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Some results of research on new crisis predictors
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2020-5-86-106
Abstract
The article provides some assumptions and hypotheses that have arisen as a result of a critical analysis of a new generation of crisis predictors. Three assumptions/hypotheses are submitted to the reader’s court: 1) on the possible impact of the negative spread of the yield on US Treasury bonds on the decisions of the US Federal Reserve; 2) on the effect of the central banks fulfilling the financial stability function on their monetary policy; 3) on the existence of objective reasons for Russia’s later entry into the global crisis of 2007—2009. The latter circumstance, along with the fact that some of the Russian recessions have significant internal causes, indicates the need for forming domestic crisis predictors. The assumptions and hypotheses cited in the article are debatable.
Keywords
crisis predictors,
financial markets,
economic growth,
financial stability,
profitability spreads,
financial structure,
financial condition index
JEL: E32, E43, E44, E58, G01, O16
About the Authors
Yu. A. Danilov
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Yuri A. Danilov
Moscow
D. A. Pivovarov
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Danil A. Pivovarov
Moscow
I. S. Davydov
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Igor S. Davydov
Moscow
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For citations:
Danilov Yu.A., Pivovarov D.A., Davydov I.S. Some results of research on new crisis predictors. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2020;(5):86-106. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2020-5-86-106
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