voprecotestВопросы экономикиVoprosy Ekonomiki0042-8736Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP10.32609/0042-8736-2026-7-109-133voprecotest-6240Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА ТРУДА И СОЦИАЛЬНОЙ СФЕРЫLABOR AND SOCIAL ECONOMICSНеравенство доходов и детские пособия в России: микросимуляционный анализIncome inequality and child benefits in Russia: A microsimulation analysishttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4292-3597КарцеваМ. А.KartsevaM. A.

Карцева Марина Анатольевна, к. э. н., замдиректора центра Институт социального анализа и прогнозирования (ИНСАП) Института прикладных экономических исследований (ИПЭИ)

Москва

Marina A. Kartseva 

Moscow 

kartseva-ma@ranepa.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1524-5620КузнецоваП. О.KuznetsovaP. O.

Кузнецова Полина Олеговна, к. э. н., вед. н. с. ИНСАП ИПЭИ

Москва

Polina O. Kuznetsova 

Moscow 

kuznetsova-po@ranepa.ruРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте РФРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public AdministrationRussian Federation20260807202607109133Copyright © Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP, 20262026Voprosy Ekonomiki, NPVoprosy Ekonomiki, NPhttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://www.vopreco.ru/jour/article/view/6240

Детские пособия могут не только снижать риски детской бедности, но и способствовать уменьшению доходного неравенства населения. С помощью микросимуляционного анализа оценено влияние детских пособий на неравенст‑ во располагаемых доходов в России. Эмпирической основой исследования стали данные национально репрезентативного Выборочного наблюдения дохо‑ дов населения и участия в социальных программах (ВНДН), проводимого Росстатом. В качестве индикаторов неравенства использованы коэффициент Джини и коэффициент фондов. Результаты анализа показывают, что в период с 2013 по 2019 г. детские пособия лишь незначительно снижали неравенство располагаемых доходов населения. В 2020—2023 гг. вклад детских пособий в снижение доходного неравенства существенно увеличился, что во многом обусловлено проведенной в этот период реформой федеральных детских пособий. Смоделировано влияние альтернативных схем детских пособий — универсальных, адресных и квазиуниверсальных, проведен сравнительный анализ их вклада в снижение неравенства при разных уровнях финансиро‑ вания. Сценарное моделирование показало, что при сопоставимом объеме финансирования показатели неравенства в большей степени чувствительны к адресным пособиям, выплачиваемым по критерию нуждаемости. При доста‑ точно высоком уровне финансирования в качестве перспективных направлений развития адресных пособий могут быть рассмотрены расширение охвата за счет ослабления критерия нуждаемости и дополнительная поддержка детей младших возрастов. Полученные результаты позволяют рассматривать детские пособия не только как инструмент противодействия детской бедности, но и как важный элемент политики сокращения доходного неравенства в России.

Child benefits can not only reduce the risk of child poverty but also help decrease overall income inequality. Using microsimulation analysis, the paper assesses the impact of child benefits on disposable income inequality in Russia. The empirical basis of the study is nationally representative data from the Survey of Income and Participation in Social Programs conducted by Rosstat (the Federal State Statistics Service). The Gini coefficient and the decile ratio are used as indicators of inequality. The results show that between 2013 and 2019 child benefits only slightly reduced inequality in disposable incomes. In 2020—2023, the contribution of child benefits to the reduction of income inequality increased substantially, largely due to the federal child benefit reform implemented over this period. The paper also conducts scenario simulations of alternative child benefits designs — universal, means-tested, and quasi-universal — and compares their contribution to inequality reduction under different funding levels. The simulations indicate that, for an equal budget, inequality indicators are more responsive to means‑tested benefits targeted on low-income households. Under sufficiently high funding, promising directions for the development of means-tested benefits include expanding coverage by relaxing the eligibility criteria and providing additional support to younger children. The findings suggest that child benefits should be viewed not only as a tool to alleviate child poverty but also as an important instrument of income inequality reduction policy in Russia.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.