voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2012-3-120-147voprecotest-784Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ТРУДА И СОЦИАЛЬНОЙ СФЕРЫLABOR AND SOCIAL ECONOMICSСпрос и предложение высококвалифицированной рабочей силы в России: кто бежал быстрее? Часть IIDemand and Supply of Skilled Labor in Russia: Who Ran Faster? Part IIКапелюшниковР.KapeliushnikovR.

доктор экономических наук, главный научный сотрудник ИМЭМО РАН, замдиректора ЦеТИ НИУ ВШЭ

ИМЭМО РАН; Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияInstitute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences; National Research University Higher School of EconomicsRussian Federation20122003201203120147Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20122012Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/784

В статье анализируется динамика спроса и предложения высококвалифицированной рабочей силы в российской экономике в 1990—2000-е годы. Автор приходит к выводу, что, несмотря на огромный приток на рынок труда работников с третичным образованием, спрос на них со стороны предприятий рос в этот период опережающими темпами. Это объясняет: почему безработица среди работников с высоким образованием оставалась низкой; почему показатели отдачи от образования были высокими; почему доля выпускников вузов и ссузов, занятых по профессиям, не требующим высокой квалификации, в 2000-е годы непрерывно снижалась. Однако в ближайшие десятилетия соотношение между спросом и предложением может измениться; не исключено, что российская экономика столкнется с масштабным перепроизводством дипломированной рабочей силы.

The paper examines the dynamics in demand and supply of skilled labor in the Russian economy over the transition period of 1990—2000s. It shows that despite a huge inflow of workers with tertiary education demand for such workers grew in the Russian labor market even faster. This explains why unemployment for workers with high educational attainment remained low; why returns to education continued to be high; why a proportion of college graduates who occupied low-skilled jobs decreased rather than increased. However in the next decades the correlation between demand and supply might radically change so that the Russian economy could face massive oversupply of highly educated workforce.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.