Preview

Вопросы экономики

Расширенный поиск
Доступ открыт Открытый доступ  Доступ закрыт Только для подписчиков

Модели реальных деловых циклов: прошлое, настоящее и будущее

https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2010-10-56-67

Полный текст:

Аннотация

В статье анализируются модели реальных деловых циклов, с помощью которых можно изучать воздействие шоков и экономической политики на колебания деловой активности. Особое внимание автор уделяет технологическим шокам, а также рассматривает открытые вопросы в теории деловых циклов, в том числе в историческом контексте, и предлагает новые темы для исследования.

Об авторе

С. Ребело
Келлогская школа менеджмента; Национальное бюро экономических исследований (NBER)
Соединённые Штаты Америки
профессор Келлогской школы менеджмента, научный сотрудник NBER


Список литературы

1. Abel A. Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching up with the Joneses // American Economic Review. 1990. Vol. 80, No 2. P. 38-42.

2. Altig D., Christiano L., Eichenbaum M., Linde J. Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle / Northwestern University. 2005.

3. Altig D., Christiano L., Eichenbaum M., Linde J. Op. cit; Gali J., Lopez-Salido D., Valles J. Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy: Assessing the Fed's Performance // Journal of Monetary Economics. 2003. Vol. 50, No 4. P. 723-743.

4. Alvarez F., Veracierto M. Labor Market Policies in an EquilibriumSearch Model // NBER Macroeconomics Annual. 2000. Vol. 14. P. 265-304;

5. Ambler S., Cardia E., ZimmermannC. International Business Cycles: What are the Facts? // Journal of Monetary Economics. 2004. Vol. 51, No 2. P. 257-276.

6. Andolfatto D. Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search // American EconomicReview. 1996. Vol. 86. P. 112-132.

7. Backus D., Kehoe P. International Evidence on the Historical Properties of BusinessCycles // American Economic Review. 1992. Vol. 82, No 3. P. 864-88.

8. Barro R. Long-Term Contracting, Sticky Prices, and Monetary Policy // Journal of Monetary Economics. 1977. Vol. 3. P. 305-316.

9. Barsky R., Killian L. Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s // Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2004. Vol. 18, No 4. P. 115-134.

10. Basu S. Procyclical Productivity, Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization? // Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1996. Vol. 111, No 3. P. 719-751.

11. Baxter M. International Trade and Business Cycles // Handbook of International Economics / G. Grossman, K. Rogoff (eds.). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 1995. Vol. 3. P. 1801-64.

12. Baxter M., Crucinni M. Explaining Saving-investment Correlations // American Economic Review. 1993. Vol. 83, No 3. P. 416-436.

13. Baxter M., King R. Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium // American Economic Review. 1993. Vol. 83, No 3. P. 315-334.

14. Beaudry P., Portier F. An Exploration into Pigou's Theory of Cycles // Journal of Monetary Economics. 2004. Vol. 51, No 6. P. 1183-1216.

15. Benhabib J, . Wen Y. Indeterminacy, Aggregate Demand, and the Real Business Cycles // Journal of Monetary Economics. 2003. Vol. 51, No 3. P. 503-530.

16. Bernanke B., Gertler M., Gilchrist M. The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative BusinessCycle Framework // Handbook of Macroeconomics / J. Taylor, M. Woodford (eds.). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 1999. P. 1341-1393.

17. Boldrin M., Christiano L., Fisher J. Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle // American Economic Review. 2001. Vol. 91, No 1. P. 149-166.

18. Boldrin M., Woodford M. Equilibrium Models Displaying Endogenous Fluctuations and Chaos: A Survey // Journal of Monetary Economics. 1990. Vol. 25, No 2. P. 189-222.

19. Braun A. Tax Disturbances and Real Economic Activity in the Postwar United States // Journal of Monetary Economics. 1994. Vol. 33, No 3. P. 441-462.

20. Burns A., MitchellW. Measuring Business Cycles. N. Y.: NBER, 1946.

21. Burnside C., Eichenbaum M., Fisher J. Assessing the Effects of Fiscal Shocks // Journal of Economic Theory. 2004. Vol. 115, No 1. P. 89-117.

22. Burnside C., Eichenbaum M., Rebelo S. Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle // Journal of Political Economy. 1993. Vol. 101, No 2. P. 245-73.

23. Burnside C., Eichenbaum M., Rebelo S. Sectoral Solow Residuals // European Economic Review. 1996. Vol. 40, No 3. P. 861-869.

24. Campbell J., Cochrane J. By Force of Habit: A Consumption-based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior // Journal of Political Economy. 1999. Vol. 107, No 2. P. 205-251.

