Generate QR code
Open Access
Subscription Access
Long-term macroeconomic processes and conditions for economic growth in Russia
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2017-1-40-63
Abstract
The article examines long-term macroeconomic processes that have resulted in the stagnation of the Russian economy. Such processes include the reduction of the marginal efficiency of labor and capital in a number of major activities, the distortion of motivation of investors due to multiple undervaluation of the ruble, the decline in the share of savings in the income of non-financial corporations, cyclical fluctuations in consumer behavior. The author connects possible long-term or cyclic substitution of private sources of investment for resources of the general government with controlling the dynamics of the monetary base, which is considered in the article as the endogenous, dependent variable, not the one that is exogenously set by the monetary authorities.
Keywords
savings,
accumulation,
consumer demand,
monetary base,
domestic debt,
exchange rate,
deficit,
lending
JEL: D12; E52; E60; O23; O47
About the Author
V. Manevitch
Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
1. Aganbegyan A. (2015). How the state budget can become the locomotive for socio-economic development of the country. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 7, pp. 142—151. (In Russian).
2. Afanasiev A. А., Ponomariova O. S. (2014). The production function of the Russian economy. Ekonomika i Matematicheskie Metody, No. 4, pp. 21—33. (In Russian).
3. Gurvich E., Belyakov I., Prilepsky I. (2015). The oil super cycle and fiscal policy. Voprosi Ekonomiki, No. 9, pp. 5—30. (In Russian).
4. Gurvich E., Sokolov I. (2016). Fiscal rules: The excess limitation or an essential tool of fiscal sustainability? Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 4, pp. 5—29. (In Russian).
5. Evstratov A. A., Kalinin A. M., Pargesov S. G. (2016). The use of input—output model for forecasting the effects of public policies to support demand. Problemy Prognozirovaniya, No. 1, pp. 8—16. (In Russian).
6. Idrisov G., Sinelnikov-Murilev S. (2013). Fiscal policy and economic growth. Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 8, pp. 35—55. (In Russian).
7. Minekonomrazvitiya (2013). The forecast of Russia’s socio-economic development for 2014 and the 2015—2016 planning period. Moscow: Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. (In Russian).
8. Minekonomrazvitiya (2014). The forecast of Russia’s socio-economic development for 2015 and the 2016—2017 planning period. Moscow: Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. (In Russian).
9. Minekonomrazvitiya (2015). The forecast of Russia’s socio-economic development for 2016 and the 2017—2018 planning period. Moscow: Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. (In Russian).
10. Moiseev S. R. (2016). Foreign exchange intervention: The historical experience of the Bank of Russia in 1992—2015. Dengi i Kredit, No. 6, pp. 24—31. (In Russian).
11. Pogosov I. A. (2015). Factors of long-term economic growth: Technological progress and capital intensity of production. Problemy Prognozirovaniya, No. 5, pp. 11—24. (In Russian).
12. Pogosov I. A., Sokolovskaya E. A. (2015). Factors of long-term economic growth: The ratio of capital and labor in the gross income of the economy, employment and productivity. Problemy Prognozirovaniya, No. 6, pp. 18—30. (In Russian).
13. Suvorov N. V. (2015). Topical directions and problems of improvement of modeling tools for macroeconomic analysis. Problemy Prognozirovaniya, No. 5, pp. 25—37. (In Russian).
14. Tobin J. (2009). Monetary policy and economic growth. Moscow: URSS. (In Russian).
15. Tobin J. (2015). Monetary policy in an uncertain world. In: Istoki. Moscow: HSE Publ., pp. 260—281. (In Russian).
16. Cobb W., Douglas P. H. (1928). Theory of production. American Economic Review, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 139—165.
Review
For citations:
Manevitch V. Long-term macroeconomic processes and conditions for economic growth in Russia. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2017;(1):40-63. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2017-1-40-63
Views:
1013
Email this article 
