voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2012-3-52-79voprecotest-781Research ArticleМАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ПОЛИТИКАMACROECONOMIC POLICYСтарение населения и угроза бюджетного кризисаPopulation Aging and Risks of Budget CrisisКудринА.KudrinA.

кандидат экономических наук, профессор

ГурвичЕ.GurvichE.

кандидат физико-математических наук, руководитель

Санкт-Петербургский государственный университетРоссияSaint Petersburg State UniversityRussian FederationЭкономическая экспертная группаРоссияEconomic Expert GroupRussian Federation201220032012035279Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20122012Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/781

В работе рассматривается влияние глобальных демографических тенденций на бюджетные расходы и возможные ответные меры. Авторы приходят к выводу, что без проведения глубоких реформ в нашей стране демографические сдвиги могут потребовать удвоения (в процентах ВВП) государственных расходов на пенсии и здравоохранение к середине XXI в. При разработке пенсионной реформы необходимо учитывать не только соответствие возникающих финансовых обязательств имеющимся ресурсам, но и политэкономический аспект: достаточное обеспечение интересов всех поколений. Предлагается новый способ определения оптимальной пенсионной политики: она должна имитировать поведение граждан на протяжении жизненного цикла, если бы они располагали всей полнотой информации и имели длительный горизонт планирования. Оптимальная в этом смысле реакция государства на увеличение продолжительности жизни состоит в постоянной коррекции пенсионного возраста при сохранении пропорции между длительностью труда и пребывания на пенсии. Такая стратегия обеспечивает стабильность коэффициента замещения и не изменяет баланса отношений между поколениями. Возможность повышения пенсионного возраста обусловлена тем, что рост общей продолжительности жизни происходит преимущественно за счет продления активной, здоровой жизни при минимальном увеличении периода нездоровья.

The impact of global aging on fiscal expenditure and possible ways to address this challenge are considered in the article. The authors conclude that if ambitious reforms are not implemented, relative spending on public health and social security may double by mid-XXI century. Pension reform should aim not only at avoiding excessive financial commitments, but more generally at securing due interests of all generations. A new approach to defining optimal pension policy is suggested. It is specified as a policy that mimics choices on work duration and savings, made by a person with full knowledge and long horizon. The best reaction to aging from this viewpoint is an increase in retirement age keeping constant leisure/labor ratio. This strategy ensures the stability of replacement rates and does not affect intergeneration accounts. Longer employment is feasible, as higher life expectancy is accompanied with proportional increase in healthy life expectancy.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.