25. Carlino G., Sill K. The Cyclical Behavior of Regional Per Capita Income in the Post War Period / Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. 1998.

26. Chari V., Kehoe P. Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy // Handbook of Macroeconomics/ J. Taylor, M. Woodford (eds.). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 1999. P. 1671-1745.

27. Chari V., Kehoe P., McGrattan E. Are Structural VARs Useful Guides for DevelopingBusiness Cycle Theories? // Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper. 2004. No 631.

28. Christiano L., Eichenbaum M., Evans C. Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End? // Handbook of Macroeconomics / J. Taylor, M. Woodford (eds.). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 1999.

29. Christiano L., Eichenbaum M., Vigfusson R. What Happens after a Technology Shock? / Northwestern University. 2003.

30. Christiano L., Fitzgerald T. The Business Cycle: It's Still a Puzzle // Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives. 1998. Vol. 22. P. 56-83.

31. Christiano L., MottoM., Rostagno M. The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz Hypothesis // Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 2003. Vol. 35, No 6. P. 1119-1197.

32. ChristianoL., Eichenbaum M. Current Real Business Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations // American Economic Review. 1992. Vol. 82, No 2. P. 430-50.

33. Clarida R., Gali J., Gertler M. The Science of Monetary Policy: A New KeynesianPerspective // Journal of Economic Literature. 1999. Vol. 37, No 4. P. 1661-1707.

34. Cochrane J. Shocks // Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy. 1994. Vol. 41. P. 295-364.

35. Cogley T., Nason J. Output Dynamics in Real Business Cycle Models // American Economic Review. 1995. Vol. 85, No 3. P. 492-511.

36. Cole H., Ohanian L. New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis // Journal of Political Economy. 2004. Vol. 112, No 4. P. 779-816.

37. Cole H., Ohanian L. The Great Depression in the United States from a Neoclassical Perspective // Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review. 1999. Vol. 23, No 1. P. 2-24.

38. Comin D., Gertler M. Medium Term Business Cycles / New York University. 2004.

39. ConstantinidesG. Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle // Journal of Political Economy. 1990. Vol. 98, No 3. P. 519-543.

40. Cooley T., Ohanian L. Postwar British Economic Growth and the Legacy of Keynes // Journal of Political Economy. 1997. Vol. 105, No 3. P. 23-40.

41. Den Haan W., Ramey G., Watson J. Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks // American Economic Review. 2000. Vol. 90, No 2. P. 482-498.

42. Dixit A., Stiglitz J. Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity // American Economic Review. 1977. Vol. 67, No 3. P. 297-308.

43. Dotsey M., King R., Wolman A. State-Dependent Pricing and the GeneralEquilibrium Dynamics of Money and Output // Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1999. Vol. 114, No 2. P. 655-690.

44. Evans C. Productivity Shocks and Real Business Cycles // Journal of Monetary Economics. 1992. Vol. 29, No 2. P. 191-208.

45. Evans G., Honkapohja S. Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2001.

46. Finn M. Perfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity // Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. 2000. Vol. 32, No 3. P. 400-416.

47. Fisher J. Technology Shocks Matter / Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. 2003.

48. Friedman M. The Role of Monetary Policy // American Economic Review. 1968. Vol. 58, No 1. P. 1-17.

49. Gali J. Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations? // American Economic Review. 1999. Vol. 89. P. 249-271.

50. Gali J., Rabanal P. Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data? // NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004. MIT Press, 2005.

51. Gomes J., Greenwood J., Rebelo S. Equilibrium Unemployment // Journal of Monetary Economics. 2001. Vol. 48, No 1. P. 109-152.

52. Gordon R. The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices / National Bureau of Economic Research. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1990.

53. Greenwood J., Hercowitz Z., Krusell P. Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change // American Economic Review. 1997. Vol. 87, No 3. P. 342-362.

54. Greenwood J., Hercowitz Z., Krusell P. The Role of Investment-specific Technological Change in the Business Cycle // European Economic Review. 2000. Vol. 44, No 1. P. 91-115.

55. Hall R. Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness // American EconomicReview. 2005. Vol. 95, No 1. P. 50-65.

56. Hall R. The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry // Journal of Political Economy. 1988. Vol. 96, No 5. P. 921-947.

57. Hall R., Feldstein M., Frankel J., Gordon R., Romer C., Romer D., Zarnowitz V. The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure / NBER. 2003.

58. Hansen G. Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle // Journal of Monetary Economics. 1985. Vol. 16, No 3. P. 309-327.

59. Hodrick R., Prescott E. Post-war Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation. Working Paper, Carnegie-Mellon University. 1980.

