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International trade: Research of the reasons for the fall
https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2019-1-79-91
Abstract
The article assesses the impact of various factors on the growth rate of international trade. Many experts interpreted the cross-border flows of goods decline against the backdrop of a growing global economy as an alarming sign that indicates a slowdown in the processes of globalization. To determine the reasons for the dynamics of international trade, the decompositions of its growth rate were carried out and allowed to single out the effect of the dollar exchange rate, the commodities prices and global value chains on the change in the volume of trade. As a result, it was discovered that the most part of the dynamics of international trade is due to fluctuations in the exchange rate of the dollar and prices for basic commodity groups. The negative contribution of trade within global value chains in 2014 was also revealed. During the investigated period (2000—2014), such a picture was observed only in the crisis periods, which may indicate the beginning of structural changes in the world trade.
Keywords
international trade,
globalization,
commodities,
dollar effective exchange rate,
input—output tables,
global value chains,
decomposition of growth rates
JEL: F10; F14; F60
About the Authors
V. S. Nazarov
Financial Research Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vladimir S. Nazarov
Moscow
S. S. Lazaryan
Financial Research Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Samvel S. Lazaryan
Moscow
I. V. Nikonov
Financial Research Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Ivan V. Nikonov
Moscow
A. I. Votinov
Financial Research Institute
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Anton I. Votinov
Moscow
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Review
For citations:
Nazarov V.S., Lazaryan S.S., Nikonov I.V., Votinov A.I. International trade: Research of the reasons for the fall. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2019;(1):79-91. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2019-1-79-91
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