987: Supply and demand factors. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107, No. 1, pp. 35—78. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118323
25. Lindley J. (2012). The gender dimension of technical change and the role of task inputs. Labour Economics, Vol. 19, No. 4, pp. 516—526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2012.05.005
26. Machin S., Van Reenen J. (1998). Technology and changes in skill structure: Evidence from seven OECD countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 113, No. 4, pp. 1215—1244. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355398555883
27. Mihaylov E. S., Tijdens K. (2019). Measuring the routine and non-routine task content of 427 four-digit ISCO-08 occupations. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, No. TI 2019-035/V. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3389681
28. Nedelkoska L., Quintini G. (2018). Automation, skills use and training. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 202.
29. Nordhaus W. D. (2007). Two centuries of productivity growth in computing. Journal of Economic History, Vol. 67, No. 1, pp. 128—159. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050707000058
30. Peri G., Sparber C. (2009). Task specialization, immigration, and wages. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 135—169. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.1.3.135
31. Pflüger M., Blien U., Möller J., Moritz M. (2010). Labor market effects of trade and FDI: Recent advances and research gaps. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 5385. Bonn: IZA. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1731189
32. Rohrbach-Schmidt D., Tiemann M. (2013). Changes in workplace tasks in Germany — evaluating skill and task measures. Journal of Labour Market Research, Vol. 46, No. 2, pp. 215—237. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12651-013-0140-3
33. Salvatori A. (2015). The anatomy of job polarisation in the UK. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 9193. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2655142
34. Spitz-Oener A. (2006). Technical change, job tasks, and rising educational demands: Looking outside the wage structure. Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 235—270. https://doi.org/10.1086/499972
35. Yamaguchi S. (2013). Changes in returns to task-specific skills and gender wage gap. McMaster University Department of Economics Working Paper Series, No. 2013-01.
Review
For citations:
Gimpelson V.E., Kapeliushnikov R.I. Work routines and risks of automation in the Russian labor market. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2022;(8):68—94. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2022-8-68-94
Views:
1244
Email this article 