60. Hornstein A. The Business Cycle and Industry Comovement // Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly. 2000. Vol. 86, No 1. P. 27-48.

61. Jaimovich N. Firm Dynamics and Markup Variations: Implications for Multiple Equilibria and Endogenous Economic Fluctuations / University of California, San Diego. 2004.

62. Jaimovich N. Firm Dynamics, Markup Variations, and the Business Cycle / University of California, San Diego. 2004.

63. Kim I., Loungani P. The Role of Energy in Real Business Cycle Models // Journal of Monetary Economics. 1992. Vol. 29, No 2. P. 173-190.

64. King R. Value and Capital in the Equilibrium Business Cycle Program // Value and Capital Fifty Years Later / L. McKenzie, S. Zamagni (eds.). L.: MacMillan, 1991.

65. King R., Plosser C., Rebelo S. Production, Growth, and BusinessCycles: I. The Basic Neoclassical Model // Journal of Monetary Economics. 1988. Vol. 21, No 2. P. 195-232.

66. King R., Rebelo S. Resuscitating Real BusinessCycles // Handbook of Macroeconomics / J. Taylor, M. Woodford (eds.). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 1999. P. 928-1002.

67. Kouparitsas M. Is the United States an Optimum Currency Area? An Empirical Analysis of Regional Business Cycles / Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. 2001.

68. Kydland F., Prescott E. Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations // Econometrica. 1982. Vol. 50, No 6. P. 1345-1370.

69. Long J., Plosser C. Real Business Cycles // Journal of Political Economy. 1983. Vol. 91, No 1. P. 39-69.

70. Lucas R. Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy // Econometrica. 1978. Vol. 46, No 6. P. 1429-1445.

71. Lucas R. Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory // Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 1980. Vol. 12, No 4. P. 696-715.

72. Lucas R., Prescott E. Investment Under Uncertainty // Econometrica. 1971. Vol. 39, No 5. P. 659-681.

73. McGrattan E. The Macroeconomic Effects of Distortionary Taxation // Journal of Monetary Economics 1994. Vol. 33, No 3. P. 573-601.

74. Mehra R., Prescott E. The Equity Premium in Retrospect // Handbook of the Economics of Finance / G. Constantinides, M. Harris, R. Stulz (eds.). Elsevier, 2003.

75. Mehra R., Prescott E. The Equity Premium: A Puzzle // Journal of Monetary Economics. 1985. Vol. 15, No 2. P. 145-161.

76. Merz M. Search in the Labor Market and the Real Business Cycle // Journal of Monetary Economics. 1995. Vol. 36, No 2. P. 269-300.

77. Mortensen D., Pissarides C. Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment // Review of Economic Studies. 1994. Vol. 61, No 3. P. 397-415.

78. Prescott E. Theory Ahead of Business-Cycle Measurement // Carnegie-Rochester ConferenceSeries on Public Policy. 1986. Vol 25. P. 11-44.

79. Ramey V., Shapiro M. Costly CapitalReallocation and the Effects of Government Spending // Carnegie-Rochester ConferenceSeries on Public Policy. 1998. Vol. 48. P. 145-194.

80. Rebelo S. Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future / Northwestern University, NBER, CEPR. 2005.

81. Rogerson R. Indivisible Labor, Lotteries and Equilibrium // Journal of Monetary Economics. 1988. Vol. 21, No 1. P. 3-16.

82. Rotemberg J., Woodford M. Imperfect Competitionand the Effect of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity // Journal of Money Credit and Banking. 1996. Vol. 28, No 4. P. 549-577.

83. Smets F., Wouters R. An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area // Journal of the European Economic Association. 2003. Vol. 1, No 5. P. 1123-1175.

84. Sundaresan S. Intertemporally Dependent Preferences and the Volatilityof Consumptionand Wealth // Review of Financial Studies. 1989. Vol. 2, No 1. P. 73-88.

85. Wen Y. Can a Real Business Cycle Model Pass the Watson Test? // Journal of Monetary Economics. 1998. Vol. 42, No 1. P. 185-203.

86. Wen Y. Capacity Utilization Under Increasing Returns to Scale // Journal of Economic Theory. 1998. Vol. 81, No 1. P. 7-36.


Рецензия

Для цитирования:


Ребело С. Модели реальных деловых циклов: прошлое, настоящее и будущее. Вопросы экономики. 2010;(10):56-67. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2010-10-56-67

For citation:


Rebelo S. Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future. Voprosy Ekonomiki. 2010;(10):56-67. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2010-10-56-67

Просмотров: 911


ISSN 0042-8736 (Print)