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Что мы (не) знаем об эффективности инструментов ДКП в современном мире?

https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-2-5-34

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Аннотация

Решающую роль в обеспечении макроэкономической стабильности в развитых странах в период с середины 1980-х до 2007 г. сыграла денежно-кредитная политика, которая оказалась эффективным инструментом сглаживания экономического цикла и поддержания ценовой стабильности. После мирового финансового кризиса 2008—2009 гг. эффективность монетарной политики стала вызывать вопросы, поскольку, несмотря на широкое применение как традиционных, так и нетрадиционных мер, быстро восстановить экономический рост в развитых странах не удалось. В статье рассматриваются факторы, обусловившие падение эффективности монетарной политики в современных макроэкономических условиях, в числе которых глобальная дезинфляция, уменьшение наклона кривой Филлипса, проблема эффективной границы номинальных ставок и снижение нейтрального уровня реальной ставки. Анализируются нетрадиционные инструменты монетарной политики, включая так называемые «вертолетные деньги», целевое рефинансирование и другие перспективные инструменты. Критически обсуждаются рекомендации современной денежной теории (ММТ) как наиболее системной неортодоксальной альтернативной теории. На основе проведенного анализа сделаны выводы о возможном ослаблении эффективности монетарной политики в России в обозримом будущем и о целесообразности использовать гибридные фискально-монетарные инструменты.

Об авторах

Е. Л. Горюнов
Институт экономической политики имени Е. Т. Гайдара; Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ
Россия

Горюнов Евгений Львович , научный сотрудник Института Гайдара, преподаватель кафедры макроэкономики Отделения экономики Института экономики, математики и информационных технологий РАНХиГС

Москва



С. М. Дробышевский
Институт экономической политики имени Е. Т. Гайдара; Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ
Россия

Дробышевский Сергей Михайлович, доктор экономических наук, директор по научной работе Института Гайдара, замдиректора по науке Института прикладных экономических исследований (ИПЭИ) РАНХиГС

Москва



В. А. Мау
Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ
Россия

Мау Владимир Александрович, доктор экономических наук, проф., ректор

Москва



П. В. Трунин
Институт экономической политики имени Е. Т. Гайдара; Российская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФ
Россия

Трунин Павел Вячеславович, доктор экономических наук, руководитель научного направления «Макроэкономика и финансы» Института Гайдара, директор Центра изучения проблем центральных банков ИПЭИ РАНХиГС

Москва



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Для цитирования:


Горюнов Е.Л., Дробышевский С.М., Мау В.А., Трунин П.В. Что мы (не) знаем об эффективности инструментов ДКП в современном мире? Вопросы экономики. 2021;(2):5-34. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-2-5-34

For citation:


Goryunov E.L., Drobyshevsky S.M., Mau V.A., Trunin P.V. What do we (not) know about the effectiveness of the monetary policy tools in the modern world? Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2021;(2):5-34. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2021-2-5-34

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